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NFL Betting Primer: Picks & Predictions (Week 8)

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Week 8's Sunday schedule brings plenty of value across the board - from bounce-back favorites to live-dog matchups begging for teaser exposure. It's also one of the most prop-friendly slates of the season, with several teams facing bottom-five pass defenses and vulnerable red-zone units.

Our 5-Star Prop Bet Cheat Sheet continues to deliver at near-elite levels (59% win rate, +93 units YTD), while yardage props - passing, rushing, and receiving - have been our biggest moneymaker (72% win rate, 38% ROI). Keep your prop card tight and data-driven this week; the inefficiencies are in the alt-yards markets, not the spreads.

The official plays are up to 20-21-1 so far through seven weeks. Starting to hit my stride over the last month. I CAN SMELL. 500. LFG.

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NFL Week 8 Betting Primer (2025)

Top-5 Best Bets:

  • BUF/CAR over 46.5
  • PHI/NYG under 44.0
  • Patriots -7
  • Bucs -3.5
  • HOU/SF under 42.5

Top Player Props:

Anytime TD Bets:

Cincinnati Bengals vs New York Jets - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET

BettingPros consensus odds:



Erickson's Pick: Pass

Confidence: ★★☆☆☆

Trends:

  • The Jets have lost each of their last 11 games as underdogs.
  • The Jets have conceded the first touchdown in each of their last seven games.
  • The Jets have lost the first half in each of their last six games.
  • The Bengals have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven home games when playing with a rest advantage.
  • Nine of the Bengals’ last 10 home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Jets’ last 14 games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

Feels like the public is ready to ride Joe Flacco into the sunset...while conversely burying the Jets into oblivion.

Joe Burrow is nearly worth 6 points ATS according to Yahoo Sports. This preseason spread was Bengals -7.5. Two games with Joe Flacco, and the point spread is nearly identical to what it was forecasted to be with Burrow as the Bengals’ QB1.

This game scares me from choosing sides. In theory, the only thing the Jets offense can do "well" is run the ball against one of the league's worst run defenses (6th-most rushing yards per game and 5th-highest EPA/rush allowed).

But the Jets are still the Jets. They are 0-7 for a reason and have Justin Fields lined up to start again.

Garrett Wilson and Sauce Gardner are BOTH out this week.  And New York's best RB...Breece Hall...is also banged up. Not to mention, the next “top” pass catchers, Josh Reynolds and Mason Taylor, are also on the injury report.

There are better underdogs to back this week than the Jets if I can choose to do so, but I agree with Pat Fitzmaurice that this line is vastly overinflated with Flacco off a prime-time game.

Said this before. What we see from AFC North games does not always carry over to the next week.

Keep in mind that the Jets are 0-5 in close games this season. They've played games more tightly than most 0-7 teams have. And their defense has allowed just 13 points in back-to-back weeks.

I’m just staying away this week.

Carolina Panthers vs Buffalo Bills - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET

BettingPros consensus odds:
Erickson's Pick: Over 46.5

Confidence: ★★★☆☆

Trends:

  • The Panthers have lost each of their last 13 games against teams that held a winning record.
  • Panthers have won 4 games in a row as home underdogs
  • The Panthers have covered the spread in 12 of their last 15 games as underdogs.
  • The Panthers have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games at Bank of America Stadium.
  • Nine of the Panthers’ last 10 games at Bank of America Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Bills have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games.
  • Bills have scored 30+ points in 14 of their previous 19 games with their starters playing.
  • The Bills have won seven of their last nine games following a loss (3-2 ATS).
  • The Bills have covered the spread in 13 of their last 17 games.
  • The Bills have won 25 of their last 33 games.
  • The Buffalo Bills are 26-10 as a favorite since the start of last season, but just 17-19 against the spread (ATS).
  • The Bills are 10-5 O/U since the start of 2024 (49+ points per game).

Overall:

Andy Dalton is 1-5 SU and ATS as a member of the Carolina Panthers in six starts over the last two seasons. He beat the Raiders, led by Gardner Minshew. Otherwise, his 5 losses came in point margins by: 10, 26, 18, 33, and 10. 5-1 toward the over.

So, although the Panthers underdog trends are strong...it's not with Dalton under center.

But this might be more by random circumstances than fact, as the spread isn't moving too dramatically with Dalton versus Bryce Young...even though many feel the Panthers' offensive outlook might improve with the Red Rifle under center.

And the Panthers are a much better team at home than on the road.

The Bills are coming off back-to-back prime time losses, and they've dropped four games in a row ATS.

However, under Sean McDermott, Buffalo has righted the ship after the bye weeks. 5-2-2 ATS (71%) since 2017.

Josh Allen has never lost three consecutive regular-season games in his NFL career (Next Gen Stats).

Allen is 7-0 with 15 total TD, 2 INT, and a 100.8 passer rating in games following a 2-game losing streak.

Because I like both teams to play well...give me the game total going over 46.5 points.

Carolina should be able to run on the Bills for more chunk yardage. The Panthers are fifth in pass rate under expectation this season, as they aim to establish a run game featuring Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle. No team has allowed more rushes for 10-plus yards this season than the Bills (5.1 per game). Even if the Bills get some defensive players back (Matt Milano, Terrel Bernard), DT DaQuan Jones is still out. And it remains to be seen how much of a boost defensively Buffalo will get with suspended players DE Michael Hoecht and DT Larry Ogunjobi back in the fold.

Dowdle has 14 rushes of 10-plus yards this season (fourth-most). He also leads the NFL with 468 rush yards and 569 scrimmage yards since Week 5. Dowdle has 185 more rush yards and 118 more scrimmage yards than any other player in the NFL over that span (Next Gen Stats).

The Panthers’ run defense is legit. 3rd in run defense DVOA. They have allowed less than 44 rushing yards per game over the last three games.

One RB they have faced this season has more than 72 rushing yards...and it was back in Week 1. Travis Etienne, when he ripped off a 71-yard TD,

Derrick Brown is PFF's second-highest graded defensive lineman this season. Fade James Cook’s rushing yards this week.

Props:

Houston Texans vs San Francisco 49ers - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET

BettingPros consensus odds:

Erickson's Pick: Under 42.5 (lean 49ers ML/+2.5)

Confidence: ★★★★☆

Trends:

  • The Texans have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 11 games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
  • The 49ers have won 11 of their last 13 games when playing with a rest advantage.
  • Seven of the 49ers’ last 10 games following a win have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Five of the 49ers’ last six road games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Three of the 49ers' last four games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Texans are 0-2 O/U at home this season (32.5 PPG)
  • Sixteen of the Texans' last 24 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Thirteen of the Texans’ last 22 wins have been by seven or fewer points.
  • Ten of the Texans' last 11 games as home favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Texans have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 12 games as favorites following a road loss.
  • Since 2023, Houston is 5-7-1 as a home favorite ATS (sub-50%).

Overall:

I talked about this matchup on the early lookahead show for Week 8...but how are the 49ers underdogs here? The Texans’ offense is in such bad shape with Nico Collins out with a concussion.

They can't run the ball, and they can't protect C.J. Stroud. And with the 49ers' coming in with rest advantage - to hopefully get some guys healthier - I love them here to just win outright. This game will be close through four quarters, so I'll just take the plus-money side with the 49ers on the ML (or the +2.5).

Houston's defense forced four turnovers versus Seattle...and they still lost.

But I love the under in this game the most as my best bet. The Texans’ defense is legit – the NFL's best scoring defense in 2025, allowing just 14.7 points per game.

Per Next Gen Stats...Kyle Shanahan is 1-4 in his career as a head coach or offensive coordinator when facing the No. 1 scoring offense in Week 8 or later, including the playoffs.

That stat alone...makes me want to tease this game as well. 49ers +7.5 (Texans don't have the offensive capacity to blow teams out) and tease the total up to 44.5 with the under in mind. -110 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Seven of the 49ers’ last 10 games following a win have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Texans are 0-2 O/U at home this season (32.5 PPG).
  • Thirteen of the Texans’ last 22 wins have been by seven or fewer points.
  • And 10 of the Texans' last 11 games as home favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.

Plus a George Kittle bounce-back game? You bet.

George Kittle has had six games with one or fewer receptions since 2021. He is averaging 19.1 fantasy PPG in the following game.

The 49ers’ next game comes on National TE Day.

Those six games....

  • 6-151
  • 7-126
  • 5-78
  • 3-67-3
  • 4-84-2
  • 9-181-2

Averaged 114.5 receiving yards per game...and over one TD. Kittle anytime TD is a MY HARD ROCK BET OF THE WEEK.

Also +500 with that TD call with the SF +7.5 and the UNDER at 44.5 points. SGP. LFG.

Jayden Higgins is NOT catching 3.5 passes. He goose-egged last week after stepping in for Nico Collins, who will miss this game with a concussion.

Keep in mind that Texans WR1 - Collins - has finished UNDER his receptions prop in all but one game this season - and he's only finished with more than four catches once.

This seems like an aggressive reception number for a rookie WR - playing in a broken Texans offense. Higgins leads the Texans in ADOT, which means he will see more or less catchable targets. Very possible he goes OVER his yardage prop - given the 49ers rank 25th in EPA versus the deep ball. But for him to accumulate four receptions...seems aggressive.

Collins, as the team's true established alpha, has struggled to hit this prop.

Conversely, I love the over on Dalton Schultz at 5.5 receptions. The Texans TE was a priority target last week – 9-98 on 10 targets. The 49ers can't stop tight ends without Fred Warner, as Kyle Pitts caught seven balls versus this defense in their first game without Warner. Cade Otton also went for five catches vs San Fran when Warner got injured.

Schultz also has at least five catches in four straight games - and that was with Collins in the lineup.

Props:

Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET

BettingPros consensus odds:

Erickson's Pick: Under 44 (Lean Eagles -7)

Confidence: ★★★☆☆

Trends:

  • The Eagles have won each of their last 12 home games against the Giants.
  • The Eagles have been the first to 20 points in each of their last 10 home games against NFC East opponents.
  • The Eagles have covered the spread in four of their last five home games against NFC East opponents.
  • Each of the Eagles’ last four games against NFC opponents has gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Eagles are 10-17-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season. They covered just 10 spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
  • The Eagles are 17-5-2 ATS when their defense allowed fewer than 20 points since the start of last season (70%).
  • The Eagles are 5-9 O/U at home since the start of 2024 (>45 PPG).
  • Eight of the Eagles' last 11 home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • New York is 4-5-1 ATS after a win since 2023.
  • New York is 7-12 ATS as a road underdog since 2023 (3-16 straight up).
  • The Giants have lost 18 of their last 22 road games.

Overall:

The Eagles have won 12 straight versus the Giants at home. But we all know what happened the last time these teams faced off (insert shirtless Cam Skattebo image).

I can't help but imagine the Eagles want to settle the score after getting beaten down by Big Blue just two weeks ago.

And this matchup will be different, given that the Eagles will have Jalen Carter and Quinyon Mitchell available for the entire contest. Mitchell is huge for this defense.

Per Next Gen Stats...Adoree' Jackson, Kelee Ringo, and Jakorian Bennett have combined to allow 7.9 yards per target this season, compared to Darius Slay's 5.8 yards per target last season. This has come on easier matchups as well, with Quinyon Mitchell shadowing top receivers this year. Opposing quarterbacks have targeted these three corners on 22.4% of coverage snaps this season and generated +17.8 EPA on those targets, while losing -1.3 EPA targeting Mitchell.

The Eagles’ defense has allowed 5.1 yards per target to opposing receivers aligned in the slot this season, the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

They have allowed more than 70 yards to receivers aligned in the slot over the past two weeks, including 73 yards and their lone touchdown allowed on the season in Week 6 against the Giants, after previously allowing fewer than 60 yards and no touchdowns to slot receivers in each of Weeks 1-5.

If they can limit Wan'Dale Robinson and slow down the rushing attack, this could be a tough outing for Dart and company.

Throw in the home-field advantage and the Giants' coming off a brutal loss to the Broncos...I'm guessing they won't find as much success in this rematch.

But the Eagles’ offense is a tad bit more banged up...A.J. Brown is OUT with a hamstring. Cam Jurgens got hurt last week and will also be out, and it’s just another injury to the Eagles' OL.

However, this is somewhat leveled out by the Giants' defense...that has major issues in the secondary and defensive line with a myriad of injuries.

Since Jaxson Dart took over as the QB, the Giants have gone 4-0 in the first quarter. Last week was the first week they failed to score a TD on the opening drive.

Even so, they have started fast, and that might be the best angle to take if you want the best number on the Eagles (the side I like the most). And usually, betting AGAINST the rookies on the road early in their careers is the right bet to make.

I also lean toward the under....as this is where Eagles’ home games typically end up finishing. Last week's passing attack was a 99th percentile outcome for his team. And the Eagles are still -3% PROE as they are desperately (and failing) to get Saquon Barkley going.

This game total was 40.5 the last time these two played, despite the Eagles being 7-point favorites.

New England Patriots vs Cleveland Browns - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET

BettingPros consensus odds:

Erickson's Pick: Patriots -7

Confidence: ★★★★☆

Trends:

  • The Browns have lost each of their last 11 road games.
  • In each of the Patriots’ last eight games as favorites, their opponents have scored first.
  • The Patriots have covered the spread in each of their last four games.
  • Seven of the Patriots’ last nine home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Browns' last 12 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • According to VSIN...Rookie quarterbacks have struggled for bettors as early-season starters, going 6-26-1 SU and 12-20-1 ATS (36%) in their last 24 week 1-3 games. They are also on a 29-12 Under the total run in their last 41 such contests.
  • Rookie QBs are below 50% ATS on the road. As small road dogs...are 42% ATS when catching +4.5 or fewer.
  • Dillon Gabriel is 0-2 ATS way from Cleveland this season (Browns are 0-3 ATS on the road this season).
  • The Browns are 3-11-1 ATS as road underdogs since 2023 (2-8 ATS since 2024).

Overall:

The Browns’ formidable defense doesn't play nearly as well on the road as they do at home. They have allowed 21-plus points in all three road games and go 0-4 ATS on the road. They've lost all their true road games by double-digits.

Rookie QBs also aren't nearly as good on the road compared to at home, except for rookie QBs facing the Broncos in Denver this season (ironic enough).

The Pats can stop the Browns' run game with the third-highest ranked defense in EPA.

I like the under on Quinshon Judkins' total yards from scrimmage.

The Patriots’ defense has allowed 2.5 yards after contact per carry on designed runs this season, the 3rd-fewest in the NFL, 2nd-fewest rushing yards allowed per game (59).

And although they have allowed the second-most receptions and 5th-most yards to RBs...Judkins has been sparingly used as a pass-catcher with Dillon Gabriel as the QB.

He has one catch and three targets in the last three games. Fewer targets than Jerome Ford and Dylan Sampson, while running fewer routes than Ford–44th in total routes run among RBs. His playing time on 3rd downs has dropped in three consecutive weeks.

De’Von Achane is the only starting RB the Pats have faced this season that has gone over 80 yards from scrimmage against them.

And since CB Christian Gonzalez has returned, they are allowing fewer than 20 PPG.

The Browns scored 20 points for the first time last week against the lowly Dolphins.

Mike Vrabel has intel on this Browns personnel after spending time with them last year as a coaching consultant.

Drake Maye leads the NFL in passer rating, and that is how you attack the Browns. Just 20th in deep pass EPA and 19th versus intermediate passing.

Maye has thrown two or more touchdowns in five of the Patriots' last six games. The Patriots have heavily relied on their passing game this season, with the RBs struggling to take off in most matchups.

Given how elite the Browns’ run defense is....I think the Pats just rely on Maye's arm to get the win by a touchdown - if not by double-digits (the theme with all Browns road games this season).

Props:

Baltimore Ravens vs Chicago Bears - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET

BettingPros consensus odds:

Erickson's Pick: Pass

Trends:

  • The Bears have lost eight of their last nine road games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Bears have covered the spread in each of their last four games.
  • The Bears have scored first in each of their last four games.
  • The Bears have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 12 games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
  • The Bears have lost 10 of their last 12 road games following a win.
  • Six of the Ravens’ last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Ravens are 3-1 toward the over at home this season.
  • The Ravens have covered the spread in 13 of their last 19 games following a loss.
  • Ten of the Ravens’ last 11 games following a loss have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Since 2023, Baltimore is 9-3-1 O/U (80%) following a loss.
  • 13-14 ATS as home favorites and 10-5-1 ATS as home favorites in their last 16 (6-4-1 ATS as home favorites in 2024).
  • Baltimore is 7-4-1 ATS as home favorites since 2024 - only once have they failed to cover a spread of fewer than 6 points.
  • Baltimore is 3-3-1 ATS as a home underdog since 2021.

**Editor’s Note: Lamar Jackson was ruled out for Sunday’s game on Saturday.

Overall:

Is Lamar Jackson playing? All indications suggest yes, that the Ravens QB will be making his return after missing the last two games with a hamstring injury.

There are no explicit trends that suggest the Ravens have a major edge coming off a bye week - but getting guys back healthy after they were so injured does matter substantially.

Roquan Smith, Ronnie Stanley, fullback Patrick Ricard, and cornerback Chidobe Awuzie are all expected to return.

And the Bears are in a total polar (see what I did there) position. All sorts of banged up - especially in their secondary with Kyler Gordon and Tyrique Stevenson out.

The Bears tend to play much worse on the road than at home - especially in the Caleb Williams era - boasting just a 3-8 record straight up. 4-6-1 ATS as road underdog (and road in general).

The Ravens know they need to go on a run to dig out of their 1-5 hole. And a banged-up Bears defense might be exactly what the doctor ordered.

Chicago's four-game win streak has been fueled by turnovers, given that they have generated 3-plus in every contest while conceding just two of their own turnovers.

Get this: Per Next Gen Stats...despite ranking last in yards per play allowed (6.2), the Bears lead the NFL with 16 takeaways in 2025.

Only 1 team in the Super Bowl Era has led the NFL in takeaways and been last in yards per play allowed in the same season: the 1995 Cardinals who went 4-12.

Ie, the Bears look more like the 1-5 team than the Ravens do.

The Ravens are typically solid bets after a loss, and part of that trend is considering they have Jackson back under center. As solid options at home as well...this one is an easy pick for me.

Take the Ravens -7.0. The Bears are in for a rude awakening against a healthy Baltimore varsity squad.

Caleb Williams has rushed over 3.5 times in every single game this season.

Lamar Jackson - before he got injured versus the Chiefs - had thrown for more than 1.5 passing TDs in 13 of his last 14 games played. Only one QB (Dak Prescott, ironically) has yet to throw at least 2 TD passes versus the Bears. Chicago ranks dead last in terms of play-action passes, whereas the Ravens rank first with Jackson (perfect passer rating).

Props:

Atlanta Falcons vs Miami Dolphins - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET

BettingPros consensus odds:

Erickson's Pick: Over 44.5

Confidence: ★★☆☆☆

Trends:

  • Each of the Falcons’ last 10 home games against AFC opponents has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Falcons are 7-4 ATS in their last 11 home games as underdogs and 11-7 as home favorites on the ML.
  • Six of the Falcons’ last eight home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • In each of the Dolphins’ last six games as road underdogs, their opponents have been the first to 15 points.
  • The Dolphins have lost each of their last five road games.
  • The Dolphins have lost each of their last six road games as underdogs.
  • Dolphins have lost 11 straight games as underdogs.
  • Miami is sub-25% ATS as an underdog dating back to last season and has gone 3-15 overall since 2023. They are 5-16 as an underdog in their last 21 applicable games.
  • The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 14 games as road underdogs.
  • Five of the Dolphins' last six games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Ten of the Dolphins’ last 14 road games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

The Falcons’ defense looked like a juggernaut to start the season, but a few injuries to key defensive players, such as Jalon Walker and Divine Deablo, should create some hesitation about investing too heavily in the Dirty Birds this weekend.

The 49ers ran down their throats, and I'd envision Miami can find some similar offensive success with De'Von Achane running on the fast track.

We know that Atlanta - regardless of which QB starts - is going to run all over Miami's 32nd-ranked run defense. Heck, Atlanta could throw all over Miami as well (32nd in pass defense EPA), but we know they want to run the football with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier.

You can only feel "good" about Atlanta when they are at home, but -7 is a lot of points to lay with a Michael Penix/Kirk Cousins team...especially considering Miami's offense should be able to move the ball indoors. Note that it came out on Saturday that Cousins is likely to start this game with Penix (knee) banged up.

Per Next Gen Stats...

The Falcons have blitzed on a league-leading 47.8% of opposing dropbacks this season, generating 5.6 pressures a game on average (4th-most) and 1.4 sacks a game (3rd-most) when doing so.

However, their pressure rate (43.8%) when blitzing is only slightly above league average (42.2%). Against the blitz, Tua Tagovailoa has recorded a 110.6 passer rating, completing 62.2% of passes for six touchdowns and one interception, leading to 7.0 pass EPA. Against four or fewer rushers, Tagovailoa's passer rating drops to 73.7, completing passes at a slightly higher rate (69.4%), but racking up five touchdowns and nine interceptions for a negative pass EPA (-1.0).

The Dolphins were in a terrible spot last week on the road versus Cleveland. And they qualify as a "Close Your Eyes Special" as a team that got blown out by 21-plus to catch a touchdown or more the following week. Before kick off, the look-ahead lines spread was Falcons -5.5. And despite both teams laying turds...only the Falcons (who might be starting Kirk Cousins) got the love.

Miami's offense hasn't been its true problem (mostly defense and turnovers), given that they have scored 24-plus points in over half their games.

Instead of choosing sides, opt for the over (presuming Jaylen Waddle plays, which is expected).

Allgeier has 9 RZ touches this season - and has scored a TD in half of his games. With the Dolphins’ bottom-ranked run defense coming to town...I think Allgeier scores. The Falcons also LOVE to get the ball first - S/O Coachspeak Index - so I think he's got a decent shot at scoring the 1st TD in this game at +850.

Falcons OC Zac Robinson talked up Allgeier this week - citing as much as they want to play Bijan as much as possible - can't come at the expense of TA. Game flow should work perfectly in his favor to get the Falcons' hammer loose.

And like always, just bet the Bijan Robinson 1st-half TD to change that minus into a plus. We know he's going to score...and it probably won't take a full half for it to happen. A Joe Pisapia approach that has yet to fail me (that I can remember) this season.

Props:

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Sunday, 1:00 PM ET

BettingPros consensus odds:

Erickson's Pick: Buccaneers -3.5

Confidence: ★★★★★

Trends:

  • The Buccaneers have won each of their last 10 games against NFC opponents on a losing streak.
  • The road team has covered the spread in each of the last seven games between the Buccaneers and Saints.
  • The Buccaneers have scored the first touchdown in each of their last seven road games against the Saints.
  • The Bucs have covered the spread 6 times following a loss. Also, 12-4 ATS after a loss (75%). 10 of the last 11 games covered after a loss.
  • The road team has covered the spread in seven of the Buccaneers' last nine games.
  • The Buccaneers are 16-6 ATS on the road since 2023 (73%) - Second-best mark in the NFL.
  • Spencer Rattler is 2-10 ATS as an underdog (15%). Spencer Rattler is 1-12 in his career as a starting QB.
  • The Saints have lost the first quarter in each of their last seven games.
  • The Saints have failed to cover the spread in five of their last seven home games.
  • The Saints are 5-11 ATS as home underdogs (9-20 on the money line as underdogs)
  • As home underdogs, the Saints are 3-13 straight up. Woof.
  • Six of the Saints’ last seven home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Nine of the Saints’ last 13 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Four of the Buccaneers' last five games have gone OVER the total points line (8 of last 12)

Overall:

When there's any doubt in Baker Mayfield - that's when you strike. After a poor showing on MNF that all but nuked his MVP status...it's time to buy the dip.

Mayfield thrives on the road and after a loss. The trends just make it strikingly obvious to bet on the Bucs on Sunday.

  • The Bucs have covered the spread 6 times following a loss. Also, 12-4 ATS after a loss (75%). 10 of the last 11 games covered after a loss.
  • The road team has covered the spread in seven of the Buccaneers' last nine games.
  • The Buccaneers are 16-6 ATS on the road since 2023 (73%) - Second-best mark in the NFL.

And why is the market so infatuated by the Saints? I get home dogs in a divisional matchup. But Spencer Rattler is 2-10 ATS as an underdog (15%). Rattler is also 1-12 in his career as a starting QB. The Saints have ALSO failed to cover the spread in five of their last seven home games. And they placed their starting center on IR this past week.

Take the Bucs.

And bet the over on Mayfield's passing TDs. It's even better when he's on the road (8-3, 72%).

As for the Saints props....5-star bet ALERT. Rashid Shaheed - Under 4.5 receptions. He hasn't surpassed four catches since Week 1. Now he does at least have four catches in every single game this season - but that has caused the line to move. And last year vs TB, he was held to one catch in a game that he was injured in.

Props:

Denver Broncos vs Dallas Cowboys - Sunday, 4:05 PM ET

BettingPros consensus odds:

Erickson's Pick: Cowboys +3.5

Confidence: ★★★★☆

Trends:

  • The Cowboys have won the first half in each of their last four games.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in eight of their last 10 games as home favorites.
  • They have 10 games in a row as home favorites.
  • But ATS Denver has finished just 1-4 ATS as a favorite this season.
  • In six of the Broncos’ last seven games, their opponents have scored first.
  • The Broncos have won each of their last eight home games (10 straight wins as home favorites)
  • Dallas has covered the spread in four straight games as an underdog.
  • Seven of the Broncos' last nine games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Denver is 5-2 toward the under this season.
  • Each of the Cowboys’ last four games has gone OVER the total points line.
  • Seventeen of the Cowboys' last 24 games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

Can anybody stop the Dallas Cowboys offense? The team ranks second in PPG this season, but they find themselves as underdogs on the road to the Broncos.

Obviously, Dallas' defense has been terrible and is the reason why they are catching points in addition to playing a Denver.

But the Broncos have not been good as favorites this season. 1-4 ATS. And that was after posting a perfect record as a favorite last season (8-0). They are not meeting market expectations.

And it's been all fourth-quarter magic from Bo Nix that has them on a 4-game win streak.

Per Next Gen Stats...

In the fourth quarter during this stretch, Nix has thrown four touchdowns while posting a 52.9% dropback success rate and +0.42 EPA per dropback. Over the first three quarters, however, he's managed just two touchdowns and one interception with a 39.3% success rate and -0.12 EPA per dropback. A key difference has been timing as Nix has limited his extended dropbacks, as 369 of his 389 4th-quarter passing yards and all four touchdowns have come on throws made within 4 seconds of the snap.

Meanwhile, Dallas has covered as an underdog in four straight.

The Cowboys generate pressure on 49.3% of dropbacks when blitzing, the 6th-highest mark in the league.

On blitzes, Donovan Ezeiruaku leads the Cowboys with seven pressures on 28 pass rushes. Among edge rushers with at least 25 blitzes, he has generated the 3rd-highest pressure rate (25.0%).

If Dallas can force Nix into some pressure situations and force him into mistakes...

A turnover or two could be the big difference. Nix has been a bottom-12 QB when he's held onto the ball over 2.5 seconds this season. 78.2 passer rating, 6.4 ypa, and 53% completion rate.

Dallas has also been decent versus short/quick passes (average to both average in EPA per attempt faced) - which is Nix's strength. Per NGS, most of Nix's production has come on underneath throws as he is averaging just 3.9 air yards per completion, the 4th-fewest among qualified quarterbacks.

On downfield throws (10+ air yards), Nix has completed only 28 of 71 passes for 593 yards, five touchdowns, and four interceptions. His 69.7 passer rating on such throws ranks 7th-lowest, while his 39.4% completion percentage ranks 6th-lowest among qualified quarterbacks.

Per Next Gen Stats...

The Cowboys have lost seven straight games against the Broncos, dating back to 1998.

The last Cowboys win vs the Broncos was in Week 2, 1995, the most recent season in which the Cowboys won the Super Bowl (won Super Bowl XXX that year). Their last road win at the Broncos was Week 14, 1992, a season they also won the Super Bowl (XXVII).

I was ONE year old the last time Dallas beat the Broncos.

J.K. Dobbins has attempted 16-plus rushes in three out of seven games this season. His average has been 15 carries, including 14 in back-to-back weeks.

And as bad as the Dallas run defense has been, only two RBs have hit their OVER on their closing line attempts.

5-star bet in the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.

Especially if the Broncos run into a negative game script…that could nuke Dobbins' carry total.

In home games vs Tennessee, Cincy, and New York, Dobbins fell short of this number.

Also worth noting (per Next Gen Stats), the Broncos’ rushing attack has not been as good since left guard Ben Powers was placed on IR. The Broncos' running game is now without left guard Ben Powers, who was placed on IR after tearing his bicep in the second half of their Week 5 game against the Eagles.

The Broncos have recorded an 18.0% explosive run rate on designed runs to the left with Powers on the field, compared to just 12.5% without him.

Props:

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans - Sunday, 4:25 PM ET

BettingPros consensus odds:

Erickson's Pick: SGP – Colts -6.5, Over 41.5, and Jonathan Taylor anytime TD (-105).

Confidence: ★★★☆☆

Trends:

  • The Titans have lost each of their last 10 games against AFC opponents.
  • In each of the Titans’ last 11 games, their opponents have been the first to 20 points.
  • Shane Steichen owns the second-best record ATS as a favorite (67%, 11-6).
  • The Colts, as favorites, are 7-4 ATS since the start of 2024.
  • As a home favorite since 2023 - 7-3 ATS (70%) tied for the best mark in the NFL
  • The Colts are 15-2 as favorites straight up since the start of 2023.
  • The Colts have won each of their last 10 games as home favorites.
  • Nine of the Colts’ last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Colts have covered the spread in each of their last five games against the Titans.
  • Seven of the Colts’ last eight games as favorites against the Titans have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

All roads lead to the Colts. The Titans continue to be terrible, and their dead-cat bounce lasted about one quarter versus New England.

On the road against the Colts (who tend to dominate as favorites) without several key players such as Calvin Ridley, L'Jarius Sneed, and Jeffery Simmons...yeah, this is a tough picture to paint for the underdogs.

I will say in the Titans' defense that the Colts’ ACTUAL defense is not particularly great.

Their secondary has been pretty poor all season, and their DL got banged up last week with injuries to Samson Ebukam and Tyquan Lewis.

The Colts' weakness is versus the deep ball (28th), and that's about the only thing the Titans have done this year above average - ranking 12th in deep passing EPA. Cam Ward might just chuck it.

We should see points (even if it's all Colts).

SGP this bad boy: Colts -6.5, Over 41.5, and JT anytime TD (-105).

With a negative game script...we should see Ward throwing a ton. In fact, the Titans posted a positive PROE in Week 7 (+4%) after it was -2% with Brian Callahan.

Ward has over 20.5 completions in 4 out of 5 games, and the last 5 QBs the Colts have faced have gone over their completions prop (22-plus).

Props:

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