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NFL Betting Primer, Picks & Predictions: Week 9

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Welcome back to yet another edition of Andrew Erickson’s NFL Betting Primer powered by BettingPros. Earlier than usual because I have another wedding to attend this weekend. Congrats to my cousin Alex and his partner Sean!

My Week 8 betting card finished an abysmal 5-11 (2-7 on sides/totals and 5-2 on player props), with Sunday night going 1-0 and Monday night without a play. Season record: 53-42 overall for 56%.

The Commanders -5.5 on Sunday night was the lone game-level winner outside my Polymarket Prediction of the Week of Broncos ML.

The Browns +3.5 (Pittsburgh won by 21) and Under 40.5 in Chiefs-Broncos (Denver won 28-24, and the game finished with 52 points), the Over 45.5 and Lions team total Over 24.5 in Vikings-Lions (Detroit won 19-15 and the game finished with 34), the Over 54.5 in Ravens-Bills (46 points), the Over 43.5 in Patriots-Dolphins (43 points, one short) and the Falcons moneyline (a 16-0 loss at Tampa Bay) all missed.

But on the player props, we cleaned house. 5-0 from the player props I gave out on the Week 8 Props Show: DK Metcalf’s Under 4.5 receptions (1), Jonathan Taylor’s Under 15.5 rushing attempts (8), Antonio Williams’ Over 34.5 receiving yards (54), Garrett Wilson’s Over 62.5 receiving yards (83) cashed (4-3), and Chase Brown’s Over 54.5 rushing yards (55). Wish I had just stuck with those picks and didn’t add any more on last week’s full primer.

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NFL Betting Primer, Picks & Predictions: Week 9

Four things stand out in the league-wide trends heading into Week 9. First, the prime-time underdog run has stalled. Underdogs covered 10 straight prime-time games earlier in the season, but they are 1-5 ATS over the last six (0-3 in Week 7 and 1-2 in Week 8, with the Bears’ 34-17 win at Seattle on Monday night the lone cover). Prime-time underdogs are still 15-9-1 ATS for the season, and favorites are 9-15-1, and Thursday-night underdogs are 5-3 ATS (eight games, including the Melbourne opener). The prime-time games this week are Jaguars-Ravens on Thursday (Jacksonville is a double-digit road favorite, in its own primer), Buccaneers-Bears on Sunday night (Chicago -4.5) and Bills-Vikings on Monday night (Buffalo -3.5). Prime-time home underdogs are 6-1 ATS this season, with all six covers coming as outright wins, and both Baltimore and Minnesota would be in that role.

Second, low totals keep leaning Under and high totals keep leaning Over. Totals of 42 or lower are 12-20 toward the Under for the season (62.5%, 32 games) after going 2-2 in Week 8 (Browns-Steelers and Eagles-Commanders stayed Under; Patriots-Dolphins and Chiefs-Broncos went Over). Totals of 50 or more are 11-7 Over, and totals of 52 or more are 7-3 Over. Four Week 9 games sit at 42 or lower on the listed numbers (Jaguars-Ravens 39.5, Giants-Eagles 38.5, Texans-Chargers 40.5 and Cardinals-Seahawks 39.5) and four sit at 50 or higher (Bengals-Falcons 52.5, Cowboys-Colts 51.5, Lions-Dolphins 50.5 and Raiders-49ers 52.5), so watch the closing numbers. Scoring ticked up in Week 8 to 46.6 combined points per game against an average closing total of 45.5, which leaves the season at 46.1 against 45.2.

Third, the divisional underdog edge cooled off in Week 8, but it is still the clearest underdog edge on the board. Divisional underdogs went 1-6 ATS last week (Miami was the only cover, and none of the seven won outright) and are 24-16 ATS for the season (60%, 40 games, 17 outright wins), while non-divisional underdogs are 35-41-5 ATS (81 games). Home underdogs went 1-0 in Week 8 and are 20-21-2 ATS for the season (48.8% of decided bets), with 15 outright wins in 43 games (35%) and the Over at 24-19. The non-divisional home underdogs are 12-15-2 ATS and 18-11 toward the Over, in games that averaged 50.1 points against an average closing total of 44.6. Week 9 has two divisional games, Giants-Eagles and Cardinals-Seahawks. On the listed numbers, there are eight home underdogs (the Ravens, Colts, Commanders, Dolphins, Eagles, Panthers, Chargers, and Vikings), and seven of them are in non-divisional games.

Fourth, rest and schedule have mattered more than the market has priced. Teams with at least three more days of rest than their opponent are 18-7-1 ATS and 22-4 straight up in 2026, and the favorites in that spot are 15-3-1 ATS (19-0 straight up). The Saints (14 days vs. 7 for the Browns), Giants (14 vs. 7 for the Eagles), Texans (14 vs. 7 for the Chargers), and 49ers (14 vs. 7 for the Raiders) are favorites coming off byes with the edge. The Panthers (10 vs. 7 for the Broncos) and Packers (10 vs. 7 for the Patriots) are underdogs with the edge after playing last Thursday, a group that is 3-4 ATS. The flip side: underdogs facing an opponent with at least three extra days of rest are 3-15-1 ATS and 0-19 straight up, which is where the Browns, Eagles, Chargers and Raiders sit this week. Teams coming off a bye are 7-3 ATS in 2026, and teams coming off a loss of 20 or more points are 12-5-1 ATS (18 games), including the Colts, Browns, and Ravens this week.

A reminder that Pittsburgh and Tennessee are on bye, so we have 15 games this week. Jaguars-Ravens on Thursday night has its own stand-alone primer, and Bengals-Falcons kicks off at 9:30 AM ET in Madrid.

For my thoughts on all the games on the Week 9 slate, be sure to check out the weekly lookahead lines show I do every week with Ryan Wormley (Monday release following every Sunday slate) on the BettingPros YouTube channel:

League-Wide Trends

Week 8 Recap

  • Favorites went 9-5 ATS; underdogs went 5-9 ATS (14 games). Underdogs won 3 of the 14 outright (the Cardinals, Raiders and Bears).
  • Home teams went 10-4 ATS; road teams went 4-10 ATS (no neutral-site games). That is a reversal from Week 7, when home teams went 3-10.
  • Home underdogs went 1-0 ATS (the Dolphins covered against New England). Road underdogs went 4-9.
  • Overall O/U: 7-7. Totals of 42 or lower went 2-2, totals above 42 went 5-5, and totals of 50 or more went 1-1 (Cardinals-Cowboys Over, Ravens-Bills Under).
  • Favorites of 7 or more went 1-3 ATS (the Jaguars covered at -10.5; the Bengals at -13.5, Cowboys at -7, and Patriots at -7 did not). Divisional underdogs went 1-6 ATS and 0-7 straight up.

Full Season 2026 (through Week 8)

  • Favorites went 57-59-5 ATS; underdogs went 59-57-5 ATS (121 games). Underdogs have won 41 of 121 games outright (34%; one game was a tie).
  • Home teams went 54-57-4 ATS; road teams went 57-54-4 ATS (6 neutral-site games excluded).
  • Overall O/U: 62-59.
  • Closing totals of 42 or less are 12-20 toward the Under (62.5%, 32 games), including 2-2 in Week 8; closing totals above 42 are 50-39 Over (89 games), including 5-5 in Week 8.
  • Closing totals of 50 or more are 11-7 Over (18 games), and went 1-1 in Week 8.

Home Underdogs (through Week 8)

  • Home underdogs are 20-21-2 ATS (43 games; neutral-site games excluded), which is 48.8% of decided bets.
  • Home underdogs have won 15 of those 43 games outright (35%), and the O/U is 24-19 toward the Over.
  • Divisional home underdogs are 8-6 ATS (6-8 straight up); non-divisional home underdogs are 12-15-2 ATS (29 games, 9 outright wins) and 18-11 toward the Over.

Prime-Time Highlight (Wed Opener/TNF/SNF/MNF, through Week 8)

  • Favorites went 9-15-1 ATS; underdogs went 15-9-1 ATS (25 games). Underdogs have won 13 of the 25 outright.
  • Home teams went 14-9-1 ATS; road teams went 9-14-1 ATS (1 neutral-site game excluded).
  • Overall O/U: 12-13.
  • Streaks: prime-time underdogs covered 10 straight games earlier in the season, then are 1-5 over the last six (0-3 in Week 7; Panthers and Eagles did not cover in Week 8, and the Bears did on Monday night).
  • Prime-time home underdogs are 6-1 ATS (all 6 covers were outright wins).
  • By slot: Thursday-night underdogs are 5-3 ATS (including the Melbourne opener), Sunday-night underdogs 5-3 and Monday-night underdogs 5-3; the O/U is 4-4 in each slot. The Wednesday opener (Patriots-Seahawks) was a push on the spread and stayed Under.
  • Prime-time games with totals of 48 or higher are 4-4 Over (8 games), and prime-time games with totals of 45 or lower are 4-6 toward the Over (10 games).

Totals by Range (through Week 8)

  • Closing totals of 40 or lower: 5-8 Over (13 games; the average closing total was 38.8 and the average game finished with 37.4 points).
  • Closing totals of 40.5 to 42: 7-12 Over (19 games; 41.1 average total, 39.1 average points). Combined, totals of 42 or lower are 12-20 (62.5% Under, 32 games; 40.2 average total, 38.4 average points).
  • Closing totals of 42.5 to 45: 17-15 Over (32 games; 43.5 average total, 44.1 average points). Underdogs are 17-12-3 ATS in this range and favorites 12-17-3.
  • Closing totals of 45.5 to 47.5: 16-12 Over (28 games; 46.5 average total, 51.7 average points).
  • Closing totals of 48 to 49.5: 6-5 Over (11 games; 48.7 average total, 48.7 average points). Totals of 48 or higher are 17-12 Over (29 games).
  • Closing totals of 50 to 51.5: 4-4 Over (8 games; 51.0 average total, 47.8 average points). Totals of 52 or higher are 7-3 Over (10 games; 54.0 average total, 57.3 average points), which is what drives the 11-7 Over mark for totals of 50 or more.
  • Scoring by week (average combined points / average closing total): Week 1 49.4 / 45.2, Week 2 40.4 / 45.5, Week 3 47.2 / 45.0, Week 4 47.8 / 45.1, Week 5 48.4 / 44.5, Week 6 43.6 / 45.6, Week 7 45.1 / 44.9, Week 8 46.6 / 45.5. The season average is 46.1 points per game against an average closing total of 45.2, and the Over is 62-59 (week-by-week O/U: 8-8, 6-10, 8-8, 9-7, 8-7, 7-7, 9-5, 7-7).

Divisional Games (through Week 8)

  • Divisional underdogs are 24-16 ATS (60%, 40 games) and 17-22-1 straight up; divisional favorites are 16-24 ATS. In non-divisional games, underdogs are 35-41-5 ATS (81 games) and 24-57 straight up.
  • Home divisional underdogs are 8-6 ATS and 6-8 straight up (14 games), and those games are 6-8 toward the Over (43.1 average points against a 43.1 average total).
  • Road divisional underdogs are 14-10 ATS and 9-14-1 straight up (24 games), and those games are 14-10 toward the Over (45.1 average points against a 45.2 average total).
  • Divisional home teams are 18-20 ATS and road teams 20-18 ATS. Divisional games overall are 21-19 Over (44.6 average points against a 44.5 average total).
  • Non-divisional underdogs are 12-15-2 ATS at home (29 games) and 22-24-2 ATS on the road (48 games).

Spread Size and Roles (through Week 8)

  • Games with a spread of 3 or fewer (50 games): underdogs are 20-27-3 ATS and 20-30 straight up.
  • Spreads of 3.5 to 6.5 (42 games): underdogs are 20-22 ATS and 12-29-1 straight up.
  • Spreads of 7 to 9.5 (21 games): underdogs are 14-5-2 ATS and 7-14 straight up. Spreads of 10 or more (8 games): underdogs are 5-3 ATS and 2-6 straight up. All spreads of 7 or more combined: underdogs are 19-8-2 ATS (70% of decided bets) and 9-20 straight up.
  • By role: home favorites are 34-36-2 ATS and road favorites 21-20-2; home underdogs are 20-21-2 ATS and road underdogs 36-34-2 (72 games).

Rest and Schedule Spots (through Week 8)

  • Teams with at least three more days of rest than their opponent are 18-7-1 ATS and 22-4 straight up (26 games). Favorites in that spot are 15-3-1 ATS and 19-0 straight up; underdogs with the rest edge are 3-4 ATS and 3-4 straight up.
  • Underdogs facing an opponent with at least three more days of rest are 3-15-1 ATS and 0-19 straight up.
  • Teams coming off their bye are 7-3 ATS (10 games).
  • Teams coming off a loss of 20 or more points are 12-5-1 ATS (18 games). Baltimore and Carolina were the Week 8 examples, and neither covered.

Margins and Key Numbers (through Week 8)

  • Of 121 games, 27 (22%) were decided by 3 points or fewer, 65 (54%) by 7 or fewer, 38 (31%) by 14 or more, and 19 (16%) by 21 or more. Twenty games ended on a margin of exactly 3 and 12 on exactly 7.
  • Games with a spread of exactly 3 (22 games): underdogs are 7-12-3 ATS and 7-15 straight up. At 3.5 (22 games) underdogs are 11-11 ATS; at 2.5 (17 games) underdogs are 9-8 ATS and every one of those covers was an outright win.
  • Games with a spread of exactly 7 (10 games): underdogs are 6-2-2 ATS; at 7.5 (5 games) underdogs are 3-2 ATS without winning outright.

How This Maps to Week 9

  • Spreads of 7 or more on the listed numbers: Jaguars -10 at Baltimore, Chiefs -10 vs. the Jets, 49ers -10 vs. the Raiders, and Seahawks -8.5 vs. the Cardinals, which would be three double-digit favorites.
  • Divisional games: Giants-Eagles and Cardinals-Seahawks.
  • Home underdogs on the listed numbers: Ravens, Colts, Commanders, Dolphins, Eagles, Panthers, Chargers and Vikings.
  • Totals of 42 or lower: Jaguars-Ravens, Giants-Eagles, Texans-Chargers and Cardinals-Seahawks. Totals of 50 or higher: Bengals-Falcons, Cowboys-Colts, Lions-Dolphins and Raiders-49ers.
  • Rest edges: favorites with the edge are the Saints, Giants, Texans and 49ers; underdogs with the edge are the Panthers and Packers.
  • Neutral site: Bengals-Falcons in Madrid. Favorites in 2026 neutral-site games are 2-3-1 ATS (6 games), and the O/U is 2-4.

Week 9 Official Plays

Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons (Madrid, Spain)

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Falcons +3

Trends

  • As a favorite in a neutral-site game (the role it plays here), CIN is 2-3-1 ATS (40%) and 5-1 O/U in 2026 (n=6, through Week 8). Overall: across all games as a favorite, 2-3-1 ATS and 5-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-3-1 ATS and 5-2 O/U. Neutral-site games are excluded from home/road splits.
  • As an underdog in a neutral-site game (the role it plays here), ATL is 3-4 ATS (43%) and 3-4 O/U in 2026 (n=7, through Week 8). Overall: across all games as an underdog, 3-4 ATS and 3-4 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-5 ATS and 4-4 O/U. Neutral-site games are excluded from home/road splits.
  • CIN streaks through Week 8: 5-2 straight up (3-game win streak), 3-3-1 against the spread (1-game non-cover streak), 5-2 toward the total (3-game Over streak and four of the last 5 games have gone over).
  • ATL streaks through Week 8: 3-5 straight up (1-game losing streak), 3-5 against the spread (1-game non-cover streak), 4-4 toward the total (2-game Under streak).
  • CIN comes in off a 43-36 home win over TEN as a -13.5-point favorite, failing to cover (Week 8). ATL comes in off a 0-16 road loss at TB as a -2.5-point underdog and fails to cover (Week 8).
  • Days between games: CIN has 7, and ATL has 7.
  • Games with closing totals of 50 or more are 11-7 toward the Over in 2026 (18 games, through Week 8), averaging 53.1 combined points against an average closing total of 52.6.
  • Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game vs. average closing total): CIN 52.0 vs. 46.9 (5-2 O/U); ATL 45.0 vs. 45.7 (4-4 O/U).
  • CIN is 2-3-1 ATS and 4-2 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 2 through Week 8); ATL is 3-3 ATS and 4-2 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 3 through Week 8).
  • International games: favorites are 51-18 straight up, and 42-26-1 ATS (61%) with a 31-38 O/U (45% Over) in NFL international games per the Covers.com base logged in the trends database (rolled through the Week 7 Paris game). In 2026’s six neutral-site games (Melbourne, Brazil, London three times, and Paris), favorites are 2-3-1 ATS and the O/U is 2-4.

Injuries

Betting Preview

Can Cincinnati really be trusted to cover as a favorite when its defense just allowed 36 points to the Titans? And how much should we penalize Atlanta for a shutout in terrible weather? The Tampa Bay game was played in torrential rain and wind. Baker Mayfield completed zero passes, and the Buccaneers rushed for 324 yards. Meanwhile, the Bengals’ defense just allowed a career game to Cam Ward without his No. 1 WR. Ward’s 53.2% success rate was his highest in a full game in his young career, while his 0.07 EPA per dropback was his third-highest ever. Cincy’s defense allowed 36 points to Tennessee, and the Bengals needed overtime to escape 43-36 (needed six Joe Burrow TDs to win as 12.5-point favorites).

The Falcons are 9-3-1 ATS as an underdog since 2025. Penix specifically is 6-2 ATS as a road underdog since 2025.

Both teams traveled earlier in the week to adjust to the new time zone.

But you know who doesn’t need extra time to acclimate? Kyle Pitts. The Falcons TE has a juicy matchup on deck versus one of the worst defenses in the NFL against tight ends. Per Next Gen Stats: The Bengals’ defense has allowed no fewer than 14.6 fantasy points to tight ends who have seen more than five targets against them this season, surrendering at least five catches and 75 yards to each. Cincinnati has given up the second-most receptions per game (7) and receiving yards per game (88.7) to TEs this season despite not facing any tight end currently in the top-12 in fantasy points per game. They have also allowed the second-highest yards per target (9.3) and the highest explosive play rate (22.4%) to the position. Kyle Pitts has seen at least five targets in each of his last four games, scoring over 13 points in three.

Pitts has one of the highest-rated 1st TD bets this week in NFL First TD Scorer Pro Tool. He’s top-5 in RZ targets among TEs this season.

Props

Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Over 48.5

Trends

  • As a road favorite (its role here), the Rams are 2-1 ATS (67%) and 3-0 O/U in 2026 (n=3, through Week 8). Overall: across all road games, 2-1 ATS and 3-0 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 4-4 ATS and 4-4 O/U; across all 2026 games, 4-4 ATS and 4-4 O/U. The Rams are 10-4 ATS as a road favorite since 2024.
  • As a home underdog (the role it plays here), WAS is 1-0 ATS (100%) and 1-0 O/U in 2026 (n=1, through Week 8). Overall: across all home games, 2-1 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 3-2 ATS and 3-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 4-3 ATS and 4-3 O/U.
  • LAR streaks through Week 8: 4-4 straight up (2-game win streak), 4-4 against the spread (2-game cover streak), 4-4 toward the total (1-game Under streak). 10 of the last 11 Rams road games have gone OVER the total.
  • WAS streaks through Week 8: 2-4-1 straight up (1-game win streak), 4-3 against the spread (2-game cover streak), 4-3 toward the total (2-game Under streak).
  • LAR comes in off a 24-9 home win over LAC as a -6.5-point favorite, covering (Week 8). WAS comes in off a 27-10 home win over PHI as a -5.5-point favorite, covering (Week 8; SNF).
  • Days between games: LAR has 7, and WAS has 7.
  • Home underdogs are 20-21-2 ATS in 2026 (43 games, through Week 8, neutral sites excluded). WAS is a home underdog in this game.
  • Games with closing totals from 45.5 to 49.5 are 22-17 toward the Over in 2026 (39 games, through Week 8), averaging 50.9 combined points against an average closing total of 47.1.
  • Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game vs. average closing total): LAR 45.2 vs. 47.9 (4-4 O/U); WAS 48.7 vs. 45.1 (4-3 O/U).
  • LAR is 3-3 ATS and 4-2 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 3 through Week 8); WAS is 3-3 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 2 through Week 8).

Injuries

Betting Preview

I think the total is a little high, but neither of these defenses inspires me with confidence. And that’s why it’s an over play for me. The trends for the Rams’ road games (12-2 O/U) and the Commanders’ home games (7-0 toward the over as a home underdog) signal that this is the correct play here (changing my stance from earlier this week

I also like for Rams RB Blake Corum to be effective running the ball.  Over the last three weeks, Corum has 40 touches, 234 total yards, and 3 total touchdowns. In any game with at least 10 carries, Corum has hit this OVER on this number (His Week 9 attempts prop is listed at 11.5). The Commanders D-line is banged up - no Da'Ron Payne, and Javon Kinlaw is still out. The Rams put Jaylen Watson on IR, and CB Trent McDuffie is still dealing with a back injury.

Props

Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Props

Trends

  • As a road favorite (the role it plays here), DEN is 2-0 ATS (100%) and 1-1 O/U in 2026 (n=2, through Week 8). Overall: across all road games, 2-2 ATS and 1-3 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 4-0 ATS and 2-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 6-2 ATS and 3-5 O/U.
  • As a home underdog (the role it plays here), CAR is 1-1 ATS (50%) and 2-0 O/U in 2026 (n=2, through Week 8). Overall: across all home games, 1-2 ATS and 3-0 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 1-2 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-4 ATS and 3-4 O/U. 4-game streak of home overs.
  • DEN streaks through Week 8: 6-2 straight up (4-game win streak), 6-2 against the spread (4-game cover streak), 3-5 toward the total (2-game Over streak).
  • CAR streaks through Week 8: 3-4 straight up (2-game losing streak), 3-4 against the spread (2-game non-cover streak), 3-4 toward the total (1-game Under streak).
  • DEN comes in off a 28-24 home win over KC as a -1.5-point favorite, covering (Week 8). CAR comes in off a 19-27 road loss at GB as a -3.5-point underdog and fails to cover (Week 8; TNF).
  • Days between games: DEN has 7, and CAR has 10.
  • CAR has 3 more days of rest than DEN. Teams with at least 3 more days of rest than their opponent are 18-7-1 ATS and 22-4 straight up in 2026 (26 games, through Week 8). Favorites in that spot are 15-3-1 ATS and 19-0 straight up; underdogs are 3-4 ATS and 3-4 straight up. CAR is the underdog with the rest edge.
  • Home underdogs are 20-21-2 ATS in 2026 (43 games, through Week 8, neutral sites excluded). CAR is a home underdog in this game.
  • Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game against the average closing total): DEN 42.1 against 43.6 (3-5 O/U); CAR 53.0 against 45.4 (3-4 O/U).
  • DEN is 5-1 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 3 through Week 8); CAR is 3-3 ATS and 2-4 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 2 through Week 8).

Injuries

Betting Preview

To me, this feels like a come-back-to-earth trap spot for Denver after another big win over a division rival, and I like Carolina at home. A West Coast team traveling east for the early window is the kind of spot I want to be on the other side of. Typically, I want to be on the Panthers after a loss, which didn’t work last week in Week 8.

My other favorite angle here is the Under. The Broncos’ offense still isn’t fixed; Bryce Young hasn’t performed well against tougher defenses.

Carolina’s defense is a mess too after the defensive coordinator firing, but Bo Nix has not been able to take advantage of these matchups.

That said, I prefer the props most.

Tetaiora McMillan UNDER 5.5 receptions. He’s been under in 5 of 7 games this season with Jalen Coker in the lineup.

In his two overs when Coker played, he caught exactly six passes.

Bryce Young will be under pressure a lot in this game as well. He has been pressured on 50.0% of his dropbacks in the last two weeks, the fourth-highest rate in the league in that span. The Broncos’ defense sports the league’s fourth-highest pressure rate at 40.3% and its second-highest quick-pressure rate at 21.7% (Next Gen Stats).

Pat Surtain II aligned as the boundary corner on 54 of his 67 defensive snaps (80.6%), the second-highest mark this season behind a Week 1 matchup also against the Chiefs.

When aligned to the boundary, Surtain has been targeted on only 9.4% of coverage snaps, a career-low mark and third-lowest among all cornerbacks (min. 50 coverage snaps). Surtain has also held opposing receivers to 4.5 yards per target, the eighth-lowest among all corners (min. 10 targets).

T-Mac is still closer to a 25/75 ratioed slot/out-wide WR.

This prop bet came to me courtesy of the Sharp Money report tool on BettingPros. Highly recommend checking it out.

Props

Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Over 50

Trends

  • As a road favorite (the role it plays here), DET is 1-1 ATS (50%) and 2-0 O/U in 2026 (n=2, through Week 8). Overall: across all road games, 1-2 ATS and 3-0 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 3-3 ATS and 4-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-4 ATS and 5-2 O/U.
  • As a home underdog (the role it plays here), MIA is 1-1-1 ATS (50%) and 2-1 O/U in 2026 (n=3, through Week 8). Overall: across all home games, 1-1-1 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 3-3-1 ATS and 4-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-3-1 ATS and 4-3 O/U.
  • DET streaks through Week 8: 5-2 straight up (3-game win streak), 3-4 against the spread (1-game cover streak), 5-2 toward the total (2-game Under streak). 6 of the last 7 Lions' road games as favorites have gone OVER (3-0 overall on the road toward the total).
  • MIA streaks through Week 8: 1-6 straight up (1-game losing streak), 3-3-1 against the spread (3-game cover streak), 4-3 toward the total (3-game Over streak).
  • DET comes in off a 19-15 home win over MIN as a -3.5-point favorite, covering (Week 8). MIA comes in off a 19-24 home loss to NE as a -7-point underdog, covering (Week 8).
  • Days between games: DET has 7, and MIA has 7.
  • Home underdogs are 20-21-2 ATS in 2026 (43 games, through Week 8, neutral sites excluded). MIA is a home underdog in this game.
  • Games with closing totals of 50 or more are 11-7 toward the Over in 2026 (18 games, through Week 8), averaging 53.1 combined points against an average closing total of 52.6.
  • Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game vs. average closing total): DET 54.7 vs. 51.3 (5-2 O/U); MIA 42.6 vs. 42.3 (4-3 O/U).
  • DET is 3-3 ATS and 4-2 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 2 through Week 8); MIA is 3-2-1 ATS and 4-2 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 2 through Week 8).

Injuries

Betting Preview

I like the Over. Both defenses are bad; the Lions’ injuries on that side keep piling up, and Miami has played better offensively with Malik Willis over the last three games, so I expect to see a high-scoring affair.

Trends/nuggests that push me further toward the total:

  • Detroit is 5-2 O/U and averages 54.7 combined points.
  • 6 of the last 7 Lions road games as favorites have gone OVER (3-0 overall on the road toward the total).
  • Lions are 3-1 toward the OVER in the last 4 games following a Vikings matchup
  • Miami is on a 3-game Over streak (nearly 24 PPG). 2-1 toward the OVER at home (where they’ve scored at least 7 points).
  • Miami's defense has allowed at least 300 yards in all 3 home games (and its offense has also averaged more than 300 yards per game).
  • Miami is 3-1 toward the total (by 0.5 points) when No.1 WR Caleb Douglas has played.
  • Totals of 50 this season or more are 11-7 Over.
  • When DET has faced current Dolphins HC and former Packers DC, Jeff Hafley, their games have averaged 49.5 PPG.  Last 4 matchups vs. DET: 38 points, 65 points, 55 points, 40 points (the Lions’ home games scored 55-plus).

Caleb Douglas has gone over 40 yards in 3 of his 4 games this season (43-plus yards). The Lions allow 96 yards per game to opposing No. 1 WRs. DET allows 299 receiving yards per game, the most in the NFL. Douglas is averaging 2.2 yards per route run this season, ranking 25th among wide receivers with at least 100 routes run. He is one of just three receivers this season (Ladd McConkey and Jaylin Noel) to average over 2.0 yards per route while recording a target rate of 20.0% or below. The rookie WR is also averaging 8.8 yards after the catch per reception, the highest on the team (minimum 5 receptions), and has forced five missed tackles on receptions, second on the team despite logging 18 fewer receptions than team leader Malik Washington (7 missed tackles forced). Last week, Douglas caught 4 of 6 official targets for 43 yards (team-high 8 true targets, 22.9% adjusted, up from 13.6%) and played 56 of 65 snaps (86%, +18 points). He also led the team in routes run.

Trust the process. When TEs face the Lions, you bet their TD props. It has literally been the only way I’ve hit any of my anytime TD bets on the props show this year. Rinse and repeat.

    Props

    Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints

    Betting Lines & Odds

    Erickson’s Pick: Saints -3

    Trends

    • As a road underdog (the role it plays here), CLE is 1-3 ATS (25%) and 2-2 O/U in 2026 (n=4, through Week 8). Overall: across all road games, 2-3 ATS and 3-2 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 4-3 ATS and 3-4 O/U; across all 2026 games, 5-3 ATS and 4-4 O/U.
    • As a home favorite (the role it plays here), NO is 0-2 ATS (0%) and 2-0 O/U in 2026 (n=2, through Week 8). Overall: across all home games, 0-3 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 1-2 ATS and 3-0 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-4 ATS and 4-3 O/U.
    • CLE streaks through Week 8: 5-3 straight up (1-game losing streak), 5-3 against the spread (1-game non-cover streak), 4-4 toward the total (1-game Under streak).
    • NO streaks through Week 8: 2-5 straight up (1-game losing streak), 3-4 against the spread (1-game non-cover streak), 4-3 toward the total (1-game Under streak). 11 of the Saints’ last 14 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
    • CLE comes in off a 6-27 road loss at PIT as a -3.5-point underdog and failed to cover (Week 8). NO comes in off a 10-16 road loss at PIT as a -3-point underdog, failing to cover (Week 7; Week 8 bye).
    • Days between games: CLE has 7, and NO has 14.
    • NO has 7 more days of rest than CLE. Teams with at least 3 more days of rest than their opponent are 18-7-1 ATS and 22-4 straight up in 2026 (26 games, through Week 8). Favorites in that spot are 15-3-1 ATS and 19-0 straight up; underdogs in that spot are 3-4 ATS and 3-4 straight up. NO is the favorite with the rest edge. Underdogs with at least 3 fewer days of rest than their opponent are 3-15-1 ATS and 0-19 straight up in 2026; CLE is an underdog with a rest deficit in this game.
    • NO is coming off its Week 8 bye. Teams playing after a bye are 7-3 ATS in 2026 (10 games, through Week 8).
    • Games with closing totals from 42.5 to 45 are 17-15 toward the Over in 2026 (32 games, through Week 8), averaging 44.1 combined points against an average closing total of 43.5.
    • Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game against the average closing total): CLE 39.0 against 39.5 (4-4 O/U); NO 50.9 against 45.4 (4-3 O/U).
    • CLE is 4-2 ATS and 2-4 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 3 through Week 8); NO is 2-4 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 2 through Week 7).

    Injuries

    Betting Preview

    I like the Saints laying the points at home. New Orleans is coming off its bye, and Cleveland is playing a second straight road game, and a lot of teams have played well coming off their byes (both SU and ATS). Deshaun Watson has taken a lot of sacks (Shedeur Sanders will ALSO take a lot of sacks), and the Browns’ offense feels capped, while the Saints should be a little healthier with the potential returns of Jordyn Tyson and Kelvin Banks. It is telling that a 2-5 team is favored over a 5-3 team, but the Browns are not as good as their record (especially when they play on the road).

    I was wrong on the Browns last week. The international-fade angle did not come through for Cleveland at Pittsburgh, but rest has mattered in a lot of games this season, and it does here.

    I also think that Kellen Moore might have an edge versus Sanders…given the Saints did a lot of research on him before last year’s draft (obviously went with Tyler Shough instead).

    As a side note…sprinkle some OROY action on Tyson. I don’t think any rookie has run away with this award to start the season. If Tyson blows up and helps the Saints make a push to the NFC South title, he could still win if his per-game numbers are excellent. 40-1. Those odds will shift quickly if he plays well in Week 9.

    Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts

    Betting Lines & Odds

    Erickson’s Pick: Props

    Trends

    • As a road favorite (the role it plays here), DAL is 1-1 ATS (50%) and 1-1 O/U in 2026 (n=2, through Week 8). Overall: across all road games, 2-2 ATS and 2-2 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 2-3 ATS and 3-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-4-1 ATS and 5-3 O/U.
    • As a home underdog (its role here), IND is 1-1 ATS (50%) and 1-1 O/U in 2026 (n=2, through Week 8). Overall: across all home games, 1-2 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 3-3 ATS and 4-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 4-4 ATS and 5-3 O/U. The Colts have failed to cover the spread in 5 of their last 6 home games.
    • DAL streaks through Week 8: 3-5 straight up (1-game losing streak), 3-4-1 against the spread (1-game non-cover streak), 5-3 toward the total (2-game Over streak).
    • IND streaks through Week 8: 2-6 straight up (4-game losing streak), 4-4 against the spread (1-game non-cover streak), 5-3 toward the total (1-game Over streak).
    • DAL comes in off a 30-33 home loss to ARI as a -7-point favorite and failed to cover (Week 8). IND comes in off a 7-42 road loss at JAX as a -10.5-point underdog and fails to cover (Week 8).
    • Days between games: DAL has 7, and IND has 7.
    • Home underdogs are 20-21-2 ATS in 2026 (43 games, through Week 8, neutral sites excluded). IND is a home underdog in this game.
    • Games with closing totals of 50 or more are 11-7 toward the Over in 2026 (18 games, through Week 8), averaging 53.1 combined points against an average closing total of 52.6.
    • Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game vs. average closing total): DAL 54.0 vs. 49.9 (5-3 O/U); IND 47.9 vs. 44.8 (5-3 O/U).
    • DAL is 2-3-1 ATS and 4-2 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 3 through Week 8); IND is 3-3 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 3 through Week 8).

    Injuries

    Betting Preview

    This is a plug-your-nose game for me. The Cowboys are frustrating; they lose games they should win in the fourth quarter, and I do not trust them, but I cannot make a case for betting on the Colts in full “fire-sale” mode. They traded away players last week and will probably move more this week, and I expect the market to lean toward Dallas if that continues.

    Therefore, it’s a props game for me. When Jerry Jones says George Pickens needs more targets, we are betting on his receiving-yard overs.

    He hasn’t hit 62.5 yards in 2 consecutive weeks, and his snaps have fallen (he’s been a bit banged up), which OC Klayton Adams admitted in a press conference this week.

    After playing 60.0% of Dallas’ offensive snaps in Week 7, Pickens has been outsnapped by Ryan Flournoy in consecutive games, with Flournoy playing at least 75.0% of snaps in each of the first six games of the season (Next Gen Stats).

    He did hit the over last week, but the yardage gain was erased by a holding penalty.

    Before the last 2 games...Pickens had gone over 62.5 receiving yards in four straight games.

    And S/O to the @coachspeakindex Discord (well worth the sub) for quotes from HC Brian Schottenheimer about Pickens’ usage in Week 9.

    “George is the guy that we're focused on, knowing we've gotta get him going more and better. And that starts with me, as the playcaller. [When asked about moving him to the slot] But it's certainly something that we'd like to get done earlier in games, get him off to a good start.”

    The Colts have been a slot funnel (better boundary CBs), so any slot bump for Pickens would be ideal for his yardage totals. Colts slot CB Justin Walley is injured, so Indy has been using a bunch of backups in the slot.

    The team is ‘hopeful’ he plays, just as an FYI.

    Props

    New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs

    Betting Lines & Odds

    Erickson’s Pick: Under 47.5

    Trends

    • As a road underdog (the role it plays here), NYJ is 1-2 ATS (33%) and 2-1 O/U in 2026 (n=3, through Week 8). Overall: across all road games, 1-2 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 3-2 ATS and 2-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 4-4 ATS and 4-4 O/U. Jets have failed to cover the spread in 9 of their last 10 games as underdogs.
    • As a home favorite (the role it plays here), KC is 2-1 ATS (67%) and 1-2 O/U in 2026 (n=3, through Week 8). Overall: across all home games, 2-1 ATS and 1-2 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 3-2 ATS and 2-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-4 ATS and 3-4 O/U.
    • NYJ streaks through Week 8: 2-6 straight up (3-game losing streak), 4-4 against the spread (2-game non-cover streak), 4-4 toward the total (3-game Over streak).
    • KC streaks through Week 8: 5-2 straight up (2-game losing streak), 3-4 against the spread (2-game non-cover streak), 3-4 toward the total (1-game Over streak). 9 of the last 10 Chiefs’ home games have gone UNDER the total.
    • NYJ comes in off a 33-38 home loss to LV as a -1.5-point favorite, failing to cover (Week 8). KC comes in off a 24-28 road loss at DEN as a -1.5-point underdog, failing to cover (Week 8).
    • Days between games: NYJ has 7, and KC has 7.
    • Favorites laying 7 or more points are 8-19-2 ATS in 2026 (29 games; 20 won outright, through Week 8). Home favorites of 7 or more are 6-16-1 ATS (23 games) and road favorites of 7 or more are 2-3-1 ATS (6 games). KC is laying 9.5-10 in this game.
    • Games with closing totals from 45.5 to 49.5 are 22-17 toward the Over in 2026 (39 games, through Week 8), averaging 50.9 combined points against an average closing total of 47.1.
    • Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game against the average closing total): NYJ 44.8 against 42.9 (4-4 O/U); KC 42.6 against 44.1 (3-4 O/U).
    • NYJ is 2-4 ATS and 4-2 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 3 through Week 8); KC is 2-4 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 2 through Week 8).

    Injuries

    Betting Preview

    I think this total is a bit rich. I do not want to be talked into the Jets offense as a unit that can go to Arrowhead and score a lot; the Raiders’ defense has given up points every week, which says more about that defense than about the Jets.

    New York scored 33 against Las Vegas, but that’s not necessarily predictive against a much tougher Kansas City defense. Geno lost 0-31 last time he went to KC.

    KC boasts the number one UNDER record at home since 2025 (2-10).

    NY’s 3-game over streak has been against the Raiders, Dolphins, and Patriots (game only scored 45 points). Without Garrett Wilson (concussion), we shouldn’t be surprised to see the Jets’ struggle offensively versus a defense that trails only Seattle and Minnesota in success rate.

    New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

    Betting Lines & Odds

    Erickson’s Pick: Giants -3

    Trends

    • As a road favorite (the role it plays here), NYG has not yet been in that role in 2026 (n=0, through Week 8). Overall: across all road games, 2-1 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 1-0 ATS and 0-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 5-2 ATS and 4-3 O/U.
    • As a home underdog (the role it plays here), PHI is 0-3 ATS (0%) and 2-1 O/U in 2026 (n=3, through Week 8). Overall: across all home games, 0-4 ATS and 3-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 1-4 ATS and 2-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 1-7 ATS and 4-4 O/U.
    • The Eagles are 1-7 ATS as a home underdog since Nick Sirianni took over as HC. 0-8 SU in the home underdog role.
    • NYG streaks through Week 8: 4-2-1 straight up (1-game win streak), 5-2 against the spread (1-game cover streak), 4-3 toward the total (4-game Over streak).
    • PHI streaks through Week 8: 2-6 straight up (6-game losing streak), 1-7 against the spread (3-game non-cover streak), 4-4 toward the total (1-game Under streak).
    • NYG comes in off a 27-21 road win at HOU as a -10-point underdog, covering (Week 7; Week 8 bye). PHI comes in off a 10-27 road loss at WAS as a -5.5-point underdog, failing to cover (Week 8; SNF).
    • Days between games: NYG has 14, and PHI has 7.
    • NYG has 7 more days of rest than PHI. Teams with at least 3 more days of rest than their opponent are 18-7-1 ATS and 22-4 straight up in 2026 (26 games, through Week 8). Favorites in that spot are 15-3-1 ATS and 19-0 straight up; underdogs in that spot are 3-4 ATS and 3-4 straight up. NYG is the favorite with the rest edge. Underdogs with at least 3 fewer days of rest than their opponent are 3-15-1 ATS and 0-19 straight up in 2026; PHI is an underdog with a rest deficit in this game.
    • NYG is coming off its Week 8 bye. Teams playing after a bye are 7-3 ATS in 2026 (10 games, through Week 8).
    • Divisional underdogs are 24-16 ATS in 2026 (40 games, through Week 8): home divisional underdogs 8-6 (14 games) and road divisional underdogs 14-10 (24 games). PHI is a home divisional underdog in this game.
    • Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game against the average closing total): NYG 46.3 against 44.4 (4-3 O/U); PHI 42.4 against 42.0 (4-4 O/U).
    • NYG is 4-2 ATS and 4-2 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 2 through Week 7); PHI is 1-5 ATS and 2-4 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 3 through Week 8).

    Injuries

    Betting Preview

    The correct answer is the Giants. I am the known divisional home underdog guy, and I caught myself, because the Eagles are the exception to the rule. Since Nick Sirianni became their head coach, they are 1-7 against the spread and 0-8 straight up as a home underdog, and I learned that a few weeks ago when I backed them in that role, and they let me down.

    The Eagles have no momentum and cannot stop the run (the graphic on Sunday Night Football had them allowing 100 rushing yards in every game), and the Giants are coming off a bye with John Harbaugh calling the shots. Laying points on the road with the J.J. McCarthy feels wrong, but when Joe Milton is the Eagles’ starting QB…this becomes one of my best bets of the week; I should have made the Giants a best bet two weeks ago against Houston as a 10.5-point underdog.

    Watch me convince Seth during our Week 9 Best Bets Show to lay the points with Big Blue:

    The highlights:

    • The Eagles have had a three-and-out on 34.1 pct of drives, the highest rate in the NFL and the highest in a season by any team since the 2014 Raiders (35.9 pct, finished 3-13)
    • The Giants defense has forced a three-and-out on 32.9 pct of drives, the best mark by any defense in the NFL.
    • During their six-game losing streak since Week 3, the Eagles have a -889 total-yards differential, the worst in the NFL and more than 200 yards worse than the next-worst team (Titans, -657), via Next Gen Stats.
    • John Harbaugh is 15-3 in games following a bye, the best record by any head coach in NFL history (minimum 10 games).
    • The Giants have a 14-to-7 rest edge. Favorites in that spot are 15-3-1 ATS and 19-0 straight up.
    • JJ McCarthy has won 5 straight games as a starter (also 5-0 ATS).

    Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers

    Betting Lines & Odds

    Erickson’s Pick: Under 41.5

    Trends

    • As a road favorite (its role here), HOU is 1-1 ATS (50%) and 0-2 O/U in 2026 (n=2, through Week 8). Houston is 1-4 O/U as a road favorite since 2025. Overall: across all road games, 1-1 ATS and 0-2 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 1-4 ATS and 2-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 2-5 ATS and 4-3 O/U. Houston's two road games as a favorite both went Under (versus bad offenses like the Colts/Titans).
    • As a home underdog (the role it plays here), LAC is 0-1 ATS (0%) and 0-1 O/U in 2026 (n=1, through Week 8). Overall: across all home games, 0-3 ATS and 0-3 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 0-4-1 ATS and 1-4 O/U; across all 2026 games, 0-6-1 ATS and 1-6 O/U.
    • HOU streaks through Week 8: 2-5 straight up (1-game losing streak), 2-5 against the spread (1-game non-cover streak), 4-3 toward the total (2-game Over streak).
    • LAC streaks through Week 8: 0-7 straight up (7-game losing streak), 0-6-1 against the spread (6-game non-cover streak), 1-6 toward the total (3-game Under streak). Since 2025, the Bolts are 3-8 at home toward the total.
    • HOU comes in off a 21-27 home loss to NYG as a -10-point favorite and failed to cover (Week 7; Week 8 bye). LAC comes in off a 9-24 road loss at LAR as a -6.5-point underdog and fails to cover (Week 8).
    • Days between games: HOU has 14, and LAC has 7.
    • HOU has 7 more days of rest than LAC. Teams with at least 3 more days of rest than their opponent are 18-7-1 ATS and 22-4 straight up in 2026 (26 games, through Week 8). Favorites in that spot are 15-3-1 ATS and 19-0 straight up; underdogs are 3-4 ATS and 3-4 straight up. HOU is the favorite with the rest edge. Underdogs with at least 3 fewer days of rest than their opponent are 3-15-1 ATS and 0-19 straight up in 2026; LAC is an underdog with a rest deficit in this game.
    • HOU is coming off its Week 8 bye. Teams playing after a bye are 7-3 ATS in 2026 (10 games, through Week 8).
    • Teams coming off a bye have leaned Under: 7-3 to the Under in 2026 through Week 8 (10 games, all the games involving a team off its bye).
    • Home underdogs are 20-21-2 ATS in 2026 (43 games, through Week 8, neutral sites excluded). LAC is a home underdog in this game.
    • Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game vs. the average closing total): HOU 47.9 vs. 43.8 (4-3 O/U); LAC 39.1 vs. 44.6 (1-6 O/U).
    • HOU is 2-4 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 2 through Week 7); LAC is 0-5-1 ATS and 1-5 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 2 through Week 8).

    Injuries

    Betting Preview

    Under, under, under. This is one of my favorite plays on the card. Houston is off its bye and should be well rested, and I think HC DeMeco Ryans will clean up the explosive plays that have been the bugaboo for that defense; the down-to-down success rate has been fine. Meanwhile, the Chargers aren’t creating big plays, and Justin Herbert is constantly under pressure, which doesn’t get easier against Will Anderson (despite the fact that the Texans’ pass rusher believes Herbert is playing out of his mind). The Chargers’ defense hasn’t been the problem; their offense has, with red-zone struggles and turnovers. Take the Under.

    Just a “few” trends/stats that further support this bet on the total.

    • The Chargers are 1-6 O/U overall and 0-3 O/U at home.
    • Since 2025, the Bolts are 3-8 toward the total. Since 2025, 7-17-1 O/U is the worst in the NFL.
    • The Chargers are averaging a league-low 14.1 PPG.
    • Houston's two road games as a favorite both went Under (versus bad offenses like the Colts/Titans).
    • Houston is 1-4 O/U as a road favorite
    • This is a rematch of a Week 17 game last season in LA: Game total closed at 39.5 points and went UNDER. (20-16).
    • Totals of 40.5-42 are 7-12 Over (63% Under).
    • Teams coming off a bye have leaned Under: 7-3 to the Under in 2026 through Week 8 (10 games, all the games involving a team off its bye).
    • The Chargers are an average defense across the board. Top-5 defense on third downs. 9th in EPA/play faced.
    • The Texans rank 6th in defensive success rate (41%) - Chargers offense ranks 32nd in success rate.

            Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

            Betting Lines & Odds

            Erickson’s Pick: Props

            Trends

            • As a road underdog (its role here), ARI is 4-0 ATS (100%) and 2-2 O/U in 2026 (n=4, through Week 8). Overall: across all road games, 4-1 ATS and 3-2 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 4-3 ATS and 4-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 4-4 ATS and 5-3 O/U.
            • As a home favorite (the role it plays here), SEA is 1-2-2 ATS (33%) and 3-2 O/U in 2026 (n=5, through Week 8). Overall: across all home games, 1-2-2 ATS and 3-2 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 2-4-2 ATS and 4-4 O/U; across all 2026 games, 2-4-2 ATS and 4-4 O/U.
            • ARI streaks through Week 8: 3-5 straight up (1-game win streak), 4-4 against the spread (1-game cover streak), 5-3 toward the total (2-game Over streak).
            • SEA streaks through Week 8: 4-4 straight up (1-game losing streak), 2-4-2 against the spread (1-game non-cover streak), 4-4 toward the total (1-game Over streak).
            • Seattle has won 10 straight against the Cardinals (despite scoring last in 9 of them).
            • ARI comes in off a 33-30 road win at DAL as a -7-point underdog, covering (Week 8). SEA comes in off a 17-34 home loss to CHI as a -3-point favorite and fails to cover (Week 8; MNF).
            • Days between games: ARI has 7 and SEA has 6.
            • Divisional underdogs are 24-16 ATS in 2026 (40 games, through Week 8): home divisional underdogs 8-6 (14 games) and road divisional underdogs 14-10 (24 games). ARI is a road divisional underdog in this game.
            • Favorites laying 7 or more points are 8-19-2 ATS in 2026 (29 games; 20 won outright, through Week 8). Home favorites of 7 or more are 6-16-1 ATS (23 games) and road favorites of 7 or more are 2-3-1 ATS (6 games). SEA is laying 8.5 in this game (BettingPros/DraftKings number). The line moved from 11.5 to 8.5 after it was announced that Drew Lock would start for an injured Sam Darnold.
            • Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game vs. the average closing total): ARI 51.6 vs. 48.1 (5-3 O/U); SEA 43.0 vs. 43.1 (4-4 O/U).
            • ARI is 3-3 ATS and 5-1 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 3 through Week 8); SEA is 1-4-1 ATS and 4-2 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 3 through Week 8).

            Injuries

            Betting Preview

            Where have we seen this before? The Cardinals win as big underdogs…and then it goes away the following week.

            Minshew mania surely isn’t meant to last?

            This is a rematch of Week 2: SEA won 31-7, and the Arizona Cardinals mustered just 95 passing yards.

            But with Drew Lock playing this game banged up, I’m lukewarm on Seattle covering this massive spread, with a back-door cover always in play.

            Fade the sides/totals. Bet the props.

            Dare I say, with my Drew Lock of the week. Under on his pass attempts.

            Seattle was already in the bottom 5 in pass rate over expectation this season (-5.5%). Lock has finished under in both of his games this season (Weeks 1 and 2). The last 7 QBs to face Arizona have finished UNDER their pass attempts prop.

            With the Seattle RBs healthier, I’m leaning under on pass attempts for a banged-up QB. The Seattle coaching staff has been very dodgy about Lock returning from his elbow injury. Some concerns about how much he can throw, and that they will be adding another QB just in case.

            Props

            Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots

            Betting Lines & Odds

            Erickson’s Pick: Patriots -3

            Trends

            • As a road underdog (the role it plays here), GB is 1-1 ATS (50%) and 1-1 O/U in 2026 (n=2, through Week 8). Overall: across all road games, 1-2-1 ATS and 1-3 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 2-1 ATS and 1-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 4-3-1 ATS and 2-6 O/U.
            • As a home favorite (the role it plays here), NE is 2-1 ATS (67%) and 2-1 O/U in 2026 (n=3, through Week 8). Overall: across all home games, 2-1 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 2-2 ATS and 3-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-4-1 ATS and 5-3 O/U.
            • GB streaks through Week 8: 5-3 straight up (1-game win streak), 4-3-1 against the spread (4-game cover streak), 2-6 toward the total (5-game Under streak).
            • NE streaks through Week 8: 5-3 straight up (1-game win streak), 3-4-1 against the spread (3-game non-cover streak), 5-3 toward the total (5-game Over streak).
            • GB comes in off a 27-19 home win over CAR as a -3.5-point favorite, covering (Week 8; TNF). NE comes in off a 24-19 road win at MIA as a -7-point favorite, failing to cover (Week 8).
            • Days between games: GB has 10, and NE has 7.
            • GB has 3 more days of rest than NE. Teams with at least 3 more days of rest than their opponent are 18-7-1 ATS and 22-4 straight up in 2026 (26 games, through Week 8). Favorites in that spot are 15-3-1 ATS and 19-0 straight up; underdogs are 3-4 ATS and 3-4 straight up. GB is the underdog with the rest edge.
            • Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game vs. the average closing total): GB 41.9 vs. 47.1 (2-6 O/U); NE 43.2 vs. 45.2 (5-3 O/U).
            • GB is 4-1-1 ATS and 1-5 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 3 through Week 8); NE is 2-4 ATS and 5-1 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 3 through Week 8).

            Injuries

            Betting Preview

            Don’t see some massive edge here. A FG feels exactly spot on for me between these two surging teams that have rebounded in a big way after rocky starts to the season. I liked the under at 47.5, but it has since been bet down.

            I do think home-field advantage pushes me toward the Pats to win a tight game. They have been great versus the number at home (8-3-1 ATS) as home favorites in the Drake Maye-Mike Vrabel era. 4-0 in their last four home games versus teams with a winning record.

            Meanwhile, GB is just 5-9 ATS on the road since 2025. Bad offensive lines don’t travel, and I think this is a spot where the Patriots can dominate up front.

            Tera liked the over on Jordan Love passing TDs at 1.5…and the trends support it. He’s hit at least 2 passing TDs in five straight road games.

            Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers

            Betting Lines & Odds

            Erickson’s Pick: Raiders +10

            Trends

            • As a road underdog (the role it plays here), LV is 3-1 ATS (75%) and 3-1 O/U in 2026 (n=4, through Week 8). Overall: across all road games, 3-1 ATS and 3-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 5-2 ATS and 6-1 O/U; across all 2026 games, 6-2 ATS and 6-2 O/U.
            • As a home favorite (the role it plays here), SF is 2-2 ATS (50%) and 2-2 O/U in 2026 (n=4, through Week 8). Overall: across all home games, 2-2 ATS and 2-2 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 2-3 ATS and 2-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 4-3 ATS and 3-4 O/U.
            • LV streaks through Week 8: 4-4 straight up (1-game win streak), 6-2 against the spread (1-game cover streak), 6-2 toward the total (6-game Over streak).
            • SF streaks through Week 8: 6-1 straight up (1-game losing streak), 4-3 against the spread (2-game non-cover streak), 3-4 toward the total (2-game Under streak).
            • LV comes in off a 38-33 road win at NYJ as a -1.5-point underdog, covering (Week 8). SF comes in off a 20-29 road loss at ATL as a -2.5-point favorite, failing to cover (Week 7; Week 8 bye).
            • Days between games: LV has 7, and SF has 14.
            • SF has 7 more days of rest than LV. Teams with at least 3 more days of rest than their opponent are 18-7-1 ATS and 22-4 straight up in 2026 (26 games, through Week 8). Favorites in that spot are 15-3-1 ATS and 19-0 straight up; underdogs in that spot are 3-4 ATS and 3-4 straight up. SF is the favorite with the rest edge. Underdogs with at least 3 fewer days of rest than their opponent are 3-15-1 ATS and 0-19 straight up in 2026; LV is an underdog with a rest deficit in this game.
            • SF is coming off its Week 8 bye. Teams playing after a bye are 7-3 ATS in 2026 (10 games, through Week 8).
            • However, the Niners are just 1-4-1 ATS after a bye week since 2021.
            • Favorites laying 7 or more points are 8-19-2 ATS in 2026 (29 games; 20 won outright, through Week 8). Home favorites of 7 or more are 6-16-1 ATS (23 games) and road favorites of 7 or more are 2-3-1 ATS (6 games). SF is laying 10 in this game (BettingPros/DraftKings number).
            • Home favorites laying 10 or more points are 2-5 ATS in 2026 (7 games, neutral sites excluded).
            • Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game vs. the average closing total): LV 56.4 vs. 46.1 (6-2 O/U); SF 48.0 vs. 48.1 (3-4 O/U).
            • LV is 4-2 ATS and 6-0 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 3 through Week 8); SF is 3-3 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 2 through Week 7).

            Injuries

            Betting Preview

            This number is too high based on how Kirk Cousins has played this season. Cousins ranks second in passing TDs, 3rd in yards, and 7th in EPA/dropback. And this is arguably the best offense the Niners have faced this season.

            Las Vegas is 3-1 ATS as a road underdog and 6-2 ATS overall.

            Underdogs of 7 to 9.5 are 14-5-2 ATS in 2026, and all spreads of 7 or more are 19-8-2 (70%). Big spreads: underdogs getting 7 or more are 19-8-2 ATS (70%) this season. Home favorites laying 10 or more points are just 2-5 ATS in 2026 (7 games, neutral sites excluded). Home favorites of 7 or more are 6-16-1 ATS. In the 4 games that had both a 50-plus total and a spread of 7 or more, underdogs went 3-1 ATS. Those four were the Chargers at the Bills, the Cardinals at the Rams, Washington at the 49ers, and the Cardinals at Dallas.

            I understand that the Niners have the rest edge coming off their bye week (14 days vs. 7): and rest-edge favorites are 15-3-1 ATS. However, the Niners are just 1-4-1 ATS after a bye week since 2021.

            I expect the Raiders to sling the ball plenty in this game with no semblance of a run game. That will keep them within the 10-point spread.

            Speaking of the Raiders’ lack of rushing success.

            Take the under on Mike Washington’s rush attempts (-117).
            Gone over 10.5 once this season (last week). It was split as follows:
            First half: 7 carries for 24 yards. Second half: 18 carries for 59 yards.

            Raiders HC Klint Kubiak even admitted that

            Again, I don't think the Raiders will be able to run the ball at all
            The 49ers have faced the 5th-highest pass rate this season due to playing with leads. The 49ers also added DL DeForest Buckner during their bye week. Top-10 fewest rushing yards allowed per game and RB rush attempts faced. The Raiders offense ranks 31st in EPA/rush. The 49ers defense ranks 1st in EPA/rush.

            Fade Washington and bet the overs on Ashton Jeanty as a receiver. The official “squad ride” player prop from me and Tera from the Week 9 Players Props show (S/O to Tera for filling in for Welsh).

            Props

            Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears

            Betting Lines & Odds

            Erickson’s Pick: Buccaneers +6, Under 47.5

            Trends

            • As a road underdog (its role here), TB is 2-1 ATS (67%) and 2-1 O/U in 2026 (n=3, through Week 8). Overall: across all road games, 2-1 ATS and 2-1 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 2-3-1 ATS and 3-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 3-4-1 ATS and 4-4 O/U.
            • As a home favorite (the role it plays here), CHI is 2-1 ATS (67%) and 1-2 O/U in 2026 (n=3, through Week 8). Overall: across all home games, 3-1 ATS and 1-3 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 4-2 ATS and 3-3 O/U; across all 2026 games, 6-2 ATS and 4-4 O/U.
            • TB streaks through Week 8: 3-5 straight up (2-game win streak), 3-4-1 against the spread (2-game cover streak), 4-4 toward the total (1-game Under streak).
            • CHI streaks through Week 8: 6-2 straight up (3-game win streak), 6-2 against the spread (3-game cover streak), 4-4 toward the total (3-game Over streak).
            • TB comes in off a 16-0 home win over ATL as a -2.5-point favorite, covering (Week 8). CHI comes in off a 34-17 road win at SEA as a -3-point underdog, covering (Week 8; MNF).
            • Days between games: TB has 7, and CHI has 6.
            • Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game vs. the average closing total): TB 41.1 vs. 43.1 (4-4 O/U); CHI 46.8 vs. 47.5 (4-4 O/U).
            • TB is 3-2-1 ATS and 2-4 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 3 through Week 8); CHI is 5-1 ATS and 3-3 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 3 through Week 8).
            • Sunday-night games in 2026 through Week 8: underdogs 5-3 ATS and favorites 3-5 ATS (8 games), O/U 4-4. Across all 25 prime-time games, underdogs are 15-9-1 ATS and favorites 9-15-1, with the O/U at 12-13. TB is 1-0 ATS and 0-1 O/U in 1 prime-time game; CHI is 3-0 ATS and 2-1 O/U in 3 prime-time games.

            Injuries

            Betting Preview

            A few different angles I like for this game. The under and the underdogs. Both teams want to run the football, which lends itself to fewer plays and potentially fewer points.

            The Buccaneers’ defense has been elite against the run. Per Next Gen Stats, Tampa Bay has allowed 3.5 yards per carry (5th-fewest) and a 30.8% success rate (2nd-lowest) on early-down runs.
            The Bears have called runs on early downs at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL (49.2%), but their 34.6% success rate on them falls below the league average of 36.9%.

            DT Jeffery Simmons has injected new life into the Bears’ defense, which might make life a bit tougher for Tampa Bay’s offense.

            Chicago is riding high (or, as Pat Fitzmaurice described on the Tailgate show, as fat-and-happy) after dismantling the Seahawks in their building. But they had extra time to prepare for Mike Macdonald…not the case here versus a strong and different Todd Bowles’ defense.

            And when do you want to be on Baker Mayfield? When he is an underdog on the road, catching almost a full TD. I would scratch TB off the card, though, if Tristan Wirfs does not play (pivot to the under).

            Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings

            Betting Lines & Odds

            Erickson’s Pick: Bills -3

            Trends

            • As a road favorite (the role it plays here), BUF is 1-1 ATS (50%) and 2-0 O/U in 2026 (n=2, through Week 8). Overall: across all road games, 2-1 ATS and 3-0 O/U; across all games as a favorite, 4-2 ATS and 4-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 5-2 ATS and 5-2 O/U. The Bills have won 7 of their last 8 road games.
            • As a home underdog (the role it plays here), MIN has not yet been in that role in 2026 (n=0, through Week 8). Overall: across all home games, 1-2 ATS and 1-2 O/U; across all games as an underdog, 1-1 ATS and 0-2 O/U; across all 2026 games, 4-3 ATS and 1-6 O/U.
            • BUF streaks through Week 8: 6-1 straight up (3-game win streak), 5-2 against the spread (1-game cover streak), 5-2 toward the total (1-game Under streak).
            • MIN streaks through Week 8: 6-1 straight up (1-game losing streak), 4-3 against the spread (2-game non-cover streak), 1-6 toward the total (6-game Under streak).
            • The Vikings are 4-3 ATS in Wentz starts since 2025 (small sample).
            • BUF comes in off a 36-10 home win over BAL as a -3-point favorite, covering (Week 8). MIN comes in off a 15-19 road loss at DET as a -3.5-point underdog and fails to cover (Week 8).
            • Days between games: BUF has 8, and MIN has 8.
            • Home underdogs are 20-21-2 ATS in 2026 (43 games, through Week 8, neutral sites excluded). MIN is a home underdog in this game.
            • Scoring environment in 2026 (combined points per game vs. the average closing total): BUF 59.1 vs. 51.6 (5-2 O/U); MIN 33.3 vs. 43.5 (1-6 O/U).
            • BUF is 4-2 ATS and 4-2 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 2 through Week 8); MIN is 3-3 ATS and 0-6 O/U over its last six games (2026 Week 2 through Week 8).
            • Monday-night games in 2026 through Week 8: underdogs are 5-3 ATS and favorites 3-5 ATS (8 games), and the O/U is 4-4. Across all 25 prime-time games, underdogs are 15-9-1 ATS and favorites 9-15-1, with the O/U at 12-13. BUF is 2-0 ATS and 2-0 O/U in 2 prime-time games; MIN has not played a prime-time game in 2026.

            Injuries

            Betting Preview

            One of Seth Woolock’s best bets for Week 9 is the Bills -3. We broke it down on the Week 9 Best Bets Show.

            And I tend to agree.

            I like the Bills to win and cover, and I would take them at 3.5 or 4. Buffalo’s offense is leaving meat on the bone, with Josh Allen not at his best in three or four games this season and the Bills still winning, and the Vikings’ offense is the worst unit in this game (even with Carson Wentz under center). The Vikings’ defense is fantastic, which is why I do not trust the Bills’ number to be an easy cover, but I still like Buffalo. The Vikings’ biggest offensive challenge this year was last week versus Detroit, and they lost.

            The Vikings’ defense held a Lions offense that entered averaging 30.7 points per game to just 19 points, generated four sacks and limited Detroit to one touchdown on three red-zone trips.

            Minnesota entered undefeated and held a 15-12 fourth-quarter lead against Detroit before Jared Goff engineered the winning touchdown drive

            Even so…Buffalo’s offense is another extremely tall task.

            Per Next Gen Stats: The Bills are averaging an NFL-leading 33.3 points per game in 2026, while the Vikings are allowing an NFL-best 13.3 points per game. The NFL’s top-ranked scoring offense is 5-2 against the top-ranked scoring defense in games played in November or later since 2000, based on rankings entering that week.

            As for me, I really like the under on Aaron Jones’ rushing yards.

            He’s been UNDER 33.5 rushing yards in the last two games since Jordan Mason returned to the lineup.

            Jones is bottom-10 in rushing yards AFTER contact this season.

            And I think the Buffalo Bills’ run defense is UNDERRATED.

            • 4th-highest stuff rate
            • Top-10 in fewest rushing yards allowed per game to opposing RBs.
            • 4th-fewest rush rate faced this season
            • Fewest rushing yards allowed before contact per attempt

            Props

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