NFL Black Friday Picks & Player Prop Bets: Raiders vs. Chiefs (Week 13)
Black Friday just got a whole lot brighter with this exclusive AFC West showdown between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Kansas City Chiefs! Forget the shopping lines - this year, Amazon Prime delivers one of the most anticipated matchups of the season straight to your screen.
As Patrick Mahomes and the 10-1 Chiefs look to tighten their grip on the division, the 2-9 Raiders are ready to bring the fight in what promises to be a thrilling, hard-hitting clash. With divisional pride, playoff implications, and plenty of fireworks on the line, this game will be a must-watch for fans and bettors alike.
I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'll be breaking down every angle of this Black Friday bonanza - from the spread and total to my favorite player props for the game. So, grab your leftovers, settle in, and get ready for a prime-time AFC West battle that's sure to light up your post-Thanksgiving weekend.
Let the Black Friday football frenzy begin!
NFL Week 13 Black Friday Showdown: Raiders vs. Chiefs on Prime Video
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Sides:
- The Chiefs have covered the spread in 10 of their last 17 games.
- The Chiefs have won 16 of their last 17 games.
- The underdogs have covered the spread in 17 of the Chiefs’ last 24 games.
- The Chiefs have won eight of their last nine games as underdogs.
- The Chiefs have covered the spread in six of their last nine road games.
- The Chiefs are sub-50% ATS at home and ATS in their last 23 home games
- The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in their last five games.
- The Raiders have covered the spread in eight of their last 15 games.
- The Raiders are 12-8-1 ATS over their last 21 games.
- LV is 13-7-1 ATS at home (66%). They are 5-4-1 as home underdogs ATS but just 2-7 straight up.
- The Raiders have covered the spread in five of their last nine road games.
- The Raiders have lost 11 of their last 13 road games.
Totals:
- Eleven of the Chiefs’ last 18 games have gone UNDER the total points line (13 of the last 20).
- Since the start of 2023, the Chiefs have allowed just two teams to score 27 points against them (the Bills in Week 11 and the Panthers in Week 12).
- They are undefeated when they hold teams to 17 points or less.
- KC is 3-2 toward the over at home this season (44.2 points per game).
- Ten of the Raiders' last 21 games have gone UNDER the total points line, and they are 14-13 toward the under.
- Five of the Raiders' last 10 road games have gone UNDER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Six of the Raiders’ last seven games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of the Raiders’ last four games has gone OVER the total points line.
- Six of the Raiders’ last seven home games have gone OVER the total points line.
- The Raiders are 3-1 toward the over at home, with games averaging 46.5 points per game.
Overall:
As reported by NFL.com's Tom Pelissero, Aidan O'Connell is being prepped to start this week, assuming all is well with his thumb. I think having AOC is a big upgrade from Desmond Ridder.
But is O'Connell's presence enough to the 13-point spread on the road? They did it last season against KC, winning outright 20-14 as 10.5 underdogs. However, O'Connell didn't do much, as the defense scored two TDs.
Including last season, O’Connell is 5-7 as a starter and 8-3-1 ATS. Still on the road against KC isn’t an ideal spot for him (but hey, they won last season!).
But I don't think it's a closed case that KC covers this massive spread. They haven't covered a massive spread seemingly all season. Eight of the Chiefs’ nine wins this season (8-0 in close games this season) have been close games, including against the Raiders back in Week 8 with a seven-point win (Raiders back-door covered). But it was a seven-point game heading into the fourth quarter.
The Raiders have covered more than their fair share of road games as underdogs, and KC has shown no reason to back them even at home by this many points.
If AOC plays, give me the Raiders +13. The Chiefs’ defense has been exposed in the last two weeks. The Bills are okay. The Panthers? Now you have my attention.
And what is one of the Chiefs’ biggest weaknesses? Stopping tight ends.
According to Next Gen Stats, Brock Bowers has generated the most yards after the catch (400) and the 2nd-most yards after the catch over expected (+108) among all tight ends this season.
Bowers has recorded more YAC than expected on 49 receptions this season, already tied for the 11th-most in a full season by any tight end over the past 7 seasons. The Chiefs have allowed the most yards after catch to tight ends this season (407) and +38 yards after catch over expected (12th-most). No team has allowed more yards to TEs this season than the Chiefs. Bowers has gone over 61.5 receiving yards in both of AOC's starts this season. He went five for 58 when these teams first met.
Props:
Whenever the Aidan O'Connell rushing props drop, take the under. The Raiders QB does not scramble ever. Per Next Gen Stats, O’Connell has not attempted a single scramble rush on any of his dropbacks since entering the NFL in 2023. O'Connell is the only quarterback in the Next Gen Stats era to not record a single scramble rush attempt on any dropback (min. 150 dropbacks).
My Picks: