NFL Christmas Picks & Player Prop Bets: Week 17 (2025)
Merry Christmas, ya filthy animals - here are your three gifts from the NFL: home underdogs, ugly quarterback situations, and spreads that make you question your life choices. We've got all three home teams starting third-string QBs (Josh Johnson, Brosmer, Chris Oluk...(still not sure I'm saying it right)), and somehow the league is acting like this is the new Thanksgiving (where we had a clean sweep of underdogs winning outright).
But the angle is pretty clear: Thursday home underdogs have been cooking all year, and even when these games look disgusting, one of them usually goes sideways.
We've seen the divisional underdogs absolutely COOK on Thursday nights this season - 85%-plus clip through 16 weeks - with many overall dogs winning outright (eight of the last 12).
Thursday Night Football divisional underdogs are 9-1 ATS this season. 4-6 straight up.
The key is figuring out which one...and where you can avoid the chaos by attacking totals/props instead.
These holiday games tend to create inflated narratives and overreactions, which is exactly where bettors can find value by staying disciplined.
With standalone slates, condensed rotations, and national audiences, props and game scripts often tell the real story - not just sides and totals.
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Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders
Thursday, 1:00 PM ET (Netflix)
Erickson's Pick: Cowboys -8.5
Confidence: ★★★
Trends:
- Each of the Commanders’ last six games as home underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
- The Commanders have lost nine of their last 10 games.
- Dak Prescott is 10-5 ATS as a road favorite within the division (BetMGM).
- Dallas is 11-5 ATS in the division since 2023.
- Dallas has won nine straight as favorites in the division.
- The Cowboys have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games against the Commanders (5 straight).
- Four of those covers have been by seven points or more.
- Dallas has covered at least -11 point spreads in their last two games in Washington.
- Dallas has won 15 of their last 18 games after a loss
- 10 of the Cowboys' last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- The Commanders have lost nine of their last 10 games.
- The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games against NFC opponents.
- When Washington allows 20 points or fewer on defense, they are 11-4 toward the Under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 29-8 toward the OVER (78%).
- Washington is 5-1-1 toward the OVER at home this season. 5-0 toward the OVER as a home underdog since 2024.
Overall:
This is the "please don't make me bet this" game...and yet, here we are. Washington is a mess regardless of who is under center, and their defense is the type of unit that can make even a flawed offense look competent. If I'm playing sides, I'm leaning Dallas laying the points because it's the cleanest way to bet "the more functional team," even though the broader Thursday trend has been home dogs cooking. Total-wise, I get the Under angle, but I'd rather bet the side than try to predict how goofy this gets with QB uncertainty.
I think the Dallas defense (if they get DT Quinnen Williams back) can thwart the Commanders' run game. I also think that Dallas' pass rush can get after the Commanders QB, considering they are down potentially multiple offensive linemen.
Since his Week 11 Cowboys debut, Quinnen Williams has pressured the quarterback on 20.3% of his pass rushes (highest among defensive tackles, min. 50 pass rushes) according to Next Gen Stats. He has generated five or more pressures in four of his five games after he failed to do so in any of his eight games with the Jets. Since acquiring Williams, the Cowboys have generated pressure at a 36.8% rate with Williams on the field (40.8% with both him and Osa Odighizuwa), compared to just 25.8% without Williams.
Josh Johnson has lost seven of his nine career starts by seven points or more.
If you are concerned about the divisional underdog angle on Thursdays, consider teasing the lines. Bring Dallas down to -2.5 and bet the game total Over 44.5 (80% hit rate in Cowboys' games this season).
CeeDee Lamb has gone OVER 5.5 receptions in four straight. He was also recently snubbed from the Pro Bowl. You do the math against this terrible Commanders defense.
Lamb caught 5-of-8 targets for a team-high 100 yards and a touchdown earlier this year versus the Commanders while playing on 77.4% of the Cowboys' offensive snaps (48-of-62) in his first game back from an ankle injury suffered in Week 3.
George Pickens has scored in 5-of-7 games when Dallas has been a favorite this season. Commanders are allowing the third-most passing TDs/game (2.0) this season.
Props:
Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings
Thursday, 4:30 PM ET (Netflix)
Erickson's Pick: Lions -7.5
Confidence: ★★
Trends:
- The Lions have won each of their last 10 games as road favorites.
- The Lions have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 games against the Vikings.
- Seven of the Lions’ last eight games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of the Lions' last seven games in December has gone OVER the total points line.
- Six of the Vikings’ last seven games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Vikings are 2-4 O/U at home this season (41.5 PPG).
- The Vikings have won seven of their last 11 home games.
- Minnesota is 2-5 ATS after a win (2-5 straight up).
- All but 16 of the Vikings’ last 46 games have been decided by eight points or fewer (76%).
Overall:
This one screams "gross divisional holiday football." The Vikings’ defense can absolutely wreck games, and we're likely looking at more quarterback volatility again on Minnesota's side with Max Brosmer making his second start.
Detroit should be the professional team here, but the matchup is uncomfortable enough that I'm not forcing it early. If you made me bet it, the "good process" is usually close your eyes and take Detroit after another loss, but I'm not pretending this feels great.
The Vikings defense can keep this ugly, and Minnesota at home adds the "one of these home dogs covers" feel. They tend to keep games within 8 points (67% cover rate when catching at least 6.5 points) and Brosmer should be better playing at home versus the Lions' defense, versus on the road versus Seattle.
But when in doubt, Lions ATS is never a low EV bet (especially after two straight failed covers).
I think this game is better suited for props than sides/totals.
Aaron Jones has caught four passes once this season - and it was with Max Brosmer under center. T.J. Hockenson was his most targeted receiver in that game and he is highly questionable to play with a shoulder injury. If the Lions TE is out, more underneath targets for Jones out of the backfield.
Additionally, note that Jones was well on his way to a big receiving line vs. the Lions earlier this season - but he got hurt. 98 total yards on just 11 touches.
Jahmyr Gibbs posted a comically low two rushing yards on seven carries (also fumbled) last week. David Montgomery wasn't much better (4 for 14 yards). Monty played just 13 offensive snaps (19%).
He has not cracked north of 10 opportunities in the last six games. Back-to-back games, Monty has played season lows in snaps.
It's been trending downward in recent weeks (15-plus opportunities in just two of the last eight games), and the Lions' slight offensive regression in 2025 is hurting Monty (especially with OL injuries).
However, as Pat Fitzmaurice pointed out this week on the FantasyPros Week 17 RB Rankings Show...the Vikings defense is a run-funnel. Monty could see his largest output in a while.
Montgomery handled 11 carries for 40 yards (3.6 YPC) in the first matchup versus Minnesota, whereas Gibbs only had nine carries for 25 yards.
Presuming we also get some positive game script, Montgomery should see enough rushing attempts to get over his low prop lines. Monty has at least 32 rushing yards in five of his last eight games played.
Jared Goff was the last QB to throw over 1.5 passing TDs versus the Vikings back in Week 9.
Justin Jefferson has gone over 62.5 receiving yards just once since Week 9. He had four yards in Brosmer's first start. In his last two games versus the Lions, he has failed to hit 55 receiving yards.
Props:
- Aaron Jones Over 3.5 Receptions
- Justin Jefferson Under 62.5 Receiving Yards
- David Montgomery Over 32.5 Rushing Yards
- Jared Goff Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Thursday, 8:15 PM ET (Prime Video)
Erickson's Pick: Chiefs +13.5 (Lean under 36.5)
Confidence: ★★★★
Trends:
- The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games.
- In each of the Chiefs’ last seven games, their opponents have been the first to 15 points.
- The Broncos have won each of their last 11 games as heavy favorites (>-7.0 points).
- The Broncos are 7-1 at home this season, but just 4-4 ATS
- Denver is 0-3 ATS as a road favorite. 2-8 ATS as a favorite overall in 2025.
- Each of the Chiefs’ last six home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- KC is 1-7 O/U at home this season (38 PPG)
- In each of the Chiefs’ last four games as underdogs, the first score has been an opponent Touchdown.
- Each of the Chiefs' last eight home games against AFC West opponents has gone UNDER the total points line.
Overall:
When is the last time you saw Kansas City catching +13.5 at home? It's been a minute. The vibes are awful, the QB situation is worse, and the spread is still enormous. Here's the issue: the process says take the home double-digit dog... but this is the exact type of spot that tests your faith because you might be betting a full-on offensive disaster. If I'm betting early, I'm leaning Chiefs +13.5 strictly as a "defense + number" bet.
After all, my leans on the early games are on the favorites. If those favorites both win/cover, the odds are even more in favor of KC covering this massive spread.
Denver has shown zero consistency in covering as road favorites this season.
Trust the process.
You're betting KC's defense to keep it within two TDs - nothing more romantic than that on Christmas. The Chiefs are allowing the second-fewest points per game at home this season (15.0).
I'd say the Under is the way to go in this game, but the total has been completely nuked to 36.5 points. The last five DEN-KC games have all gone UNDER, but those totals all closed north of 41 points. Even so, I still think the under is the move. With Patrick Mahomes and this KC defense, Chiefs games at Arrowhead were averaging 38.5. Throw in a third-string QB and the Broncos defense - the total might STILL not be low enough based on how these teams play each other.
The Broncos scored one TD the last time they faced the Chiefs' defense back in Week 11.
RJ Harvey has gone over 15.5 receiving yards in four of the five games since JK Dobbins was injured, including against KC.
The other RB usage note from that game was Jaleel McLaughlin. He drew two goal-line carries and scored. Whether it's in a garbage time or by design in the first quarter, I like the odds of betting on an RB of a heavy favorite to score. Also coming off a season high in rushing yards versus the No. 1 run defense in the NFL.
Props: