NFL Divisional Round Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (2023)
After a crazy Wild Card weekend, NFL fans have another packed weekend of playoff games to look forward to. The Sunday slate includes the two games with the tightest spreads of the weekend – Cincinnati at Buffalo and Dallas at San Francisco. Both games feature major storylines and excellent matchups. Both games also have some intriguing value available in DraftKings’ Same Game Parlay markets. Below are two SGPs I’ll be playing on Sunday.
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2023 NFL Divisional Weekend: Sunday’s Best Same Game Parlays
Here are two of our favorite same-game parlays for Sunday’s games on NFL Divisional Weekend.
Bengals @ Bills
Leg 1: Bengals +7.5 (-160)
Given the Bengals’ recent success, the +5.5 line coming into this game feels like they’re getting too many points. While last week’s playoff win over the Ravens wasn’t pretty, it was a big win over a team that executed solidly. Including that game, the Bengals have won nine straight games. Four of these nine wins came against teams that made the playoffs this year.
Buffalo is on an eight-game winning streak of their own, albeit a less impressive streak than the Bengals. The Bills only have two wins in that stretch over 2022 playoff teams – both came against the Dolphins, and both were by only three points. This includes last week’s ugly win over third-string QB Skylar Thompson. Josh Allen has been a turnover machine lately, throwing 5 INTs in his last three games.
The alternate spread of 7.5 points gives us a little breathing room here, but I don’t think the Bills will come out and roll the Bengals. In fact, the last time these two teams played – in the game that was canceled due to the tragic Damar Hamlin incident – Cincinnati was outplaying Buffalo early on. I think the Bengals keep this one close and may even pull the upset on the road.
Leg 2: Ja’Marr Chase Anytime TD (+135)
If the Bengals are going to win on Sunday, they’ll need to rely on star WR Ja’Marr Chase. Chase has been the focal point of the Bengals’ offense in recent weeks. Over their last five games, Chase has had 42 catches on 64 targets for four touchdowns. Chase also saw 11 red zone targets in the Bengals’ last five regular season games.
Chase should have a good matchup to get in the end zone against Buffalo. The Bills allowed 18 receiving TDs to opposing WRs in the regular season – the fourth-highest mark in the league. Part of this is the fact that the Bills’ opponents often find themselves trailing, but it does represent a relative weakness in their defense.
If the Bengals lean on Ja’Marr Chase on Sunday, not only does he have a good chance of scoring, but they have a good chance of pulling off the upset.
Parlay Odds: +230
Cowboys @ 49ers
Leg 1: 49ers ML (-195)
Dallas looked better than I had anticipated last week, blowing out the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay. While they looked impressive on both sides of the ball, I don’t think their success will carry over into a win Sunday. The 49ers have continued to impress since rookie quarterback Brock Purdy took over. They’ve won 11 straight games, the last seven of which have been started by Purdy. Their success has been predicated on running the ball and stopping the run. Over their 11-game win streak, they’ve out-rushed every opponent they’ve played. They’ve averaged 154 yards on the ground over that stretch, compared to averaging 72 yards allowed.
I expect Dallas to be in trouble if the 49ers can make the Cowboys one-dimensional on offense. The Cowboys have thrived on a balanced offense this year, averaging 135 rushing yards and 230 passing yards per game. Unless Dallas fares better than each of the 49ers’ last 11 opponents, they’ll need to get more out of their passing game to supplement a lack of rushing production.
I think the Cowboys struggle to move the ball on Sunday, and the 49ers take care of business at home.
Leg 2: Ezekiel Elliott U34.5 Rush Yards (+115)
This prop is tied closely to the rushing stats mentioned above. Even still, fading Zeke is a great way to double down on exposure to the San Francisco run defense. Elliott has averaged just 24.7 yards per game over his last three games on a total of 40 carries in that stretch. This equates to a yards-per-carry average of under 1.9 YPC.
As mentioned before, I expect Dallas to struggle to run the ball and throw early and often. Even if they do establish a ground game, I anticipate Tony Pollard will be the more productive member of the backfield. This is a great way to get better odds on the thesis that led us toward 49ers ML.
Parlay Odds: +180
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