NFL Futures: AFC Over/Under Win Totals for 2019
One of the most intriguing parts of the summer is searching for values in NFL futures bets. My favorite of these is the early-season win totals. At this stage of the year, the totals can be quite conservative, and that’s especially the case now. It is unusual to see no teams projected to win 12 or more games, and there is also a lot of parity at the bottom. In 2018, seven teams won five or fewer games, but in 2019 there are just two teams projected to finish with five or fewer wins. That presents an opportunity for plenty of value prior to injuries and cuts affecting the lines. Let’s take a look at the AFC over/under win totals to see which ones present good value.
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Baltimore Ravens – 8.5 wins
Last Season: 10-6
The AFC North is going to be a tough division to predict this season. The Ravens are the defending champions, but the Browns and Steelers should push them all the way. I can make a case for the Ravens winning anywhere from 7-11 games, so my lean is to the over. The early money has been on the under, leaving the over at evens and presenting some value. However, this is not a line I am confident betting on either way.
Verdict: Lean Over @ Evens
Buffalo Bills – 7 wins
Last season: 6-10
The Bills should continue to make strides this season, with an improving Josh Allen reinforced by a good offseason. However, in a division in which the Jets are also improving and the Patriots are still the Patriots, it is hard to be bullish that they can get to 8-8. The early money has again been on the under, but despite the odds being evens for the over, there are just too many question marks.
Verdict: Stay Away
Cincinnati Bengals – 6 wins
Last season: 6-10
The Bengals had a tough season with injuries last year, and it is hard to deny they are talented. However, they are in a stacked division and could easily go 0-6 or 1-5 within it. They host Arizona, Jacksonville, and San Francisco, which could give them an opportunity for three wins, and trips to both Buffalo and Miami are also winnable. However, even with those favorable games, the most wins I see them having is six, which would be a push at the current line. Interestingly, the early money has been on the over, pushing the odds to the under to evens and making it a great value.
Verdict: Strong Under @ Evens
Cleveland Browns – 9 wins
Last season: 7-8-1
The Browns have arguably improved more than any other team this offseason, and they have added pieces that can help immediately. However, they still have a young core and an inexperienced head coach, so there are likely to still be growing pains. There are also some questionable character situations with the team, which could lead to things blowing up fast if games are not going their way. The Browns are rightly given an outside shot at the Super Bowl, but I can make the case for them finishing anywhere between seven and 11 wins. While the fun lean would be to the over, there is no value there with the early money going that way.
Verdict: Stay Away
Denver Broncos – 7 wins
Last season: 6-10
This line makes no sense to me. I do not see how the Broncos have gotten better this offseason. Emmanuel Sanders will be limited to start the season, and Joe Flacco is at best a minor upgrade from Case Keenum. Playing their home games at high altitude always give them a shot, but they have a really tough road schedule. Despite early money on the under limiting the value, that is still the only real bet you can make here, especially given that seven wins would be a money back push.
Verdict: Strong Under @ -120
Houston Texans – 8.5 wins
Last season: 11-5
Much like the AFC North, the South is going to be another tough division to call. The Texans were good last season but crumbled in the playoffs. They took advantage of a relatively easy 2018 schedule to win 11 games. Although their home schedule is no picnic this year, it’s still one they can go 7-1 against. Their road schedule is tougher, and that is where their weak offensive line could be exploited, but 8.5 wins seems like too big of a drop.
Verdict: Lean Over @ -110
Indianapolis Colts – 10 wins
Last season: 10-6
Once Andrew Luck got healthy last season, the Colts absolutely rolled through the second half. They built their team around a strong offensive line and have now added pieces to both sides of their team. Logically they should improve again this season, and for that reason, I am going to look to the over, especially with early money placed on the under.
Verdict: Over @ Evens
Jacksonville Jaguars – 8 wins
Last season: 5-11
This essentially comes down to whether Nick Foles can deliver a three-game improvement for the Jaguars. Their defense has a lot of talent, but they do not have a great offensive line or outside playmakers. With the Colts and Texans both likely to be over .500 this season, my lean is toward the under.
Verdict: Lean Under @ -110
Kansas City Chiefs – 10 wins
Last season: 12-4
The Chiefs are incredibly talented, but there are so many question marks surrounding the team right now. There is likely to be natural regression given just how good Patrick Mahomes was last year. However, they have addressed some of their defensive issues, so 10 wins should still be more than possible. There is not a huge amount of value on the over, as that is where the early money has been.
Verdict: Over @ -120
Los Angeles Chargers – 10 wins
Last season: 12-4
The Chargers are an extremely talented team that demonstrated immense versatility last year. Their season ended with an ugly loss in New England, which may contribute to the early money going to the under. The lowest number I have them winning is nine, and I could see that going as high as 13. The value on the over right now is tremendous.
Verdict: Strong Over @ Evens
Miami Dolphins – 5 wins
Last season: 7-9
Thinking back, I have no idea how the Dolphins won seven games last year. They have also gotten worse this offseason while their division has generally improved. However, the heat in Miami gives them a tremendous home-field advantage, making this a close to impossible line to call.
Verdict: Stay Away
New England Patriots – 11.5 wins
Last season: 11-5
The Patriots are coming off yet another Super Bowl title and 11-win season. However, their biggest offensive weapon (Rob Gronkowski) has retired, and Tom Brady is another year older. This team always finds a way to win at least 10 games, but there are enough question marks on either side that I am staying away from this line entirely.
Verdict: Stay Away
New York Jets – 7.5 wins
Last season: 4-12
The Jets have a young QB who should only improve and have had a strong offseason. However, jumping up four wins is a big ask in a division which has the juggernaut Patriots and the progressing Bills. Seven or eight victories sounds exactly right, and therefore this is a line to stay away from.
Verdict: Stay Away
Oakland Raiders – 6.5 wins
Last season: 4-12
The Raiders have added some talented pieces this offseason, but their coaching is still a massive question mark. They should improve, and we’ll see what Derek Carr is really made of this season. Their road schedule is extremely tough, and for that reason, I struggle to see them going over six wins. I’m leaning under despite a lack of value.
Verdict: Lean Under @ -125
Pittsburgh Steelers – 9 wins
Last season: 9-7
Who really knows what to make of the Steelers? They won nine games last year but have now lost Antonio Brown. They added a key part to their defense by drafting linebacker Devin Bush, but is that really going to be enough to tip them over to 10-plus wins? While Ben Roethlisberger will be playing with a chip on his shoulder, the chance this blows up in their face means I could see them winning anywhere from six to 12 games.
Verdict: Stay Away
Tennessee Titans – 8 wins
Last season: 9-7
The Titans could be the big losers if the AFC South turns into the nightmare division. They have a lot of question marks surrounding their quarterback situation, but Marcus Mariota remains extremely talented. Eight wins feels almost spot-0n. Therefore, I would stay away from this play.
Verdict: Stay Away
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Ben Rolfe is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Ben, check out his archive and follow him @benrolfe15.