NFL Futures: AFC South Exact Order of Finish (2020)
One of the most common NFL futures bets is wagering on who will win each division. It keeps bettors entertained all season long and has the potential for decent returns in some cases.
While some division races have clearly defined favorites, others figure to be wide open entering the 2020-21 season. One division that projects to be hotly contested and up for grabs is the AFC South. The AFC South is the only division with three teams that have less than +300 odds, according to BetMGM. Thus, it will be a hard division to predict but stands to offer the best returns as opposed to picking heavy favorites in other divisions.
Thankfully for bettors who do not mind getting a little more creative, BetMGM is offering odds on the exact outcome for every division. Thus, if you can accurately predict who will finish first all the way down to fourth place, a much heftier payday is in the cards. When the “favorite†for such a bet has +130 odds, as is the case with the AFC South, you know it is one that bettors should look into.
Let’s take a look at BetMGM’s odds for the AFC South exact order of finish, and offer our best bet for the upcoming season.
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AFC South Exact Order of Finish (odds courtesy of BetMGM)
The Jaguars are a Lock to Finish Fourth
Think of making a wager of this type as a puzzle and trying to fit the pieces that you know will fit in first. The easiest piece of the AFC South division puzzle is slotting in the Jacksonville Jaguars as the last-place finisher.
Jacksonville has the best odds at +400 for the most regular-season losses of any team in the league, according to BetMGM. The Jaguars appear all-in on young quarterback Gardner Minshew, but appear to lack the big-play receivers to elevate his game in year two. Minshew will have to improve upon a 60.6% completion percentage if this team has any chance to finish better than 26th in the league in scoring. Perhaps the lone bright spot in a dismal 2019 was an offense that finished with 106.8 rushing yards per game, but that was good for just 17th in the league. If they can improve upon those numbers, it will help keep their 24th-ranked defense off the field more.
With a front office that appears keen on a complete rebuild and a team that appears to have the inside track for the No. 1 overall draft pick, do not place any exact order of finish wagers without the Jaguars slotted in fourth place.
The Texans should Finish Right Above the Jaguars
Perhaps no team made a more puzzling offseason move than the Texans, who traded away young wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins in exchange for Cardinals running back David Johnson. It would be one thing if Hopkins was an injury-prone receiver who had trouble staying on the field, but he has played in 110 of a possible 112 games thus far in his career. One of those missed starts was last year in Week 17 when the Texans had nothing to play for.
Without Hopkins, Houston’s wide receiving corps leaves a lot to be desired. Will Fuller cannot stay healthy, Randall Cobb is clearly past his prime and Brandin Cooks is coming off his worst season since he was a rookie. As dynamic of a quarterback as Deshaun Watson is, his upside will be severely limited by this poor supporting cast.
Houston’s defense finished in the bottom half of the league after allowing 24.1 points per game. That mark was just a shade better than their disappointing rival Jaguars who allowed 24.8 PPG. Having defensive end J.J. Watt healthy for more than eight games will help, but even when healthy he was projected for a huge decline in the sack department as he had just four through eight games.
Head coach Bill O’Brien is under a microscope this year as it was his decisions as acting general manager that led to the roster being constructed this way. The Texans open the season at Kansas City, home to Baltimore and at Pittsburgh. If the Texans start 0-3 it could create problems within the locker room that fester all season.
The Debate Between the Colts and Titans
With the bottom of the division squared away, the last debate comes down to who will finish first and second between the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans. Tennessee did a lot after Ryan Tannehill was named the starter last year to warrant our belief that they can continue that success into this season.
Once Tannehill took over for Marcus Mariota, the team and especially the offense took off. Tennessee finished 7-3 in Tannehill’s starts and continued that run with big upsets over New England and Baltimore in the playoffs. Derrick Henry ran like a man possessed, and defenders did not appear all that interested in getting in his way down the stretch. Meanwhile, Tannehill led the league in yards per attempt and yards per completion while also posting a respectable 22:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
The fact that the Colts finished 7-9 given the position they were put in with Andrew Luck’s sudden retirement was awfully impressive. They think they have answered question marks at quarterback after signing veteran Philip Rivers in the offseason. While Rivers certainly projects to be an upgrade over Jacoby Brissett, he is still coming off a year where he threw 20 interceptions. That total was the second-most of his career. In addition, Rivers has to learn a new offense in an offseason where he has limited preparation time and contact with his coaches and teammates.
Therefore, we will pick the “mild upset†and have the Titans finishing first as there is more continuity in key areas from last year’s roster.
Best Bet: Tennessee Titans/Indianapolis Colts/Houston Texans/Jacksonville Jaguars (+400)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.