NFL Futures: AFC West Exact Order of Finish (2020)
If you were to ask the average NFL fan or bettor who will win the AFC West division this year, the resounding answer is likely to be the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are coming off a dominating 2019 season that culminated in the franchise’s second Super Bowl championship. However, to make such a wager, a bettor would have to lay $455 to win $100. Though it is likely to happen, it is not the most fiscally responsible decision.
What if you were told you could still bet the Chiefs to win the division, but still get 7:1 odds in the process? That type of payout is available via the good people at BetMGM as part of an interesting “exact order†prop. If you can identify the exact order a division will finish from first place all the way down to fourth place, you’ll earn a great payout.
Let’s take a look at BetMGM’s odds for the AFC West exact order of finish, and offer our best bet for the upcoming season.
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AFC West Exact Order of Finish (odds courtesy of BetMGM)
We Know Where the Chiefs Will Finish
Every single AFC West exact order of finish wager should have the Kansas City Chiefs in first. Barring an early-season freak injury to quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs should cruise to another division title. That said, there was some buzz when running back Damien Williams opted out of the 2020 season due to health concerns associated with the coronavirus. Williams led the team in rushing last year with 498 yards and a team-best five rushing touchdowns.
However, Kansas City has always been a running back by committee team under Andy Reid, and the drafting of Clyde Edwards-Helaire should ease any concern about Williams’ absence. In addition to Williams, two offensive linemen (Lucas Niang and Laurent Duvernay-Tardif) have also opted out.
Kansas City’s offense should once again be electric in 2020 as they return their top four receivers from a year ago. In addition, their defense returns their top seven leading tacklers and six of their top seven leaders in sacks. The only question surrounding the Chiefs is whether or not there will be a Super Bowl hangover, but that will not prevent them from winning the AFC West.
The Chargers are too Talented Not to Finish Second
I get the fact that Tyrod Taylor is not the sexiest of starting quarterbacks. However, there should be no quarterback controversy. Don’t even think about when rookie Justin Herbert will get on the field because Taylor should have the job wrapped up for the entire year. Taylor is a solid but not spectacular 22-20 as a starter with 51 touchdowns and 16 interceptions, and he led the Buffalo Bills to the playoffs in 2017.
One of the reasons why Chargers fans should be encouraged entering 2020 is that Taylor is everything Philip Rivers was not last year. Rivers could not take care of the ball, as his 20 interceptions were the second-most of his career. In addition, his 23 touchdowns were his fewest in a season since 2007. If Taylor can be counted on to do one thing, it’s to make high-percentage throws and not turn the ball over.
Taylor should complement last year’s sixth-ranked defense nicely. That unit returns mostly intact, and they appear ready to wreak havoc once again. In addition, the Chargers invested a lot in their offensive line in the offseason. They acquired guard Trai Turner from the Panthers and signed former Packers right tackle Bryan Bulaga to a three-year deal. The Chargers will win many games in the trenches, and their defense will be impossible to throw on now that they’ve got Chris Harris Jr.
The Debate Between the Broncos and Raiders
It’s hard not to like what the Denver Broncos have done on offense, and the weapons they have surrounded quarterback Drew Lock with. Between the two-headed monster of Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay at running back and Courtland Sutton paired with rookies Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler on the outside, this is the making of an explosive offense. Or, is it an offense that will need time to gel?
In an offseason where contact with teammates and coaching staffs are limited, teams with young and inexperienced additions will likely find themselves in a bit of a learning curve early. In addition, the loss of starting right tackle Ja’Wuan James cannot be understated.
Instead, give me the Las Vegas Raiders to finish third in a tough AFC West. Las Vegas clearly made defense a priority in the offseason, as they completely revamped their linebacking corps. They added Cory Littleton and Nick Kwiatkoski, two speedy players with good coverage skills. They also upgraded their pass rush with the addition of Carl Nassib. The Raiders did not completely overlook some offensive needs, either, as they signed wide receiver Nelson Agholor and drafted Henry Ruggs.
I love Las Vegas’s addition of quarterback Marcus Mariota, if not for nothing else other than putting starter Derek Carr on notice. Carr’s 70.8% completion percentage and 4,054 yards were the highest of his career. His touchdown-to-interception ratio was much improved from 2018, and he should continue to get more comfortable in coach Jon Gruden’s offense.
Best Bet: Kansas City Chiefs/Los Angeles Chargers/Las Vegas Raiders/Denver Broncos (+500)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.