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NFL Futures: Best Bet to Win AFC South (2020)

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Much more so than in a sport like baseball or hockey, the fate of a bettor’s future wager in football is a lot more unsteady. One injury to a team’s starting quarterback can turn them from a playoff contender to a bottom-five team. Now in 2020, bettors must also weigh in the impact of players opting out over coronavirus concerns. Thus, a major factor for the upcoming NFL season will be who can stay the healthiest — both from a football and COVID-19 perspective.

The AFC South was the most balanced division in 2019, as it was the only division where first place and last place were separated by four or fewer games. The Houston Texans seem to have a stranglehold on the division of late, as they have won four of the last five AFC South championships. Now that they have dealt star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, is the division wide open this year?

In this article, we examine every team’s chances to win the AFC South before picking our best bet of the bunch. While bettors can simply choose the book with the best odds after deciding on a potential winner, let’s get started with the odds listed at FanDuel Sportsbook. You can also check out our consensus odds to win the AFC South here.

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Odds to win 2020 AFC South

Indianapolis Colts (+135)

The Colts were left in a tough spot entering 2019 as quarterback Andrew Luck announced his sudden retirement in the preseason. Though quarterback Jacoby Brissett started 15 games for the Colts in 2017, he clearly was not in their plans to be the starter going forward.

Indianapolis made a big splash in the off-season by signing former Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers to a one-year deal. Indianapolis was many people’s predicted landing spot for Tom Brady. Instead, the Colts signed Rivers before Brady ever made his intentions clear.

Rivers will play behind one of the league’s best offensive lines. The Colts stabilized their offensive line by re-signing left tackle Anthony Castonzo. In addition, they added a huge piece to their defensive line by trading for former 49ers tackle DeForest Buckner. Buckner has totaled 19.5 sacks over the last two years.

The Colts certainly have all the pieces necessary to make a big leap forward in 2020. They finished 7-9 in 2019 despite a number of games missed from key players. To date, only linebacker Skai Moore has opted out of the 2020 season. The biggest factor for them to have a successful year is whether or not Rivers can cut down on his 20 interceptions and improve upon his career low TD% from last season.

Tennessee Titans (+165)

The Tennessee Titans finished the regular season 9-7 last year, needing a win in Week 17 over the Texans to clinch a playoff spot. However, they became the surprise team of the playoffs as they knocked off the Patriots and Ravens on the road in consecutive weeks. The Titans then jumped out to an early 17-7 lead over the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game, only to be outscored 28-7 the rest of the way.

The Titans have had a relatively quiet off-season compared to the rest of the league. Their offense returns mostly intact while linebacker Vic Beasley Jr. is their biggest addition on defense. Beasley led the league in sacks in 2016 and is coming off an eight-sack year last year.

Tennessee showed a ton of commitment to quarterback Ryan Tannehill after he went 9-4 as a starter last year. While Marcus Mariota moved on to the Raiders, Tennessee signed Tannehill to a four-year extension.

Tennessee’s toughest non-divisional games are trips to Baltimore, Green Bay, Minnesota, and Denver. However, going 2-2 or better in those games is certainly not out of the question. To this point, only offensive lineman Anthony McKinney has opted out of the 2020 season.

Houston Texans (+300)

The Houston Texans’ off-season moves have been heavily criticized. In trading away DeAndre Hopkins, they lose a receiver who has played in at least 15 games in all seven years he has been in the league. He has topped 1,100 yards receiving in five on those years and has even led the league in touchdowns once. Given how often other members of the receiving corps get injured, specifically Will Fuller, it makes the move even more puzzling.

In return for Hopkins, the Texans get running back David Johnson and a second-round pick. The Texans and Cardinals also swapped fourth-round picks in the deal. Sandwiched around 2018 when Johnson played in all 16 games, he only played in one game in 2017 and in just nine games last year. Johnson is set to replace Carlos Hyde, who is coming off a 1,070-yard season.

Outside of the Hopkins-Johnson trade, the biggest move for the Texans was signing cornerback Bradley Roby to a three-year contract. He looks to help a defense that finished 28th in yards allowed last year.

Though J.J. Watt missed half of last season with a torn pectoral, the poor defensive numbers are too much to ignore heading into 2020. That coupled with the offense not looking as explosive as year’s past are a recipe for a down year. The Texans get many of their toughest opponents (Baltimore, Green Bay, Minnesota, and New England) at home. However, they also make trips to Kansas City, Pittsburgh, and Chicago.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+2000)

The Jacksonville Jaguars finished a disappointing 6-10 in 2019. The Jaguars must have liked what they saw in the 12 games that rookie Gardner Minshew II started at quarterback, as they traded Nick Foles to the Bears for a fourth-round pick. Minshew threw for 3,721 yards and 21 touchdowns with just six interceptions.

Jacksonville appeared to spend much of the off-season shedding big contracts and creating cap space. The Jaguars traded defensive end Calais Campbell and cornerback A.J. Bouye. They replace them with additions like middle linebacker Joe Schobert and cornerback Darqueze Dennard. In addition, they add Rodney Gunter and Al Woods for depth on their defensive line.

Conclusion

We are able to dismiss two AFC teams’ chances right off the bat in Jacksonville and Houston. Jacksonville’s floor is a team that can be one of the worst in the league, while their ceiling is to hover around .500. The continuity with Minshew at quarterback will help, as will playing six games against beatable divisional opponents. However, a division title seems out of their reach with at least two other formidable contenders to battle it out with. Meanwhile, Houston head coach Bill O’Brien has five winning seasons and four divisional titles in six years with the Texans. However, this year is setting up to be one of his worst given the lack of explosiveness on offense around Deshaun Watson.

This leaves the debate left to decide between the Colts and Titans. We will side with Tennessee for one big reason: stability at the quarterback position. It seems crazy to think we can be so confident in Ryan Tannehill after his seasons in Miami were so rocky. However, we are willing to bet that 2019 was no fluke and is capable of leading the Titans back to more success. Derrick Henry is back and signed, and the Titans will not have as many kinks to work out in training camp as the Colts do given their busier offseason.

I am not a big proponent of any team’s chances who are breaking in a new quarterback this year. With limited opportunities to meet with coaches and throw with their receivers, they are more likely to be behind in their progress to start the season. There is no doubt Colts coach Frank Reich has the football mind to get the best out of Philip Rivers. However, they are not likely to fully hit their stride until later in the season when Tennessee has built enough of a cushion.

PICK: Tennessee Titans to win the AFC South (+165)

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.