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NFL Futures: Best Bet to Win AFC West (2020)

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It is always interesting to look back in time and see how futures wagers played out. Here were the odds from FanDuel Sportsbook as of 5/28/19 for who would win the 2019 AFC West division.

It looks like stealing in hindsight to have only had to risk $165 to win $100 that the Kansas City Chiefs would eventually be crowned AFC West champions. The AFC West was one of two divisions in 2019 to have three of its four members finish under .500. As a result, the Chiefs cruised to a division title which helped paved the way to their franchise’s second Super Bowl championship.

To bet the Chiefs to win the division this year, bettors will have an expensive price tag to pay. However, it may not be a foregone conclusion that they cruise to their fifth straight division title given how improved the rest of their rivals are.

Are there any value plays to be had? In this article, we examine every team’s odds to win the AFC West before deciding on our best bet of the bunch (odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook). You can also check out our consensus odds to win the AFC West here.

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Kansas City Chiefs

Odds to Win AFC West: -390
With moneyline odds of -390, the Kansas City Chiefs have an implied probability of 79.59% to win the division. Thus, bettors should start there and ask themselves if they give the Chiefs an 80% chance or better to win the AFC West.

On paper, there is not much to dislike about Kansas City’s chances as they return a majority of their Super Bowl-winning roster. Their offense should once again be electric as they return their top four receivers. In addition, their defense returns their top seven leading tacklers and six of their top seven leaders in sacks.

That does not mean that the Chiefs did not suffer any significant losses. Their top-two leading rushers are gone as Damien Williams opted out of the season due to coronavirus concerns and LeSean McCoy signed with Tampa Bay. Along with Williams, two offensive linemen (Lucas Niang and Laurent Duvernay-Tardif). In addition, they lost middle linebacker Reggie Ragland to Detroit and cornerback Kendall Fuller to Washington. However, there is optimism that rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire can step right in and handle the bulk of the carries out of the backfield.

Given how explosive their offense is, the defense does not have to be much better than the 17th-ranked defense they were a year ago to have continued success. Perhaps the only questions surrounding the Chiefs is whether or not there will be a Super Bowl hangover, or whether something like the coronavirus will wreak havoc in their locker room in ways no one can predict.

Los Angeles Chargers

Odds to Win AFC West: +700
On one hand, many bettors will struggle to find confidence in the Chargers heading into 2020 since Philip Rivers, who played the last 228 games and 14 seasons under center for the franchise is gone. On the other hand, Chargers backers may be encouraged that his declining arm strength and 20 interceptions from a year ago are in Indianapolis now.

The Chargers could do worse for a “bridge quarterback” than Tyrod Taylor. Taylor is a solid but not spectacular 22-20 as a starter with 51 touchdowns and 16 interceptions and led the Buffalo Bills to the playoffs in 2017. Taylor is everything Philip Rivers was not last year. If he can be counted on to do one thing, it’s to make high-percentage throws and not turn the ball over. Taylor led the league in interception percentage in 2017 and has not thrown more than six interceptions in any season in his three years as a full-time starter.

Taylor should complement last year’s sixth-ranked defense nicely. The Chargers possess perhaps the league’s best edge-rushing duo in Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram III. Their secondary is littered with former Pro Bowlers and is punctuated by the offseason addition of Chris Harris Jr. In addition, the Chargers invested a lot in their offensive line in the offseason. They acquired guard Trai Turner from the Panthers and signed former Packers right tackle Bryan Bulaga to a three-year deal.

Denver Broncos

Odds to Win AFC West: +1100
The Denver Broncos are clearly all-in on second-year quarterback Drew Lock, who went 4-1 in his five starts last year. If they were not sold that Lock can be their quarterback of the future, they would not have surrounded him with so much talent in the offseason. The Broncos cannot argue that they have a shortage of weapons after pairing receiver Courtland Sutton with rookies Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler. In addition, Denver should be able to keep running back Phillip Lindsay’s legs fresh throughout the season now that they can hand the ball to Melvin Gordon 10-15 times a game.

However, head coach Vic Fangio has always been touted as a defensive-minded coach and thus there is no guarantee that he can guide the offense to the next level that it appears it can be on paper. In addition, the pandemic is completely disrupting the way teams can workout and prepare for the upcoming season. Thus, an offense littered with so many young and inexperienced players is likely to be the most affected heading into the season. The future looks bright in Denver, but there is likely to be a learning curve before they find any success.

Las Vegas Raiders

Odds to Win AFC West: +1200
Is a new city and a new beginning enough to have the Raiders franchise improve upon their 7-9 record from a year ago? Las Vegas clearly made defense a priority in the offseason, as they completely revamped their linebacking corps. They added Cory Littleton and Nick Kwiatkoski, two speedy players with good coverage skills. They also upgraded their pass rush with the addition of Carl Nassib. All of these moves should help a defense that finished 19th in total defense and 25th against the pass.

The Raiders did not completely overlook some offensive needs, either, as they signed wide receiver Nelson Agholor and drafted Henry Ruggs. According to the folks at AroundTheNFL, there is reason to believe Derek Carr is ready to take his game to new heights.

However, even the most realistic Raiders fans would be content with a second-place finish in the division and a fight for a playoff berth. To expect that Las Vegas turns it around enough in one short year to challenge the Chiefs is too much to ask.

Who’ll Win The Division?

The Chiefs have won four straight AFC West titles, and there is no reason to think a fifth-straight is not in the cards. Sure, something like an injury to Patrick Mahomes may derail all of the Chief’s expectations. However, no one can predict something like that and if he is healthy they are clearly the class of the division. The only question that remains is whether or not their -390 price tag is worthy of such an investment.

The Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-390)

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.