NFL Futures: Best Bet to Win the Super Bowl (2020)
With the start of the NFL season less than 48 hours away, now is a great time to lock in any futures wagers that you may have been putting off. Of all years to predict a Super Bowl winner, this is shaping up to be one of the hardest. There were no preseason games to scout out teams’ new personnel. In addition, one will never know how COVID-19 may impact a roster both short term and long term.
Nevertheless, we have analyzed all of last years’ data and offseason moves in order to determine which teams are set up for the most success in 2020. After analyzing the odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, we have identified the best value play to win the 2020 Super Bowl.
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Odds to Win the 2020-21 Super Bowl (odds according to FanDuel Sportsbook)
Why the Dallas Cowboys will Win the 2020-21 Super Bowl
Offense
The Dallas Cowboys offense entering 2020 can be summed up in one word: loaded. For all the drama that surrounded quarterback Dak Prescott’s contract, the fact that he will play 2020 under a franchise tag may be the best thing in the short term for the Cowboys. Prescott is essentially betting on himself that he will sign a lucrative long-term deal if he has a big year this year. Thus, Prescott will be seemingly more motivated under these circumstances than if he already had the financial security from a multi-year deal with a ton of guaranteed money.
Running back Ezekiel Elliott still runs behind one of the most dominant offensive lines in the league. He led the league in his first three years in yards per game. Thus, it is laughable to think that his 1,357 rush yards constituted a down year last year.
Perhaps the biggest way the offense improved is how much more dynamic they got in the passing game with adding rookie CeeDee Lamb through the draft. Lamb was considered by many to be the best receiver in the rookie class, who happened to fall to Dallas with the 17th overall pick. Dallas can line Lamb up all over the field and can utilize his unique skill set in the screen game or as a field stretcher to free up Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup on underneath routes.
The Cowboys offense led the league in total yards last year, and finished sixth with 27.1 PPG. We are not the only people who think Dallas’s offense will be loaded in 2020.
Defense
The Cowboys defense was the benefactor of one of the offseason’s biggest moves as former Vikings defensive end Everson Griffen signed a one-year, $6,000,000 deal. The four-time Pro Bowler recorded eight sacks last year and should immediately bolster a pass rush that finished 19th in sacks per game.
Dallas’s linebacker corps is once again stacked as the trio of Leighton Vander Esch, Jaylon Smith and Sean Lee is one of the best trios in the NFL. They were largely responsible for a top-11 rush defense that held opponents to 103.5 rush yards per game.
While the front seven stacks up with the best in the league, the secondary is the weakest part of the defense. On paper they already had their question marks, and now they are dealing with a number of injuries that they hope do not last into the season. Starting safety Xavier Woods left the intrasquad scrimmage with a groin injury. Cornerback Chidobe Awuzie recently tweaked his right leg, and the team just released safety Ha-Ha Clinton Dix.
At this point, all the injuries appear to be minor and no one’s Week 1 status is in question. Optimists will say the Cowboys best defense will be their offense and that the secondary will benefit from opposing offenses getting out of their gameplan by playing catch up all game. In addition, considering the Cowboys were a top-10 pass defense in 2020, it would take a huge drop-off for their secondary to be considered a weak link this year.
Coaching
There will be many bettors who will favor teams with coaching continuity, as the compromised offseason likely made it more difficult for new coaches to instill their system. However, the organization retained offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and new head coach Mike McCarthy is using his familiarity to his advantage.
McCarthy, a former Super Bowl winner has to be considered an instant upgrade over Jason Garrett. His offensive mind should pair well with Dak Prescott’s skill set, and his overall aggressiveness will be seen as a breath of fresh air in JerryWorld compared to the close-to-the-vest style of Garrett.
Conclusion
While the Chiefs and Ravens seemingly have a stranglehold on the AFC, one of the biggest reasons to like the Cowboys chances are the fact that they play in the more wide-open NFC. Breaking it down further, they look the class of their division while the Eagles are dealing with a number of injuries. Throw in the fact that the Cowboys have a good chance to pick up four easy wins against the Giants and Washington, and they have an outside chance at the No. 1 overall seed.
The Cowboys have two ten-win seasons in the last four years. Their 8-8 record last year can be chalked up in large part to bad luck, as they were five games under .500 in one-score games. With better end-of-game management and a likely positive regression in close games, another double-digit win season is well within reach.
The 49ers face the prospect of dealing with a Super Bowl hangover. Aaron Rodgers is coming off one of the worst statistical years of his career, and the Packers front office did nothing to help him in the offseason. The Buccaneers and all their shiny new pieces may take time to gel. Thus, Dallas’s talent stacks up with anyone in the NFC and the entire NFL for that matter.
Best Bet: Dallas Cowboys to Win the Super Bowl (+1500)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.