NFL Futures: Best Bets for AP Comeback Player of the Year (2020)
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Much like the NFL’s Most Valuable Player Award, the AP Comeback Player of the Year Award has mostly gone to quarterbacks in recent years. Nine of the last 14 Comeback Players of the Year have been quarterbacks.
While one may think the award mostly goes to a player who is coming back from an injury, last year’s winner, Ryan Tannehill, proved otherwise. In 2018, Tannehill played in 11 games for the Dolphins and compiled a 5-6 record. In 2019, Tannehill had a career resurgence with the Titans. He started ten games and went 7-3 while having his best touchdown-to-interception ratio. Also, Tannehill led the league in yards per attempt and quarterback rating.
This year’s odds for Comeback Player of the Year features an interesting name near the top. FanDuel Sportsbook has tight end Rob Gronkowski as the second-favorite with odds of +300. Gronk is fresh out of retirement and teams up once again with Tom Brady, this time in Tampa Bay. However, Gronkowski is likely to need time adjusting to the new offense. Plus, there are too many mouths to feed in the Buccaneers’ offense to make betting on Gronkowski worthwhile.
Let’s dive deeper into FanDuel’s odds and select our best bets for the 2020 NFL AP Comeback Player of the Year.
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Matthew Stafford (+900)
Getting Matthew Stafford at +900 odds to win the Comeback Player of the Year award is a steal. Unlike Cam Newton, who has shorter odds, Stafford is guaranteed to have a starting job.
Stafford missed eight games last season with fractured bones in his back. Before that injury, Stafford was an “iron man,†never having missed a game in any of his prior eight seasons. In the eight games Stafford played, he had a 3.8:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. That was on pace to be his best ever since becoming a full-time starter.
The Lions got Stafford some help in the second round of the NFL draft with running back D’Andre Swift. Swift was thought by many to be the best running back in the draft. Also, the Lions selected four straight offensive players later in the draft from the middle of the third round to the fifth round.
Based on oddsmakers’ projected win totals, no team is likely to run away with the NFC North division. The Lions have an over/under of 6.5 wins. If Stafford can lead the Lions to seven wins or more while putting up his usual sensational numbers, he has a great chance to take home the Comeback Player of the Year award.
A.J. Green (+900)
I know that nine of the last 14 winners of the Comeback Player of the Year Award have been quarterbacks, but two of the previous four have been wide receivers. In 2016 and 2017, Jordy Nelson and Keenan Allen made it back-to-back receivers to win the award. In 2016, Nelson had 1,257 yards and led the league with 14 touchdowns. Allen had 1,393 and six touchdowns in 2017. Allen’s numbers make me feel better about wagering on A.J. Green as it is not like a wide receiver has to put up insane numbers to get recognition.
Green missed all of 2019 after suffering an ankle injury in training camp. He should instantly go back to being the top option in a new-look Bengals offense, and they’ll have someone other than Andy Dalton under center for the first time since 2011.
It would seem that Green needs at least 1,000 yards to have a serious chance to win the award. That should not be an issue for Green, as he has never posted less than 1,000 yards when playing more than ten games. Although he and rookie quarterback Joe Burrow will likely not have a lot of time in the preseason to get on the same page, expect Burrow to lean on the seven-time Pro Bowler early and often. If Green can stay healthy, he has a great chance to take home the hardware.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.