NFL Futures: Best Quarterback Prop Bets (2021)
As a recreational gambler with a small bankroll, prop bets are among my favorite wagers. Of course, there’s an opportunity cost to tying up funds on futures. With that in mind, I often hunt for lines that incentivize having money tied up. In other words, I avoid short, chalky odds.
Revisiting hunting for lines, line shopping across multiple sportsbooks is integral for getting the most bang for your buck. In fact, one of the forthcoming touted quarterback wagers provides a perfect example of how large the line discrepancies can be at different books.
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Josh Allen (BUF): Most Regular Season Passing Yards +900 at PointsBet, Passing Touchdowns +750 at DraftKings, and MVP +1300 at FanDuel
Allen is coming off of an astonishing third-year breakout. The dual-threat quarterback made huge strides as a passer. According to Pro-Football-Reference, he finished sixth in passing yards per game, with 286.3. Allen did so, despite sitting out the second half of Buffalo’s Week 17 contest.
There’s potential for further growth this year. First, an integral part of Allen’s breakout was a trade for No. 1 receiver Stefon Diggs. The two had instant chemistry, impressive considering the lack of preseason games and the unusual pandemic-impacted offseason.
Second, Allen has the benefit of almost all of the most important parties back in the fold for 2021. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is back, the starting offensive line is still in tow, and the biggest departure is receiver John Brown. Further, Brown played in only nine games and has been replaced by capable veteran Emmanuel Sanders.
Additionally, the team didn’t sink any meaningful resources into their backfield, suggesting they’ll remain an exceptionally pass-happy offense. Adding to the latter point, the Bills passed at the third-highest rate (63%) with an offensive scoring margin between trailing and leading by seven, per Sharp Football Stats.
However, it gets better! The Bills didn’t take their foot off the opponent’s throat when leading by a wide margin. Specifically, when leading by eight points or more, Buffalo tied for the third-highest pass rate (56%), far clear of the league average of 45%. The recipe should put Allen in contention for the passing yardage crown this season.
Additionally, he might make a run at the passing touchdown title, too. Last year, Allen’s 37 passing touchdowns were the fifth-most, and the Bills project to have a high-octane offense again. Further, the Bills had a proclivity to throw near the end zone. Their 52% pass rate five yards or closer to scoring tied for the fifth-highest rate, and their 35 attempts tied for the most with the Packers, according to Sharp Football Stats.
At this point, if you’re convinced to throw a wager on Allen leading the NFL in passing yards and touchdowns, you’d be wise also to get some MVP action on last year’s runner-up. The MVP Award is a quarterback award at this point. The last non-quarterback to win the award was Adrian Peterson in 2012, and the award has been given to a non-quarterback only two more times (2005 and 2006) since 2001.
Also, Allen leading a team that FanDuel Sportsbook lists with a team total of 11 wins is a plus. All 18 quarterbacks (there were co-MVPs in 2003) who’ve won the award in the last 20 years led their respective teams to the playoffs.
Joe Burrow (CIN): Most Regular Season Passing Yards +2500 at DraftKings
Burrow didn’t run roughshod over the NFL in his rookie season. However, he largely hit the ground running, finishing seventh with 268.8 passing yards per game. Unfortunately, his season came to an abrupt end with a torn ACL in the 10th game of the year.
On the plus side, 10 games is a reasonable sample for concluding how the Bengals will play with him at quarterback. The Bengals were on bye in Week 9, meaning the rookie quarterback’s season came to an end in Week 11.
From Week 1 through Week 11, the Bengals were an uptempo, pass-happy offense. They tied for the ninth-fastest pace during that stretch and passed at the highest rate (65%, two percent clear of a tie for the second-highest rate). This is a dreamy combination for Burrow piling up passing yards in bunches.
There are a few other factors working in his favor, too. First, the Bengals replace the washed-up version of 2020 A.J. Green with the fifth pick in the NFL Draft, dynamic rookie receiver, and former LSU running mate, Ja’Marr Chase. Chase led the NCAA in receiving touchdowns (20) and receiving yards (1,780) en route to winning the Fred Biletnikoff Award, awarded to the top NCAA receiver, in 2019 with Burrow throwing him the football. I fully expect the duo to pick up where they left off, making sweet music together in the passing attack.
Second, Cincinnati’s defense is likely to be one of the worst in the NFL after finishing 27th in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) as a defensive unit in 2020, per Football Outsiders. Finally, FanDuel Sportsbook lists the Bengals with a team total of 6.5 wins, suggesting they could be playing catch-up regularly from negative game scripts this season.
Russell Wilson (SEA): Most Regular Season Passing Yards +4400 at FanDuel
Wilson is the quarterback I teased in the intro. He’s the poster-child for the importance of line shopping. PointsBet lists Wilson at +2200 to lead the NFL in passing yards in the regular season, and DraftKings Sportsbook lists him at even shorter odds at +2000. FanDuel Sportsbook has by far the longest odds at twice as long as PointsBet’s odds and 2.2-times as long of odds as DraftKings.
The long odds at FanDuel are enticing even with accounting for head coach Pete Carroll’s love of the running game. For starters, when the team let Russ cook from Week 1 through Week 9 last year, he passed for the fourth-most yards, per StatHead. Though, that doesn’t tell the whole story, as all three quarterbacks ahead of him play one more game, nine games to Wilson’s eight.
Doing some simple math reveals Wilson’s 317.63 passing yards per game was the second-highest mark to Dak Prescott’s 371.2 passing yards per game — in only five games. Of course, Wilson has long been an efficient passer. Nonetheless, it’s encouraging to see him explode for half of a season when unleashed for a high volume of pass attempts.
The wheels came off the bus down the stretch, and the team reverted to a more run-heavy offense to compensate for bad defense. Circumstances allowed them to do so, facing only two teams with a winning record in their last eight games. But what happens if their defense forces them to win shootouts again in 2021?
Perhaps Wilson can maintain his heater for a full season. Having the supremely talented receiver duo of D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett certainly help. The long odds at FanDuel Sportsbook feel too good to pass up sprinkling at least a little something on one of the game’s top quarterbacks leading the way in passing yards in 2021.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.