NFL Futures: Best Rushing Prop Bets (2021)
In case you missed it, you can check out my favorite quarterback prop bets. I’m turning my attention to rushing props today. The featured rushing props are especially robust, with the shortest odds at a still tantalizing +2200.
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Antonio Gibson (WAS): Most Regular Season Rushing Yards +2200 at PointsBet
Gibson made a nearly seamless transition from college receiver to running back as a rookie last year. The conversion is all the more remarkable when considering the pandemic’s impact on the offseason. In addition, he could be just scratching the surface.
He ranked eighth in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) and sixth in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) out of 47 running backs who carried the ball at least 100 times, per Football Outsiders. Pro Football Focus also graded his running favorably, ranking him fifth in their run grade.
Beyond those marks, Gibson demonstrated elite tackle-breaking ability, ranking tied for second among qualified runners in attempts per broken tackle (8.5 Att/Br), per Pro-Football-Reference. Less impressively, he ranked 18th in rushing yards per game (56.8). Still, not a bad showing for a rookie changing positions.
The environment is also important to analyze for his 2021 outlook. For example, according to Sharp Football Stats, the Football Team tied for the seventh-lowest run percentage when the offensive scoring margin was between trailing and leading by seven points. Obviously, that’s suboptimal.
Thankfully, Washington’s up-tempo pace can help offset the run:pass ratio by running more plays. To that end, Washington tied for the fifth-fastest offense pace in 2021 when the scoring margin was between trailing and leading by seven points.
Circling back to their play-type numbers, Gibson’s outlook is greatly enhanced by viewing Washington’s play-calling tendencies when leading by eight or more points. With that scoring margin, Washington ran at the second-highest rate, pounding the rock a whopping 68% of the time, way above the average of 55%.
The Football Team should get significantly better play out of the quarterback position. I’m more bullish on their outlook this year. Also, FanDuel Sportsbook lists their team total at 8.5 wins. Thus, I’m more optimistic about Washington providing Gibson the leads necessary to pile up runs and rushing yards.
Damien Harris (NE): Most Regular Season Rushing Yards +8000 at PointsBet
After carrying the ball only four times in his rookie season of 2019, Harris finally had a chance to ball out last year. He averaged an eye-catching 5.0 yards per rush attempt and narrowly missed the top ten for rushing yards per game, ranking 11th with 69.1.
Digging beyond the traditional stats, Harris shined even brighter. He finished tied for fourth in yards before contact per attempt (3.1) and 13th in attempts per broken tackle (11.4 Att/Br). Football Outsiders credited him for 17th in DYAR and DVOA, which isn’t great but is above-average. Pro Football Focus was more complimentary of his work, though, ranking him third in run grade.
Harris’s 2021 situation looks more favorable, too. The Patriots finished with only seven wins and a negative-27 point differential. The team pumped a ton of money into free agents to overhaul the roster. They also might have tipped their hand in hopes of playing bully ball with their free-agent signings.
New England paid big bucks to two tight ends, Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry, seemingly a concession their base offense will use two tight ends. Using bigger personnel groupings, in theory, should help pave the way and make running life easier for Harris. However, the positives for Harris’s 2021 situation don’t end there.
FanDuel Sportsbook lists the Pats with a team total of nine wins. Even hovering around .500 and avoiding negative game scripts bodes well for Harris carrying the rock with regularity, as the Patriots ran at the second-highest percentage (51%) with a scoring margin between trailing and leading by seven points. Obviously, Cam Newton’s running ability and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels’ willingness to use it had a hand in New England’s rushing percentage ranking. Still, they clearly want to run the ball, and that’s great for Harris.
Additionally, if the Patriots hit the over on their team total and find themselves regularly in a positive game script, Harris can really eat. When leading by eight or more points last year, New England tied for the third-highest rush percentage (67%).
Traditionally, the Patriots have divvied up backfield duties among multiple backs. James White returns as the clear pass-catching option. However, he’s not a threat to Harris’s carries. Rex Burkhead is no longer on the team, and Sony Michel could be a cut or trade candidate if rookie Rhamondre Stevenson shows enough in camp and the preseason. Harris operating as the runaway top ball carrier in the backfield for the Patriots isn’t an outlandish outcome.
All in all, there are enough positives to support sticking a wager on Harris to lead the NFL in regular-season rushing yards at his juicy long odds.
Darrell Henderson (LAR): Most Regular Season Rushing Touchdowns +4000 at DraftKings
Cam Akers is out for the season after tearing his Achilles. The team hasn’t added a meaningful replacement to the running back room since the injury, and Malcolm Brown, who was on the team last year, signed with the Dolphins in free agency. So that leaves Henderson as the top dog.
I suspect the team will add another back before the season. Yet, the addition isn’t necessarily a threat to Henderson’s top billing. Even if the team doesn’t view him as bell-cow back, it’s hard to envision them giving goal-line looks to a scrap-heap addition instead of Henderson.
Henderson wasn’t a slouch carrying the ball inside the five, either. He scored four rushing touchdowns on 11 attempts five yards or closer to scoring, per FantasyPros. Additionally, Brown vacates four rushing touchdowns from inside the five, and Akers leaves behind one. Of course, all of this says nothing of Henderson’s 4.49-second 40-yard dash providing evidence he can scoot, giving him the requisite wheels to score from farther away, too.
Nonetheless, the NFL’s rushing touchdown crown will almost certainly sit atop the head of a player who’s used regularly close to the end zone. That’s potentially good news for Henderson. Head coach and play-caller, Sean McVay, has been at the helm of the Rams since 2017, and the team’s ranks in rushing percentage from five yards or closer to scoring are as follows; tied for 17th in 2017 (56% with a 54% league average), third in 2018 (69% with a 55% league average), fourth in 2019 (66% with a 55% league average), and tied for eighth in 2020 (67% with a 58% league average), per Sharp Football Stats.
McVay’s play-calling tendencies near the end zone are optimal for rushing touchdowns, hence my infatuation with Henderson’s long odds to lead the league in touchdowns. Additionally, the Rams are an offense on the rise, swapping in Matthew Stafford for Jared Goff at quarterback. Still, during Goff’s two best seasons, 2017 and 2018, the Rams finished first in scoring offense and then second. If Stafford can provide reasonable proximity of Goff’s 2017-2018 work, the team could be one of the top-scoring offenses this year.
Looking to FanDuel Sportsbook for guidance from the team’s win total provides optimism, too. The Rams’ team total of 10.5 wins is tied for the fifth-highest total. If the Rams win double-digit games this year, there’s a great chance they’re piling up points. Henderson could have an integral role in their scoring.
To wrap this up, you might be wondering if you should hop on Henderson’s line now or wait to see if they add legitimate competition to the running back room. If they add a physical runner like Adrian Peterson, Henderson’s odds will likely slide, and for a good reason. However, if they don’t, his odds could become shorter. So my preference is to get some action now. Although, I won’t fault others for waiting.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.