NFL Futures Betting: Longshot Odds, Picks & Predictions for Comeback Player of the Year (2022)
The NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award has historically been given to an offensive player. Only one defensive player, SS Eric Berry in 2015, has won the award over the last 14 years.
During that period, 10 of the 14 winners were quarterbacks, including the last four years. This award goes to players who have overcome adversity from the prior season and have the opportunity to outperform expectations.
Typically, this award also goes to the favorites listed on the market. Over the last eight years, no listed player has won at longer odds than +1000 (per sportsoddshistory.com). That said, below are three intriguing options that can buck the trend.
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Best Bets (Over +2000)
Juju Smith-Schuster (+2500 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Juju Smith-Schuster has a great opportunity to get his career back on track with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. After a historically great start to his career, which saw him collect more than 2,300 receiving yards across his first two seasons, Juju has failed to reach 900 yards in the last three seasons. The main factors that attributed to the poor performance were injuries and QB play. QB play will no longer be a factor, and Juju is fully healthy after only playing five regular season games last season due to a shoulder injury.
The Chiefs clearly value Juju, evidenced by the organization’s pursuit of him for two offseasons in a row. With Tyreek Hill’s departure, there is an opportunity to emerge as a top WR target in a high-scoring offense.
Allen Robinson (+2500 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Allen Robinson is another WR with a great opportunity to get his career back on track with a prolific offense. Similar to Juju, Robinson was highly coveted by the Rams. Per Albert Breer of SI.com, “I was selling my f—ing balls off to this guy,†McVay said.
Recent struggles can be pinned to an incompetent Matt-Nagy scheme in Chicago, where Robinson was phased out of a bad Bears offense for unknown reasons. Even when playing, the Bears misused Robinson by running short and intermediate routes.
The current over-under for his receiving yards is 875.5 (per FanDuel Sportsbook). Robinson should have plenty of opportunities to exceed this total as the No. 2 receiver in LA. Before a torn ACL last season, Robert Woods posted 936, 1,134 and 1,219 receiving yards the previous three seasons. If Robinson matched the totals of the player he is replacing, he should be in the running at year-end.
Chris Godwin (+4000 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Coming off a torn ACL, Chris Godwin has a more typical route to claim the award than Juju and Robinson. Godwin has not been placed on the PUP list, making him miss a minimum of four games. Despite not playing more than 14 games in the past three seasons, Godwin averaged close to 1,100 yards. Still only 26 years old, Godwin should be able to pick up where he left off with Tom Brady. +4000 is good value for the No. 2 target on a team with the second-best odds to win the Super Bowl (per DraftKings Sportsbook).
Matthew Freedman’s Best Bets After the 2022 NFL Draft >>
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