Best Longshot Bets for NFL Defensive Player of the Year (2022)
Earlier this month, I wrote about the Best Bets for NFL Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY). In it, I made the case that sacks are the major factor in deciding the race for the NFL’s best defensive player. Now let’s take a look at a few longshot bets of players who I think have a shot at the sack title:
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OLB Von Miller joins a Buffalo Bills defense that was the best in the NFL last season. The Bills were first in points allowed, yards, and yards per play. You know, the important ones. They also led the league in another important stat for the purpose of this DPOY discussion: QB pressure percentage. On a whopping 30.7% of opponents’ dropbacks, the Bills were able to pressure the quarterback. Miller has finished second in the Defensive Player of the Year vote twice in his career. Last season, between his time with the Broncos and Rams, he finished with the third-highest PFF Defensive Grade for edge defenders. If the Bills’ defense dominates as the No. 1 unit in the NFL again and Miller shines in this pressure-heavy system, he could find himself in the DPOY race. 40-to-1 odds on a household name who has seven seasons of double-digit sack totals and is now on the best defense in the NFL sounds pretty enticing.
OLB Rashan Gary is coming off his best season as a pro. After struggling his first two seasons, Gary thrived under new defensive coordinator Joe Barry tallying 9.5 sacks in 2021. He finished tied for fourth in QB pressures with 47, behind the likes of T.J. Watt, Myles Garrett, and Nick Bosa. He also boasts a top-five PFF Pass Rush Grade and overall Defense Grade for edge defenders last season. As a bonus, Green Bay’s schedule serves up several of the worst pass-blocking teams in the league. According to the PFF Pass-Blocking Grade, 10 of their games are against opponents with an offensive line ranked 18th or worse in 2021.
Rashan Gary is a name you may not be familiar with, but his odds for DPOY are creeping up towards the top tier for a reason. The 24-year-old is entering his prime and has demonstrated the ability to get after the quarterback at an elite level.
DE Maxx Crosby is my favorite value bet for the 2022 DPOY. Crosby was named to his first Pro Bowl last season after recording eight sacks and finishing top 10 in QB pressures. Crosby finished second in PFF’s Pass-Rush Grade for edge defenders, sandwiched between Myles Garrett (first) and T.J. Watt (third). Las Vegas added DE Chandler Jones this offseason to rush the passer alongside Crosby, which should cause plenty of headaches for offensive line coaches looking to scheme against this elite pass rush. A fresh defensive scheme under new defensive coordinator Patrick Graham, along with the added help along the defensive line, could free up Crosby for a massive year. If he continues his career trajectory, the 24-year-old could leap to the top of the league in sacks and find himself in the conversation for DPOY.
Best Bet
My best longshot bet for NFL Defensive Player of the Year is Maxx Crosby. Caesars Sportsbook currently has his odds at +4000, which is the longest by quite a large margin. Hop on that while you can.
Matthew Freedman’s Best Bets After the 2022 NFL Draft >>
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