NFL Futures: NFC Over/Under Win Totals for 2019
One of the most intriguing parts of the summer is searching for values in NFL futures bets. My favorite of these is the early-season win totals. At this stage of the year, the totals can be quite conservative, and that’s especially the case now. It is unusual to see no teams projected to win 12 or more games, and there is also a lot of parity at the bottom. In 2018, seven teams won five or fewer games, but in 2019 there are just two teams projected to finish with five or fewer wins. That presents an opportunity for plenty of value prior to injuries and cuts affecting the lines. Let’s look at the NFC over/under win totals to see which ones present good value.
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Arizona Cardinals – 5 wins
Last Season: 3-13
The Cardinals are a hard team to judge because last season was such a mess. The team seemed to quit on their head coach a couple of times, only to then fire it back up a couple of weeks later. They now have a new coach, a new system, and a new QB in Kyler Murray. However, they are in a tough division and have a difficult schedule. I am taking the under because I just cannot see them winning much more than five games, and the early money has increased the under’s value.
Verdict: Under @ +115
Atlanta Falcons – 8.5 wins
Last season: 7-9
The 2018 season was a rough one for the Falcons. Their defense was ravaged by injuries, and their season fell away as the year wore on. They were the fifth-highest scoring team in the NFC but gave up the third-most points. With their defense healthy this season and Dan Quinn calling the plays, they should be due for a bounce-back year. This division is tough, and the early money on the over means the value is not really there, but I would still lean to the over on this line.
Verdict: Lean Over @ -120
Carolina Panthers – 8 wins
Last season: 7-9
There is so much up in the air with this Panthers team. You would think they would sail past eight wins if Cam Newton is healthy. If Newton doesn’t fully recover from offseason shoulder surgery, this could legitimately be a five-win team. Once we get a feel for Newton’s health in preseason camps, this will become a much easier line to judge. For now, steer clear.
Verdict: Stay Away
Chicago Bears – 9.5 wins
Last season: 12-4
All of the early money has been on a Bears regression from their superb 2018 season. The NFC North is a tough division, and all three of the other teams have made strides to improve. However, there is every chance that with Mitchell Trubisky in his second year under Matt Nagy, the offense counters any regression we are likely to see from their shutdown defense. With early money coming on the under, the over has become a superb value at +130.
Verdict: Over @ +130
Dallas Cowboys – 9 wins
Last season: 10-6
It was such a strange season for the Cowboys in 2018, as they almost seemed to drag themselves kicking and screaming to a 10-6 record. A lot of the success came on the back of their defense, but their offense also showed signs of life as the season progressed. Despite a division with two potentially terrible teams, the Cowboys could struggle to reach nine wins with what is quite a tough schedule. They have to travel to play the Saints, Patriots, Eagles, and Bears, as well as hosting the Rams, Packers, Vikings, and Eagles. The early money has been on the under, but at +105 there is still not tremendous value on the over to make it worth betting.
Verdict: Stay Away
Detroit Lions – 6.5 wins
Last season: 6-10
The Lions are such a tough team to judge because they made all the right noises this offseason, but they remain in a difficult position. They are in a division with three talented teams, and they have to host both the Chiefs and Chargers. Interestingly, the early money has been on the over, making the under a nice value at evens. Given that value and a tough schedule, I would look to take the under at 6.5.
Verdict: Under @ Evens
Green Bay Packers – 9 wins
Last season: 6-9-1
The Packers never really got started in 2018. Since the first week when Aaron Rodgers pulled them back against the Bears on one leg, they struggled to create any momentum. This year sees a lot of new faces, including a new coaching staff, and with it will hopefully come with a fresh attitude. The Packers have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL, but they face a road schedule including trips to face the Cowboys, Chiefs, and Chargers. Nine wins feels pretty much spot on given their schedule and division, so this is one to avoid.
Verdict: Stay Away
Los Angeles Rams – 10.5 wins
Last season: 13-3
2018 was an amazing season for the Rams, but they fell short in the Super Bowl. This season will be extremely interesting, as they face a division which should be improved from last season. The offense also slowed down once teams began to figure them out, creating question marks entering 2019. A tougher division could mean they struggle to reach last season’s 13 wins. However, with early money coming in on the under, there is some interesting value on the over at +110 making me lean in that direction.
Verdict: Lean Over @ +110
Minnesota Vikings – 9 wins
Last season: 8-7-1
Eight wins last season was a massive disappointment for a Vikings team that many felt could go a long way. They have looked to improve their offensive line in the offseason, and we could see a strong 2019 if they get solid play out of that group. However, coupled with what should be a competitive division, they have some tough road trips to face opponents such as the Cowboys, Chiefs, and Chargers. Much like with the Packers, nine wins feels about right, so stay away from this line.
Verdict: Stay Away
New Orleans Saints – 10.5 wins
Last season: 13-3
The Saints’ season ended in the cruelest of fashions, and they will look to make it right in 2019. Yet their already tough division should see improvement from all three competitors. They have a difficult schedule, as they face off with the Cowboys, Rams, Bears, and a strong AFC South. Additionally, there were signs of Drew Brees’ arm tiring throughout the season. There is value if you are brave enough to go under, but this is a stay-away for me.
Verdict: Stay Away
New York Giants – 6 wins
Last season: 5-11
There are not many teams in a worse situation than the Giants right now. They let their biggest defensive playmaker, Landon Collins, walk in free agency and then traded away Odell Beckham Jr. They also seemingly refuse to accept that Eli Manning is past his best and will likely ride him for as long as they can this season. There is a very real chance they could pick first overall next season, so the under is a good play here. Early money on the under has decimated any value, but I feel so confident that they will at best win six games for a push that this remains a strong under selection.
Verdict: Strong Under @ -125
Philadelphia Eagles – 10 wins
Last season: 9-7
Constant quarterback questions underlined an Eagles season that never really gained momentum. With Nick Foles gone and Carson Wentz supposedly healthy, 2019 could be a good year for the Eagles. They have a relatively weak division, although they often stumble against those teams, and a favorable schedule which sees many of their toughest matchups at home. Ten wins is a safe floor for this team, especially with the early money coming in on the under and creating value on the over.
Verdict: Over @ +110
San Francisco 49ers – 8 wins
Last season: 4-12
Let’s write last season off for the 49ers. They lost their franchise quarterback early and never found their legs after. With Jimmy Garoppolo expected to be healthy to start the season with some new offensive weapons (Tevin Coleman, Deebo Samuel, Jalen Hurd) in tow, this team could be primed for a big bounce-back in 2019. However, eight wins in a tough division sounds about right, unless the Rams and/or Seahawks struggle. This team is such an unknown that I am staying away from this line.
Verdict: Stay Away
Seattle Seahawks – 8.5 wins
Last season: 10-6
The Seahawks’ season was one of their more forgettable years in recent memory. Multiple times they did just enough to pull out games from nowhere. However, I just spoke about how the 49ers should improve, and that could be a big element here. The Seahawks have a mixed schedule, but there are enough tough games — the Rams twice, as well as the Saints, Steelers, and Eagles — to worry about them hitting the over. And yet I will always struggle to predict a Russell Wilson-led team to finish 8-8 or worse, and therefore, with the early money on the over, the Seahawks do not make for a worthwhile bet right now.
Verdict: Stay Away
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 6.5 wins
Last season: 5-11
Last year marked another disappointing season from a Tampa Bay team loaded with talent. On the positive side, the Buccaneers have a new coach in Bruce Arians, and we saw flashes from Jameis Winston. However, they play one of the worst schedules I have ever seen, and that has me majorly concerned. Not playing at Raymond James Stadium from Weeks 4-9 — they’re the home team for a Week 6 game in London — could leave them suffering down the stretch. This is a line to stay away from, with much of the early money on the under taking away any value.
Verdict: Stay Away
Washington Redskins – 6.5 wins
Last season: 7-9
I still cannot quite believe the Redskins were seemingly running away with the NFC East at one stage last season. That soon fell apart, and they limped to 7-9. This season, with Case Keenum under center, could be extremely tough for a team impacted heavily by Alex Smith’s injury last season. Additionally, they have two strong teams in their division, making the under look most likely to prevail. Much like with the Giants, the early money has been on the under, eroding any value and preventing this from being a strong play.
Verdict: Under @ -125
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Ben Rolfe is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Ben, check out his archive and follow him @benrolfe15.