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NFL Futures Odds & Picks: Best Bet to Win the NFC West (2023)

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The NFC West is a division with a true, well, division. The division’s top two squads are playoff, if not Super Bowl contenders. On the flip side, the bottom two teams could be among the worst in the entire NFL if things go wrong.

The oddsmakers agree with this sentiment, as the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals have odds longer than 10/1 to win the division crown.

Is there a valuable bet to make in this polarizing NFC West division? Here’s my full breakdown.

Check out our consensus odds on all 2023 NFL win totals >>

NFL Futures Odds & Picks: Best Bet to Win the NFC West

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFC West Odds 

  • San Francisco 49ers -160
  • Seattle Seahawks +195
  • Los Angeles Rams 10/1
  • Arizona Cardinals 25/1

The first question when evaluating the NFC West is this: can you really lay this much juice on Brock Purdy? The answer depends on how you feel about the rest of the roster.

The star power is still prevalent in San Francisco on both sides of the ball. But the 49ers lost five pieces from a defense that topped the league in DVOA a season ago. The addition of Javon Hargrave will certainly help keep San Francisco’s pass rush among the best in the league. But the losses of cornerback Emmanuel Moseley and Jimmie Ward leaves questions in the secondary.

Offensively, however, it should mainly be rinse and repeat for the 49ers. Kyle Shanahan will run his patented outside zone running scheme, the passing game will design openings for their bevy of weapons, and the offense has proven numerous times that it’s practically quarterback-proof. It’s hard to imagine things going wrong for a unit with an elite offensive line and weapons like Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk. But San Francisco’s season will likely be defined by whether Purdy takes the next step and proves that Mr. Irrelevant’s breakout year wasn’t a fluke. If Purdy can be as good as the departed Jimmy Garoppolo, the 49ers will have Super Bowl aspirations even if the defense takes a step back. 

After stunning the league in 2022, the Seahawks were by far the most improved team in this division. The Seahawks were active spenders in free agency, bringing back linebacker Bobby Wagner as well as linebacker Dre’Mont Jones. Seattle also fortified a subpar offensive line by signing center Evan Brown.

But Seattle’s greatest improvements came through the draft. They landed the draft’s top cornerback prospect in Devon Witherspoon to pair with Tariq Woolen, who made the Pro Bowl as a rookie. They followed that up by taking Jaxon Smith-Njigba, one of the draft’s most exciting prospects, to join a receiving group that features D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

But like their rival, this season will likely come down to the quarterback. Was Geno Smith’s 2022 season a complete accident? If Smith puts on a strong encore, then Seattle should be in consideration to win a thin NFC. 

The Los Angeles Rams completely bottomed out after going all out to win the Super Bowl the previous year. And 2023 feels like it’ll be more resemblant of last year’s disaster than their magical Super Bowl campaign.

Los Angeles has the star power in Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald, and Sean McVay hasn’t called it quits just yet. But Stafford’s best days (and health) appear behind him. Kupp is already sidelined with a hamstring injury. And worst of all, the Rams have virtually no depth behind any of those star players, especially on defense.

The cap-strapped Rams seem to recognize this, which is why they went with a full-on youth movement this offseason. The Rams had practically no money to spend in free agency. However, they made 14 picks during the second and third days of the draft in an attempt to replenish the roster.

While a healthy Stafford and Kupp could get the L.A. offense back to respectability, the Rams defense could be the league’s worst unit in 2023. Outside of Donald, the rest of this unit is completely unheralded and unproven. Opponents would be foolish not to double-team Donald on practically every play. Los Angeles doesn’t have enough depth on both sides of the ball to warrant a bet even at these lofty odds. 

Last, and perhaps least, are the Arizona Cardinals, a team that seems completely content with throwing away the season. New head coach Jonathan Gannon brings a defensive background and will have his work cut out for him with this unit. The Cardinals let their top two defensive free agents walk this offseason and did very little to bolster the unit.

The most notable moment of Arizona’s offseason was acquiring Houston’s first-round pick in 2024, then moving back up in the draft to take Ohio State tackle Paris Johnson, who has the talent to be a franchise left tackle. Quarterback Kyler Murray likely won’t be ready for the start of the 2023 campaign, meaning either Colt McCoy or rookie Clayton Tune will start the season under center. Whoever starts will have a decent group to work with in Marquise Brown, James Conner and Zach Ertz. But the Cardinals’ offensive line was among the worst in both pass and run blocking a season ago.

Arizona is likely punting the 2023 season. And with so much youth on defense, the Cardinals aren’t worth a wager even at these insane odds. 

Best Bet to Win the NFC West: Seattle Seahawks (+195 on DraftKings)

If you’re asking me who has the best roster in the NFC West, I’m going with San Francisco. But I don’t think Seattle’s roster is that far off. And when you consider that both teams’ seasons are hinging upon quarterback play, I’ll take the team that’s nearly 2/1 over the team that’s better, but not much better, at a steeper price.

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