NFL Futures Odds & Picks: Best Bet to Win the NFC South

We continue our divisional betting preview with a look at one of the most wide-open divisions in the entire NFL: the NFC South.

The Buccaneers won this division last season in ugly fashion. With Tom Brady officially retired, the Buccs are at serious risk of seeing their two-year division title streak come to a close. The question is, who can overtake them?

The Saints enter the summer as the odds-on favorites after replacing Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton with Derek Carr under center. The upstart Falcons are getting some buzz but have significant questions at quarterback and on defense. While the Panthers aren’t a bad team on paper, there could be some growing pains at QB for No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young.

So, which team presents the best value to win the NFC South?

Best Bet to Win the NFC South

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFC South Odds

New Orleans Saints

The widely held assumption is that Carr’s arrival will stabilize this New Orleans offense and get it over the hump. That’s partially correct. Carr certainly gives the Saints offense a higher floor. However, his conservative nature might limit this unit’s upside. Plus, Carr’s coming off a rough 2022 season in which he made just 21 big-time throws and 19 turnover-worthy throws in Las Vegas.

The Saints also have some serious questions regarding their two long-time playmakers. Alvin Kamara could be facing suspension for an incident at the 2022 Pro Bowl, and receiver Michael Thomas hasn’t been able to stay on the field the last few years.

New Orleans has to be better than 22nd in offensive DVOA if it’s to win the division. A leap from second-year wideout Chris Olave, combined with contributions from Jamaal Williams and rookie Kendre Miller in the ground game will go a long way. But this unit is thin on playmakers beyond the mainstays.

Defensively, a unit that ranked eighth in DVOA will undergo a transition along the front seven. Gone are Marcus Davenport, Shy Tuttle and David Onyemata. Replacing them are Nathan Shepherd, Khalen Saunders and rookies Bryan Bresee and Isaiah Foskey, two defensive linemen with high ceilings but need development at the next level.

The Saints should be a solid team that stays in most games this season, but it’s tough to justify a Carr-led team at nearly even-money.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have been a popular public darling to take home this division. And the love for Atlanta makes sense, although this isn’t a team that historically hasn’t rewarded bettors in the past.

Despite lousy quarterback play from Marcus Mariota for most of the year, the Falcons offense ranked 13th in DVOA. Much of that had to do with a dynamic ground game that ranked third in DVOA. Now, the Falcons welcome Bijan Robinson to the backfield, and the Texas product is widely regarded as one of the best tailback prospects in years. Robinson could thrive in coach Arthur Smith’s outside-zone run scheme.

Robinson joins an exciting young core featuring Kyle Pitts and Drake London. Atlanta also returns a strong offensive line that finished top 12 in both run and pass blocking. But the success of this unit will hinge upon second-year QB Desmond Ridder, who saw some action in relief of Mariota toward the end of the year. Ridder went 2-2 as a starter and completed 63.5% of his throws for 708 yards and two touchdowns.

Ridder’s development will be one of the most intriguing storylines within this division. If he can command the respect of opposing defenses, then Atlanta’s offense could be awfully fun to watch.

Defensively is where Atlanta needs to show the most improvement. The Falcons ranked 29th in DVOA and were atrocious against the pass. Atlanta spent much of its offseason addressing the defense, adding a playmaker in the secondary in Jessie Bates, then splurging along the defensive line by adding Calais Campbell, Eddie Goldman and Onyemata. With better health from star cornerback A.J. Terrell, Atlanta’s defense could improve significantly in 2023.

There’s plenty to be excited about in Atlanta, but its division hopes likely stem upon how big of a leap Ridder takes in his second season.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers enter the season with a new quarterback, new head coach and some intrigue. The Panthers went big and traded up to draft Bryce Young, but they didn’t surround him with a whole heck of a lot. Carolina dealt star receiver D.J. Moore in the trade for the first overall pick, and Young’s wide receiving group will feature veterans Adam Thielen and DJ Chark, as well as unproven youngsters Terrace Marshall and Jonathan Mingo, who has some Deebo Samuel traits.

The Panthers offense will likely rely heavily on newly-acquired tailback Miles Sanders and an offensive line that ranked ninth in adjusted line yards.

Carolina has some pieces on the defense in edge rusher Brian Burns, defensive lineman Derrick Brown and cornerback Jaycee Horn. They added safety Vonn Bell via free agency to bolster the weakest level of the defense. But Carolina still has too many holes and a lack of depth to make a sizable leap under new coordinator Ejiro Evero.

The Panthers have talent and hope, but 2023 will likely be more about Young’s development than a playoff chase. Carolina could be a scrappy dog to back this season, however.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

As for Tampa Bay, they feel like too long of a shot at 8/1 odds in such an uncertain division. However, I understand why the proposition of backing either Baker Mayfield or 2021 second-round pick Kyle Trask sounds like lighting money on fire.

The point is, the Buccaneers have a plenty competent roster and a talented defense that returns free agents Jamel Dean and Lavonte David. And whoever’s throwing the ball will have Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to work with. And while Tampa’s offensive line was much maligned a year ago, the Buccaneers actually gave up the fewest sacks in the league in 2022. Part of that was Tom Brady’s ability to get the ball out quick. But this unit could improve with better health.

A Buccaneers defense that ranked 13th in DVOA this season remains pretty much intact. First-round pick Calijah Kancey could help create a formidable duo up the middle of the line with run plugger Vita Vea once he returns from a calf injury suffered in camp. And the back seven returns plenty of mainstays from the Super Bowl winning roster.

The Buccaneers feel a bit disrespected by the market, which will happen when the greatest quarterback of all-time says goodbye. They have a defense that can keep them in games. The question is whether their quarterback can do his part.

Best Bet to Win the NFC South: Atlanta Falcons +215

This division feels like a total crapshoot, and I can see scenarios in which each of these four teams take the crown. I’ll ultimately roll with a Falcons team that feels destined for a breakout campaign.

The Falcons have the young playmakers. They have a sturdy offensive line. And, their defense should improve after an active offseason. If Ridder can be a serviceable game manager, the Falcons have enough upside to make the postseason.