NFL Futures Betting: Longshot Odds, Picks & Predictions for Conference Winners (2022)
The NFL season is swiftly approaching. It feels as though every couple of seasons, a preseason long-shot wins their conference. Just last September, the Cincinnati Bengals were sitting at +8000 to win the AFC. Fast forward six months later, and the Bengals were playing in the Super Bowl. In the last seven seasons, we've seen the Bengals (+8000), 49ers (+2000), Eagles (+2000), Falcons (+4000) and Panthers (+3000) all make the Super Bowl in their respective seasons at +2000 odds or higher.
Here are my long-shot bets to win the NFL Conference Championships.
(Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Indianapolis Colts to win the AFC Conference (+1200)
The end of last season was a nightmare for the Indianapolis Colts after they failed to make the playoffs because of a loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars as 15-point favorites. Indianapolis finished 9-8 in 2021, but they were 0-3 in games decided by a field goal or less. These close game finishes are due for positive regression come 2022. Additionally, the Colts made a noticeable offseason upgrade at the quarterback position by acquiring Matt Ryan and trading away Carson Wentz. Ryan is a more accurate passer than Wentz, posting a 67% completion rate in 2021, 4.6% higher than Wentz.
This improved accuracy should add to the progression of young breakout wide receiver Michael Pittman, who posted 88/1082/6 in his sophomore season. On top of the major offensive upgrade, the Colts will face the third easiest strength of schedule based on Vegas win totals. An easier schedule coupled with a quarterback upgrade should lead to the Colts reclaiming the AFC South and give them a fighting chance to win the AFC Conference.
Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC Conference (+1800)
The Minnesota Vikings experienced an underwhelming season last year with an 8-9 finish. Over the offseason, Minnesota’s biggest change was at the head coaching position. They rid themselves of the hard-nosed Mike Zimmer in exchange for the flashy first-time head coach, Kevin O'Connell. After ranking 17th in offensive efficiency, the Vikings are primed for positive regression on offense.
In 2021, the Vikings ranked 14th in points per game with 25.0, while Kevin O'Connell's former team, the Los Angeles Rams, ranked eighth with 27.1. Furthermore, the Rams were tied for third in the NFL in yards per play last season at 6.0. If reports out of training camp are true, we should see young star wide receiver Justin Jefferson experience "Cooper Kupp-esque" usage. Primetime-fearing Kirk Cousins also had a great season in 2021 with 4,221/33/7 and a career-low 1.2% interception rate. With O'Connell running Minnesota's already-talented offense, the Vikings have a shot at representing the NFC in the Super Bowl.
Miami Dolphins to win the AFC Conference (+2200)
Miami made a splash this offseason, adding Tyreek Hill in a massive trade and other offensive weapons like Chase Edmonds and Cedrick Wilson Jr. Last season, the Miami Dolphins ranked 22nd in points per game at just 20.1. However, the Dolphins hired former 49ers offensive coordinator, Mike McDaniel, to help remedy last year's struggling offense. McDaniel will look to improve on those 20.1 points per game with the help of the newly-added offensive weapons, plus improved protection from Terron Armstead.
Furthermore, McDaniel's 49ers led the NFL in yards per play with 6.1 last season, while the Dolphins ranked 29th with 4.8. With an offense comparable to or even better than the 2021 49ers, the Dolphins should have no trouble improving this season. Although they missed the playoffs at 9-8 last season, they managed to end the season on an 8-1 run, making them a top wild card candidate going into this season. If Miami can claim a spot in the playoffs, expect them to make some noise.
Las Vegas Raiders to win the AFC Conference (+2000)
Last season was nothing short of a hot mess for the Las Vegas Raiders from Jon Gruden to Henry Ruggs. Yet, somehow the Raiders found themselves at 10-7, in the playoffs and nine yards away from overtime against the eventual AFC Champions. During this offseason, the Raiders' front office wanted to build on their unlikely success from 2021. Las Vegas traded for arguably the best wide receiver in the league, Davante Adams, and signed former Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels as their head coach.
In his first head coaching job since 2010, McDaniels will look to enhance an offense that only scored 22.0 points per game (18th) last season. The focal point of this improvement will be the addition of Adams, a former college teammate of Derek Carr. The pair tore it up at Fresno State for 233/3,031/38 in just 26 games across two seasons. If this past chemistry successfully translates to the NFL, the Raiders' offense could be a force to be reckoned with. Not to mention, the defense will surely improve from 25.8 points per game allowed (26th) by adding Chandler Jones to line up opposite Maxx Crosby. Las Vegas has made the moves to compete this season, so don't be surprised if they make a run in January.
Matthew Freedman's Best Bets After the 2022 NFL Draft >>
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