NFL Futures: What are the Best AFC South Futures Bets?

NFL futures bets are red-hot now that the league’s regular-season schedule has been released – and there are no shortage of intriguing win totals and player prop options for the AFC South. Our betting experts share their favorite plays within the division (odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook; odds may vary between sportsbooks).

Check out our complete list of team win totals and Super Bowl odds here >>

Q1. Which AFC South wins total is the most intriguing play in 2020?

The Colts OVER 8.5 wins (-160) seems like easy money. This team had its starting quarterback retire less than a month before the season, lost its top receiver throughout different points of the season, and lost its top linebacker for three games. Still, they finished 7-9 in 2019. This is one of the weakest divisions in football with the Jaguars and Texans both being candidates for under six wins. The additions of Philip Rivers (who knows Frank Reich’s offense), Jonathan Taylor, and Michael Pittman are more than enough to get them to a minimum of nine wins.
– Mike Tagliere (@MikeTagliereNFL)

Although I liked the over on the Colts when their win total was at 8.5, OVER 9 wins (-110) is still my favorite play. The Colts have substantially improved in my opinion since last year, when they managed to go 7-9. Philip Rivers looked done in the second half of last year, but I attribute that more to his porous offensive line (34 sacks, 36% pressure rate) than him suddenly falling off a cliff entirely. He should be much better behind one of the best offensive lines in football. The additions of Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr. should further help the offense, and the defense should continue to be solid, particularly with the addition of DeForest Buckner. They have plenty of winnable games outside their division (the Jets, Bengals, Lions, etc.), and I think they’re going to have an incredibly impressive season. It’s tough to get to 10 wins in the NFL but the Colts should be one of the best teams in the AFC.
– Dan Harris (@danharris80)

I’m taking three teams in this division for the under in wins and the reason is that the Titans are going to run away with the AFC South. I’ll be putting a large sum of my own money down on Tennessee OVER 8.5 wins (-110) because they have the single most complete roster in the NFL. Everyone is worried about the quarterback position, but Tannehill was absolutely remarkable last year, posting a top-five all-time AY/A for a QB with at least 10 starts. He had 1.09 more yards per attempt than any other QB over those 10 starts which is a larger difference than Tom Brady’s career and Trent Dilfers. It is twice the difference between Drew Brees and Andy Dalton or Peyton Manning and Jay Cutler. To put it plainly, Tannehill is just as good as the rest of his great team.
– Bobby Sylvester (@bobbyfantasypro)

For me, it’s the Tennessee Titans OVER 8.5 wins (-110). This team is built upon running the ball, controlling the clock, and winning with good defense. They saw very little turnover on the offensive side of the ball (outside of losing Jack Conklin) and Derrick Henry is returning. They have a tough schedule, but if everyone stays healthy, this team should land above that high 8.5 wins mark.
– Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL)

Even though their original line was O/U 8.5 wins, give me the Houston Texans UNDER the current projection of 7.5 (-120). The Texans have a possible 0-3 start staring them right in the face with their opener at Kansas City, home to Baltimore and at Pittsburgh. The mood for many players is sour entering the season when the front office traded away DeAndre Hopkins. If Houston stumbles out of the gate, their struggles combined with disgruntled players makes for a long season.
– Mike Spector (@MikeSpector01)

Check out our complete list of 2020 player prop bets here >>

Q2. Which AFC South player prop are you highest on at the moment?

There aren’t many props I’m in love with from the AFC South, but if I were forced to pick one, it’d be the OVER on Derrick Henry’s 1,509.5 total yards (-112). He’s the centerpiece of this offense, and after accepting the franchise tag, he’ll be playing for another contract in 2020. The Titans added Darrynton Evans to the backfield, and while I like him as a player, he’s the much lesser portion of a timeshare, similar to what Dion Lewis has been the last two years. Even giving the Titans a bump in pass attempts (and not many going to Henry), he comes in at 1,608 total yards in my projections. That allows him to miss a game and still have a good shot to hit the over.
– Mike Tagliere (@MikeTagliereNFL)

Going along with my bullish outlook for the Colts, I really like the OVER on 4099.5 passing yards for Philip Rivers (-112). Over his last 12 seasons, Rivers has surpassed that numbers in every year but one, and usually by several hundred passing yards. He’ll now play for Frank Reich, under whose system Rivers succeeded in the past. In 2015 with Reich as his offensive coordinator, Rivers threw for a career-best 4,792 yards. With a fantastic offensive line and plenty of weapons, Rivers should easily clear this mark if he stays healthy.
– Dan Harris (@danharris80)

Give me Ryan Tannehill OVER 22.5 touchdowns (-112) all day long! Before Adam Gase came to Miami, Tannehill was 3rd all-time in passing yards (for the first four seasons of a career) and top ten in touchdowns despite lackluster weapons and a horrendous offensive line. He played hurt and in the slowest paced offense the following two seasons before finding his way into the starting job last season with the Titans. After he took over, the Titans scored 30 points per game over 10 games. He was the single most efficient quarterback in football from the moment he took over, tossing 22 TDs in just 286 pass attempts.
– Bobby Sylvester (@bobbyfantasypro)

Unfortunately, there aren’t any that I feel confident going all in for in 2020. I believe Rivers’ best days are behind him and the line set for Derrick Henry is just a bit too high for me to feel confident in going after it.
– Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL)

Recent trends say Derrick Henry is likely to go UNDER his projected 1509.5 rushing and receiving yards (-112) this year. Last year, Henry led the league with 1,540 rushing yards and added 206 yards through the air. However, recent rushing champions have a far worse year the next year. Ezekiel Elliott’s rushing total went down by an average of 362.5 yards in the two seasons after his rushing titles. Le’Veon Bell went from rushing champion to a holdout. Adrian Peterson went from 1,485 yards to 72 the next year. Demarco Murray produced less than half the amount of yards the year after his rushing title. Some of these are due to injuries and some to contract disputes, but regardless of the reason I will follow the trends and project Henry UNDER his projected total.
– Mike Spector (@MikeSpector01)

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