NFL Futures: Will the Cleveland Browns Make the Playoffs? (2020)
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Starting this season, the NFL playoffs will have a slightly new look. A third wild card team will be added to each conference, bringing the total amount of playoff teams to 14.
With 44% of teams making the playoffs, there is some good value to be found in teams’ playoff odds.
FanDuel Sportsbook has set odds to make or miss the playoffs for all 32 NFL teams. We have identified our best value plays based on these odds, and will release them as part of a five-part series throughout the month.
The second part of our series focuses on why the Cleveland Browns will miss the playoffs.
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Will the Cleveland Browns Make the Playoffs?
YES +108, NO -130 (odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Their Division is Brutal
Given that teams play 37.5% of their games against division rivals, one should always analyze a team’s division when assessing their outlook. The AFC North features the best team from the regular season one year ago. Lamar Jackson broke out in year two, leading the Baltimore Ravens to a 14-2 record and winning the MVP award. The Ravens appear just as strong, if not better than last year. They had arguably the best draft, adding playmakers on both sides of the ball. In addition, their trade for defensive end Calais Campbell makes a defense that finished fourth overall last year even stronger.
The Pittsburgh Steelers finished a disappointing 8-8 last year. However, optimism is abound considering that quarterback Ben Roethlisberger missed the final 14 games last season. The Steelers were in the wild card race until the last week of the season despite playing the majority of the year with Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges under center. In fact, if this year’s new playoff format was started last year, the Steelers would have earned the seventh playoff spot. Pittsburgh’s defense kept them in many games and finished fifth in total defense and sixth in points per game allowed.
Though the Cincinnati Bengals won just two games last year, even they project to be better with rookie Joe Burrow under center instead of Ryan Finley. Star wide receiver A.J. Green is back and healthy, and running back Joe Mixon looks to finish in the top ten in rushing yet again.
If their divisional games were not tough enough, Cleveland makes trips to Dallas and Tennessee this year. They also face tough home games against Philadelphia, Indianapolis and Houston.
Baker Mayfield Does Not Instill Confidence
In his first two years in the league, quarterback Baker Mayfield has not had a shortage of weapons. Running back Nick Chubb finished second in rushing last year. Wide receiver Jarvis Landry also finished top ten in receiving. However, Mayfield could not seem to get on the same page with Odell Beckham Jr. in their first year together. Aside from 2017 when he played just two games, Beckham Jr. finished with career lows in yardage (1,035) and touchdowns (4).
Baker Mayfield is just 12-17 as a starter. Despite all the weapons surrounding him last year, he actually digressed in year two. His completion percentage and touchdowns were down, while his interceptions increased from 14 to 21. Those 21 interceptions were second in the league to Jameis Winston’s 30, while his completion percentage was second-worst in the league.
Cleveland’s front office must have assessed that some of Mayfield’s problems were attributed to poor offensive line play. The Browns added former All-Pro tackle Jack Conklin and selected offensive tackle Jerick Wills from Alabama with the tenth overall pick in the draft. However, Cleveland’s offensive line could not have been that bad if they paved the way for the league’s second-ranked rusher. I am of the belief that Mayfield will never ascend to what the Browns expected of him when they selected him first overall.
They are Still the Cleveland Browns
Unfortunately for fans of the Cleveland Browns, their franchise is synonymous with adjectives like underachieving and dysfunctional. After going 6-10 in 2019, the Browns have found themselves in the record books for all the long reasons. They matched the Buffalo Bills recent mark with a 17-year playoff drought.
Head coach Freddie Kitchens was clearly not the answer, and the front office let him go after one short year. New head coach Kevin Stefanski is Cleveland’s seventh head coach in the last decade. Stefanski has never been a head coach before and now must instill his system in an off-season that is likely to be heavily impacted by the pandemic.
On paper, the Browns are an extremely talented football team. However, there is also something to be said for team chemistry in a sport like a football. That is where the Browns lack. Cleveland has too many big personalities to mesh into a cohesive football team. They are still the Cleveland Browns, and their playoff drought is likely to extend another year.
PICK: No, Cleveland Browns will miss the playoffs (-130 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.