NFL Futures: Will the Los Angeles Chargers Make the Playoffs? (2020)
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Starting this season, the NFL playoffs will have a slightly new look. A third wild-card team will be added to each conference, bringing the total amount of playoff teams to 14.
With 44% of teams making the playoffs, there is some good value to find in teams’ playoff odds.
FanDuel Sportsbook has set odds to make or miss the playoffs for all 32 NFL teams. We have identified our best value plays based on these odds and will release them as part of a five-part series throughout the month.
The third part of this series focuses on why the Los Angeles Chargers will make the playoffs.
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Will the Los Angeles Chargers Make the Playoffs?
YES +148, NO -182 (odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Philip Rivers is Gone
This seems like an odd place to start, right? Philip Rivers is gone, and that is the first reason why the Chargers will make the playoffs?
Sure, Los Angeles went 5-11 last year as arguably the most disappointing AFC team relative to its preseason outlook. However, Rivers was a big part of that 5-11 record. His 1.15:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio was easily the worst of his career. His 20 interceptions tied for the second-most of his career and just one shy of his 21 picks that led the league in 2016. Not surprisingly, the Chargers also finished 5-11 that year.
Thus, the Chargers have gone 5-11 in two of the last four years. Their records in the other two years? 9-7 in 2017 and 12-4 in 2018. Rivers threw just 10 and 12 interceptions in those seasons, respectively.
I harp on Rivers’ turnovers so much because his replacement hardly ever turns the ball over. In three full seasons as Buffalo’s starting quarterback, Tyrod Taylor never threw more than six interceptions in a season. When he led the Bills to the playoffs in 2017, Taylor’s 1.0 interception percentage (percentage of times intercepted when attempting to pass) led the league.
It will not be easy to replace a quarterback who has been under center for the franchise since 2003. However, Taylor’s skill set is perfect for this team, and he comes at the perfect time. Taylor is a respectable 23-21-1 as a starter. If he can continue to play safe, complementary football, the Chargers have excellent pieces around him to make a playoff push.
The Chargers Had a Tremendous Offseason
The Chargers, by most accounts, had one of the most successful offseasons. Though they lost Russell Okung from the offensive line, they replaced him with two standout veterans. Five-time Pro Bowler Trai Turner, considered one of the NFL’s best offensive guards, comes over from the Carolina Panthers. In addition, the Chargers added right tackle Bryan Bulaga. Every year since 2014, Bulaga has ranked in the top 10 for right tackles in Pro Football Focus’s pass-blocking grades. In three of those years, he finished in the top three.
With the tandem of Turner and Bulaga anchoring the right side of the line, look for Taylor to receive great protection and for big holes to be opened up in head coach Anthony Lynn’s run-first offense. Sure, the Chargers lost running back Melvin Gordon. But the front office was inspired by Austin Ekeler’s production and feel that Justin Jackson can be a nice complementary back. It will be interesting to see if the threat of Taylor’s legs brings a newly added explosiveness to this running attack.
Outside of beefing up the offensive line, the Chargers got better on defense. They added defensive tackle Linval Joseph to provide depth on the interior after the departure of Brandon Mebane. Joseph is one of the league’s best run-stoppers and brings a much-needed veteran presence to the locker room.
Perhaps Los Angeles’s biggest offseason move was the signing of cornerback Chris Harris Jr. The four-time Pro Bowler and former All-Pro significantly upgrades a pass defense that was one of the league’s worst in defending slot receivers.
The Defense Could be the League’s Best
When referring to an elite defense, the phrase “they have playmakers at every level†is common. That phrase fits the Chargers defense to a tee. Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram III are perhaps the league’s best defensive end duo. Both made the Pro Bowl in 2019 after combining for 18.5 sacks.
At linebacker, the Chargers got one of the biggest steals of the first round when Oklahoma’s Kenneth Murray fell to them with the 23rd pick. He joins Denzel Perryman and Drue Tranquill, who both excel at both stopping the run and pass.
Perhaps the Chargers’ biggest strength on defense is their secondary. Harris Jr., Derwin James, and Casey Hayward Jr. have combined for seven Pro Bowls. In addition, both Harris Jr. and James are former All-Pros. Teams are going to have an awfully difficult time moving the ball through the air against the Chargers.
Los Angeles had the league’s sixth-best defense in 2019, which is even more impressive considering they went 5-11.
The Schedule has Many Soft Spots
Taylor has time to adjust to a new scheme, as two of the Chargers’ first three games are against some of the league’s worst teams. Los Angeles plays at Cincinnati in Week 1 while hosting the rebuilding Carolina Panthers in Week 3. In addition, the Chargers should be favored in games against the Jets, Dolphins, Jaguars, and Falcons.
The rest of their AFC West opponents did a lot to get better in the offseason. However, outside of the Chiefs, none of the Chargers’ rivals possess their upside. If Los Angeles can manage at least a 4-2 record against the division, the rest of the schedule is soft enough to accrue enough wins for a playoff spot. At plus odds, the Chargers represent tremendous value to make the playoffs.
PICK: Yes, Los Angeles Chargers will make the playoffs (+148 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.