NFL Futures: Will the Los Angeles Rams Make the Playoffs? (2020)
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Starting this season, the NFL playoffs will have a slightly new look. A third wild card team will be added to each conference, bringing the total amount of playoff teams to 14.
With 44% of teams making the playoffs, there is some good value to be found in teams’ playoff odds.
FanDuel Sportsbook has set odds to make or miss the playoffs for all 32 NFL teams. We have identified our best value plays based on these odds, and have been releasing them as part of a five-part series throughout the month.
The fourth part of our series focuses on why the Los Angeles Rams will miss the playoffs.
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Will the Los Angeles Rams Make the Playoffs?
YES +130, NO -160 (odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Their Division is Loaded with Playoff Contenders
Given that teams play 37.5% of their games against division rivals, one should always analyze a team’s division when assessing their outlook. The NFC West features two of the best teams from the conference a year ago. The San Francisco 49ers won the division on the last game of the season, then rolled through the NFC playoffs. They had a 10-point lead on the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, but Kansas City scored 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to win 31-20. The Seattle Seahawks also won a playoff game last year after finishing the regular season 11-5.
Therefore, the NFC West was the only division to feature two 11-win teams and three teams over .500.
The division’s last-place Arizona Cardinals finished a respectable 5-10-1 in head coach Kliff Kingsbury and quarterback Kyler Murray’s first years. Arizona is a team many peg to take the next step towards a playoff push in 2020. Their biggest offseason acquisition was wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins in exchange for running back David Johnson. Hopkins will look to bring another added dimension to Kingsbury’s air-raid offense.
The Los Angeles Rams failed to make the playoffs after finishing 9-7. Had this year’s playoff rules been in effect last year, the Rams would have snuck in as the seventh seed. However, given the strength of the division and their crossover opponents, nine wins is highly unlikely this year.
If their divisional games were not tough enough, Los Angeles makes trips to Buffalo, Tampa Bay, and Philadelphia. In addition, they host playoff contenders Dallas and New England. As a result of their loaded schedule, FanDuel Sportsbook has the Rams projected win total at 8.5 with heavy juice of -130 towards the under.
Todd Gurley’s Absence Will Be Felt
For the last three seasons, the Rams were at their best when Todd Gurley was running roughshod over opponents. In 2017 and 2018, Gurley posted consecutive 1,250+ yard seasons while leading the league in rushing touchdowns both years. However, in 2019 a balky knee issue limited his effectiveness all year and the Rams offense suffered as a whole.
It is clear that Gurley’s injury affected quarterback Jared Goff’s performance. Last year, Goff had his worst year in the last three seasons. His touchdown total was way down and his 16 interceptions were more than double what he had in 2017. Gurley has moved on to Atlanta, and more of the offensive load will need to be shouldered by Goff and the passing game.
Gurley will be replaced by a committee that features Darrell Henderson Jr., rookie Cam Akers and Malcolm Brown. Henderson has just 147 rushing yards on 39 career attempts while Brown has not rushed for more than 255 yards in any season. This does not project to be a rushing attack take will take a heavy load off Jared Goff’s shoulders.
Wade Phillips’ Absence is Just as Big
Another thing that worries me about Los Angeles entering 2020 is the absence of defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. Phillips is considered one of the best coordinators in NFL history, but his contract was not renewed by the team. While Phillips brought a veteran presence and wealth of knowledge to Sean McVay’s staff three years ago, new hire Brandon Staley is anything but a veteran. The 37-year old Staley has spent the last three seasons coaching under Vic Fangio with the Bears and Broncos. He has never been a coordinator before, instead serving as outside linebackers coach.
Having new identities on offense and defense does not exactly breed confidence in the Rams entering this season. Look for Jared Goff to struggle without his security blanket in Gurley and for the defense to take a step back under their new young coordinator.
PICK: No, the Los Angeles Rams will miss the playoffs (-160 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.