NFL bettors can learn a lot from the betting market. This education comes primarily through line movement on games. Changes to the odds, point spread, or total for a game indicate that one side has taken a significant amount of money. In the name of balancing their accounts, sportsbooks react by adjusting the lines on that game to try and attract money on the opposite side.

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Line Movement Analysis for Week 1

With Week 1 now upon us, it’s worth looking at the games on the slate that have seen significant line movement. Opening lines for the first week of the season often prove to be more volatile than any other week. This is because there are a full four months between the lines being posted and the games being played as opposed to a single week for all games the rest of the season. With that said, line movement ahead of Week 1 can often reflect significant roster additions, key preseason injuries, and any other number of noteworthy things to consider when handicapping the games for yourself.

Refer to the side by side comparison of the opening lines and current odds for all Week 1 games in the table below. Analysis and speculation about games that saw especially significant movement will follow in the sections below.

All odds courtesy of FOXBet

Game	Opening Lines	Current Odds
Texans at Chiefs	Chiefs -10.5; O/U 56.5	Chiefs -9.5; O/U 54
Dolphins at Patriots	Patriots -6; O/U 44	Patriots -6.5; O/U 42
Browns at Ravens	Ravens -8; O/U 49	Ravens -8; O/U 48.5
Jets at Bills	Bills -5.5; O/U 40.5	Bills -6.5; O/U 39.5
Raiders at Panthers	Panthers -1; O/U 46.5	Raiders -3; O/U 48
Seahawks at Falcons	Seahawks -1; O/U 48.5	Seahawks -2.5; O/U 48.5
Eagles at Washington	Eagles -6; O/U 44	Eagles -5.5; O/U 42.5
Bears at Lions	Lions -1; O/U 46.5	Lions -3; O/U 43.5
Colts at Jaguars	Colts -7.5; O/U 46.5	Colts -8; O/U 45
Packers at Vikings	Vikings -3.5; O/U 47	Vikings -2.5; O/U 45
Chargers at Bengals	Chargers -4; O/U 46	Chargers -3.5; O/U 43
Cardinals at 49ers	49ers -7.5; O/U 45	49ers -6.5; O/U 48.5
Buccaneers at Saints	Saints -4.5; O/U 49.5	Saints -3.5; O/U 48.5
Cowboys at Rams	Cowboys -3; O/U 49.5	Cowboys -3; O/U 51.5
Steelers at Giants	Steelers -3; O/U 48	Steelers -6; O/U 46.5
Titans at Broncos	Broncos -3; O/U 41.5	Titans -2.5; O/U 41

Week 1 Point Spread Movement Analysis

Raiders at Panthers

With the second-largest point spread move of the Week 1 slate, Sunday's game between Las Vegas and Carolina shifted a whole four points in favor of the Raiders. The Panthers opened as one-point home favorites and now find themselves as field-goal underdogs. So what explains such a drastic move?

Simply put, the betting market views the Raiders as the superior team. No significant injury to a key Panthers contributor caused this move. In fact, all the injuries of note for this game are on the Raiders side. Carolina is simply a young team playing its first game with Teddy Bridgewater as its quarterback, and they’re beginning a whole new era with Matt Rhule as head coach.

The Raiders don't figure to be among the NFL's elite teams in 2020, but their rebuild is at least a year ahead of the Panthers’. Even with a cross-country trip on tap for this game, I agree with Las Vegas being a short favorite. Perhaps some of the movement could also be attributed to the buzz surrounding Sin City now calling the Raiders their own.

Steelers at Giants

One of the best parts of Week 1 is the doubleheader action on Monday Night Football. Both games have seen significant point spread line movement, as the Steelers have drawn the money in this game. An opening field goal spread has shot up to a six-point advantage for Pittsburgh.

I like the Steelers a lot this year. Their defense has the chance to be the best in the league, and assuming that Ben Roethlisberger returns to form after missing nearly all of the 2019 season, they should be able to put up points as well. The offense is loaded with talented playmakers who should have no trouble exploiting the weak Giants defense.

The Giants’ offense has the potential to take another step forward in their second year with Daniel Jones at quarterback. He’ll have to transition a bit, however, as new offensive coordinator Jason Garrett will call the plays. Also, the Steelers’ defense is a brutal matchup for any opponent, especially a new QB-OC combo. I have no qualms at all with the betting market backing Pittsburgh in this one.

Titans at Broncos

The late game on Monday night at Mile High has also seen significant line movement in favor of the visiting team. After opening as field-goal favorites, the Broncos now find themselves as 2.5-point dogs to Tennessee. A combination of things has likely factored into what is the largest point spread move of the Week 1 slate.

For starters, the Titans figure to be the superior team here. The betting market has the recency bias of an AFC Championship run in last year's playoffs at the forefront of its memory. Tennessee also acquired the star defensive end, Jadeveon Clowney, just this past weekend, which shores up a unit that had many questioning its ability to generate a consistent pass rush in the wake of Jurrell Casey's departure to Denver.

The other recent news that explains the line move for Monday's game came on the Denver side earlier this week. Von Miller, the heart and soul of the Broncos defense, suffered a freak ankle injury in practice that may end his season. Mile High also figures to become a bit easier to play for road teams when there are no fans in the stands. Add it all up, and the Titans now find themselves as deserved short favorites.

Week 1 Totals Movement Analysis

Chargers at Bengals

This Week 1 showdown features two quarterbacks who are making their first starts for their respective teams. Tyrod Taylor will make his first start as a Charger and his first since the early part of the 2018 season. Meanwhile, No. 1 overall draft pick Joe Burrow is set to take the field for his first NFL game action on Sunday. The unknowns surrounding both offenses alone are enough to warrant the three-point move to the under that has occurred.

To take it a step further, nether defense in this game is that bad. Los Angeles dealt with several injuries at all three levels last year, but Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram, and the rest should be able to make life tough for Burrow. Meanwhile, Cincinnati's defense isn't great, but they should be better than a season ago. Offseason acquisitions D.J. Reader and Vonn Bell will make their impact felt.

I expect the Chargers to win the game, but it may take a bit for them to get in an offensive groove. Even at the current total of 43, the under is still a potential play.

Cowboys at Rams

The Sunday night game runs contrary to popular Week 1 total practice in that it has been bet up. After opening at 49.5, the betting market has moved the needle on the over/under to 51.5. While Dallas and Los Angeles are both plenty capable of scoring points, should you join in betting the over?

When you think of both the Cowboys and Rams, you think of the offenses. Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, and Amari Cooper. Jared Goff, Cooper Kupp, and Robert Woods. And those are just the biggest names. While offenses will get their fair share on Sunday night, this is 2020. Offenses typically start slower than defenses. The lack of a preseason this year could only further complicate matters.

The other thing to consider when diagnosing this movement to the over is that the Cowboys are America's team. As such, Dallas garners more public money than any other NFL team. The public is known for betting favorites and overs, so this might also be a contributing factor to the total rising.

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.