NFL Line Movement Analysis for Week 10
The second half of the NFL season is now in full swing as we enter the tenth week of play. There has already been plenty of line movement in the betting market over the course of the week, even with the Sunday slate of games still three days away. Many factors are thought to be behind some of the larger moves, including injury news, rumored COVID-19 absences, weather reports, and more. It was interesting to note several large adjustments on game points totals this week relative to opening numbers. Meanwhile, point spreads have seen some more modest line movement overall.
Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>
Line Movement Analysis for Week 10
Refer to the side by side comparison of opening lines and consensus current odds for all Week 10 games in the table below. For games that have experienced especially significant or interesting movement, analysis of and reasoning for the changes are included in the sections below.
| Game | Opening Lines | Current Odds |
| Colts at Titans | Titans -1.5; O/U 50.5 | Pick’em; O/U 48.5 |
| Eagles at Giants | Eagles -3.5; O/U 41 | Eagles -3.5; O/U 44.5 |
| Texans at Browns | Browns -2.5; O/U 55 | Browns -3.5; O/U 49 |
| Washington at Lions | Lions -4; O/U 55 | Lions -3.5; O/U 46.5 |
| Jaguars at Packers | Packers -13.5; O/U 54.5 | Packers -13; O/U 50 |
| Buccaneers at Panthers | Buccaneers -6; O/U 47 | Buccaneers -5.5; O/U 50.5 |
| Bills at Cardinals | Cardinals -2; O/U 49 | Cardinals -1; O/U 56 |
| Chargers at Dolphins | Dolphins -1; O/U 47 | Dolphins -2.5; O/U 48 |
| Broncos at Raiders | Raiders -3.5; O/U 51 | Raiders -4.5; O/U 50.5 |
| 49ers at Saints | Saints -6.5; O/U 53 | Saints -10; O/U 49 |
| Seahawks at Rams | Rams -1.5; O/U 53.5 | Rams -1; O/U 55.5 |
| Bengals at Steelers | Steelers -10; O/U 46.5 | Steelers -7.5; O/U 47.5 |
| Ravens at Patriots | Ravens -6.5; O/U 40.5 | Ravens -7.5; O/U 43.5 |
| Vikings at Bears | Bears -1.5; O/U 46.5 | Vikings -2.5; O/U 43.5 |
Week 10 Point Spread Movement Analysis
Odds courtesy of FOXBet
49ers at Saints
|
SF
|
+8.5
-110
|
o49
-110
|
+320
|
|
| JOIN NOW |
NO
|
-8.5
-110
|
u49
-110
|
-400
|
The Move: Opening spread of Saints (-6.5) up to Saints (-8.5)
The betting market moved heavily against the 49ers in last week’s game against the Packers, and they were rewarded for it. After the Saints dominated the Buccaneers as road underdogs in the primetime spotlight last week, it’s not surprising to see this line tick up higher than the closing number for the 49ers-Packers game. Many have anointed the Saints the best team in the NFC following their dominant Sunday night performance, while the 49ers continue to be an injury-plagued mess.
Stripped of key difference-makers on both sides of the ball, San Francisco figures to be in for another rough outing against a Saints team that got a boost last week with the return of Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. The FOXBet line of 8.5 is lower than other shops on the market and figures to rise further ahead of Sunday’s kickoff.
Vikings at Bears
|
MIN
|
-3
-110
|
o44
-110
|
-150
|
|
| JOIN NOW |
CHI
|
+3
-110
|
u44
-110
|
+125
|
The Move: Opening spread of Bears (-1.5) through a pick’em to Vikings (-3)
This Monday night NFC North battle also has seen its line move based on recent form from both teams. After starting the year 5-2, the Bears have lost two straight, looking inept offensively in the process. How much of this falls on Matt Nagy’s play-calling or Nick Foles’ inabilities is very much up for debate at this point after the offensive line looked atrocious against the Titans last week. On top of this, David Montgomery remains in the concussion protocol and is in danger of missing Monday’s game.
The Vikings haven’t exactly been an offensive juggernaut overall, but they have Dalvin Cook, and that has been more than enough. Mike Zimmer has got his young defense playing much better of later as well. Add it all up and the betting market likes Minnesota will look to get their third straight divisional win.
Texans at Browns
|
HOU
|
+3.5
-110
|
o49
-110
|
+160
|
|
| JOIN NOW |
CLE
|
-3.5
-110
|
u49
-110
|
-188
|
The Move: Opening total of 55 down to 49
Both the Texans and Browns have been far more proficient offensively than defensively over the first half of the season. While this is likely still the case given the talent on both sides, 55 is not exactly an easy total to sail over in the NFL. Another factor worth noting here is the Cleveland forecast, which is calling for rain showers on Sunday. We saw how bad weather severely capped the abilities of the Browns offensively in their game two weeks ago against the Raiders. The new total of 49 certainly feels more accurate, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see it fall a bit further before kickoff.
Washington at Lions
|
WAS
|
+4.5
-110
|
o46.5
-110
|
+175
|
|
| JOIN NOW |
DET
|
-4.5
-110
|
u46.5
-110
|
-213
|
The Move: Opening total of 55 down to 46.5
While it’s not difficult to rationalize opening a Texans-Browns game with a total in the mid-’50s, the opening over/under line of 55 for this Washington vs Detroit contest is far more mystifying. Despite their 2-6 record, the Washington Football Team plays defense very well. Pass rushers Chase Young, Montez Sweat, and Ryan Kerrigan headline a unit that ranks sixth in overall adjusted efficiency and first against the pass, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA analytics. The feared absence of Kenny Golladay would leave Matthew Stafford without his most talented receiver as he tries to move the ball against the stout Football Team D.
Was the opening total was trying to suggest that Alex Smith gives Washington that much more pop offensively? He may very well prove to be an upgrade over Kyle Allen, and the Lions have looked very bad defensively of late. But Washington’s offensive line is not one to bank a ton of points on.
Ravens at Patriots
|
BAL
|
-7
-110
|
o44
-110
|
-333
|
|
| JOIN NOW |
NE
|
+7
-110
|
u44
-110
|
+260
|
The Move: Opening total of 40.5 up to 44
It’s been interesting to see the total for this week’s Sunday night contest rise a full four points, particularly given how well the Ravens defense has played of late. The Patriots came to life offensively in their last two games, but it’s worth noting that those matchups were against two teams that have been leaking rushing yards and points all season long in the Bills and Jets. Cam Newton is unlikely to find similar success against the Ravens, and the same can be said for the Patriots rushing attack which has become the bread and butter of their offense.
The rising total figures to be more of a play on Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore offense and against the depleted Patriots defense. The Ravens offense hasn’t looked pretty on more than one occasion this season, but they should be able to get theirs against a unit that gave up 24 points to Joe Flacco and the Jets last week. The betting market might be ahead of the casual NFL fan in admitting that this is not the Bill Belichick defense that we are used to seeing.
Find consensus odds from all major sportsbooks for Week 9 of the NFL >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section — including How to Make an Online Sports Bet — or head to more advanced strategy — like How to Set and Maintain Your Sports Betting Budget — to learn more.
Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.