NFL Line Movement Analysis for Week 12
How is it Week 12 of the NFL season already? It always flies by, but this year it seems to be going especially quickly. Anything to speed up 2020, right? Before diving too much further into NFL football talk, I want to wish all readers a happy and blessed Thanksgiving.
Of course, Thanksgiving Day is the one Thursday of the year in which there are multiple NFL games. The lines on both Turkey Day games have seen movement along with several others on the Week 12 slate. Let's take a look at how the current lines compare to the opening numbers and assess what might be driving these market shifts.
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Line Movement Analysis for Week 12
Refer to the side-by-side comparison of consensus opening lines and current odds for all Week 12 games in the table below. For games that have experienced especially significant or interesting movement, analysis of and reasoning for the changes are included in the sections below.
| Game | Opening Lines | Current Odds |
| Texans at Lions | Texans -2.5; O/U 50.5 | Texans -3; O/U 51.5 |
| Washington at Cowboys | Cowboys -1.5; O/U 47.5 | Cowboys -3; O/U 46 |
| Ravens at Steelers | Steelers -2.5; O/U 46 | Steelers -4; O/U 45 |
| Panthers at Vikings | Vikings -3.5; O/U 49.5 | Vikings -3.5; O/U 51 |
| Dolphins at Jets | Dolphins -7; O/U 46 | Dolphins -6.5; O/U 44 |
| Browns at Jaguars | Browns -6; O/U 46.5 | Browns -6.5; O/U 49.5 |
| Raiders at Falcons | Raiders -1.5; O/U 56 | Raiders -3; O/U 55 |
| Chargers at Bills | Bills -6; O/U 52 | Bills -5.5; O/U 53.5 |
| Giants at Bengals | Giants -4; O/U 43 | Giants -6; O/U 43 |
| Titans at Colts | Colts -4; O/U 49.5 | Colts -3; O/U 52 |
| Cardinals at Patriots | Cardinals -1.5; O/U 48 | Cardinals -2.5; O/U 50.5 |
| Saints at Broncos | Saints -5.5; O/U 46 | Saints -6; O/U 43.5 |
| 49ers at Rams | Rams -7; O/U 46.5 | Rams -7; O/U 45 |
| Chiefs at Buccaneers | Chiefs -3; O/U 52.5 | Chiefs -3.5; O/U 56 |
| Bears at Packers | Packers -7.5; O/U 46 | Packers -9; O/U 45 |
| Seahawks at Eagles | Seahawks -6.5; O/U 52 | Seahawks -4.5; O/U 50 |
Week 12 Point Spread Movement Analysis
Odds courtesy of FOXBet
Raiders at Falcons
|
LV
|
-3
-118
|
o54
-110
|
-163
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOIN NOW |
ATL
|
+3
EVEN
|
u54
-110
|
+135
|
The Move: Opening Spread of Raiders (-1.5) moving up to Raiders (-3)
Just like the Washington-Cowboys game on Thanksgiving, Sunday's showdown between the Raiders and Falcons has seen the market shift in favor of Las Vegas as a short road favorite. The Raiders just gave the Chiefs all they could handle for the second time this year while the Falcons looked incompetent in losing to Taysom Hill and the Saints. It seems safe to say that this line move can be chalked up to recent performance.
With that said, laying points with a team on the road is never something I'm rushing to do when betting the NFL, much less a team traveling west to east as the Raiders are this week. As tough as it is to back Atlanta, I'm not rushing to follow the line move and play against them either.
Giants at Bengals
|
NYG
|
-6
-110
|
o43
-110
|
-275
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOIN NOW |
CIN
|
+6
-110
|
u43
-110
|
+225
|
The Move: Opening spread of Giants (-4) moving to Giants (-6)
The Giants were actually field goal underdogs on the lookahead line last week. Of course, that was before Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow went down for the season with multiple knee injuries. New York reopened as four-point favorites and have steamed up to -6 throughout the week. At 3-7, the Giants are right in the thick of the NFC East race and shouldn't be lacking in motivation. Meanwhile, the season can't end soon enough for Cincinnati. Brandon Allen is NOT Joe Burrow. It's no surprise this line has moved in favor of the road team.
Seahawks at Eagles
|
SEA
|
-5.5
-110
|
o50
-110
|
-225
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOIN NOW |
PHI
|
+5.5
-110
|
u50
-110
|
+190
|
The Move: It's Complicated (Read on!)
This line move is a fun one! The Seahawks were three-point road favorites on last week's lookahead line for this crucial matchup in Philadelphia. The combination of a Seattle victory over the Cardinals and the Eagles looking lost yet again in Week 11 resulted in the Seahawks reopening as 6.5-point favorites.
While this looks like a huge move in favor of the Seahawks relative to the true opening number on the lookahead, it's actually the Eagles who have taken sharp money. The fact that the line has come down even though there's an overwhelming ticket count on the Seahawks is another huge factor. What's more, the current line of Seattle -5.5 at FOXBet is actually a full point higher than at several other sportsbooks and may offer value for those looking to back the home dog.
Week 12 Totals Movement Analysis
Odds courtesy of FOXBet
Saints at Broncos
|
NO
|
-6
-110
|
o43.5
-110
|
-250
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOIN NOW |
DEN
|
+6
-110
|
u43.5
-110
|
+210
|
The Move: Opening Total of 46 down to 43.5
For the second straight week, we see the total in a Saints game dip down. Many (myself included) believed that the market move last week was an overreaction to Taysom Hill being named the team's starter and bought back on the Over. If anything, the Falcons’ offense was a bigger letdown in that game than Hill and the Saints. Nonetheless, both New Orleans and Denver bring stout defenses to the table in this Week 12 contest. Predicting minimal points is a valid handicap, but any value to the Under is long gone at this point.
Chiefs at Buccaneers
|
KC
|
-4
-110
|
o56.5
-110
|
-188
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOIN NOW |
TB
|
+4
-110
|
u56.5
-110
|
+160
|
The Move: Opening Total of 52.5 up to 56
The betting market expects points aplenty in this marquee matchup between two of the best QBs the NFL has ever seen. Patrick Mahomes should have no trouble picking apart the Buccaneers secondary. It's also worth noting that the last time Tom Brady and Tampa Bay lost in primetime (just three weeks ago), they responded by hanging 46 points on the Panthers the following week. I would argue that the upward total movement is completely justifiable. At what point though do we start looking to buy back the other way?
Find consensus odds from all major sportsbooks for Week 12 of the NFL >>
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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.