NFL Line Movement Analysis for Week 7 (2020)
It looks to be another fun slate of NFL football ahead. Week 6 went off without any COVID-19-related hitches and the coast is clear so far for Week 7 as well (*knocks on wood*). All 14 games remain on the board at the sportsbooks, although the line movement seems to be more concentrated around a select few matchups this week than in those prior. With the betting market playing the waiting game on several of the opening Week 7 numbers, it begs the question of what exactly is behind an NFL line move?
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Common Factors Behind a Line Move
It’s important to remember that line moves are sportsbooks’ attempts at aligning themselves on the side of sharp bettors. Heavy sharp money on an NFL line can cause the book to move the line in that direction in order to attract more money on the other side. Throughout a given game week, you are bound to notice lines directly impacted by recent performance, player injury news, and coaching decisions, most notably regarding the starting quarterback.
Of course, some lines don’t move even when they are taking money. That’s one of the many reasons why the art of sports betting is so difficult to master. As a handicapper, one must be able to sniff out the suspect lines. If a line feels off but has not moved, that could be because the sportsbook is looking to draw more money on the “obvious†side knowing full well that there is sharp action going the other way. In this instance, you are wise to double down on your research into the matchup to see what, if anything, you might have missed.
Line Movement Analysis for Week 7
Refer to the side by side comparison of consensus opening lines and current odds for all Week 7 games in the table below. For games that have experienced especially significant or interesting movement, analysis of and reasoning for the changes are included in the sections below.
Odds courtesy of FOXBet
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| Game | Opening Lines | Current Odds |
| Giants at Eagles | Eagles -5.5; O/U 45 | Eagles -4.5; O/U 45 |
| Browns at Bengals | Browns -3.5; O/U 52 | Browns -3.5; O/U 50.5 |
| Steelers at Titans | Steelers -1.5; O/U 52.5 | Titans -1; O/U 50.5 |
| Lions at Falcons | Falcons -3; O/U 56.5 | Falcons -2; O/U 55.5 |
| Panthers at Saints | Saints -7.5; O/U 51 | Saints -7.5; O/U 51 |
| Bills at Jets | Bills -12.5; O/U 46 | Bills -13.5; O/U 45 |
| Cowboys at Washington | Cowboys -2; O/U 47.5 | Washington -1; O/U 46 |
| Packers at Texans | Packers -3; O/U 56 | Packers -3.5; O/U 57.5 |
| Seahawks at Cardinals | Seahawks -3.5; 56 | Seahawks -3.5; O/U 56 |
| Chiefs at Broncos | Chiefs -9; O/U 48.5 | Chiefs -9.5; O/U 45.5 |
| 49ers at Patriots | Patriots -3.5; O/U 45.5 | Patriots -2.5; O/U 43.5 |
| Jaguars at Chargers | Chargers -10; O/U 49 | Chargers -7.5; O/U 49 |
| Buccaneers at Raiders | Buccaneers -3; O/U 53.5 | Buccaneers -4; O/U 51.5 |
| Bears at Rams | Rams -5.5; O/U 47 | Rams -6; O/U 44.5 |
Week 7 Point Spread Movement Analysis
Cowboys at Washington
|
DAL
|
+1
-110
|
o46
-110
|
-110
|
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WAS
|
-1
-110
|
u46
-110
|
-110
|
The Cowboys and Washington will both know the updated state of the NFC East ahead of their head-to-head matchup this week thanks to the Giants and Eagles squaring off on Thursday Night Football. Dallas opened as 2-point road favorites in this critical matchup. The line has swung in Washington’s favor, going all the way through 0 at some books. It currently sits as a pick’em at FOXBet.
Going back to those factors that influence line movement, Dallas certainly falls into the category of negative recent performance. After losing Dak Prescott for the season to a gruesome injury two weeks ago, the Cowboys got run off their home field last Monday night by the Cardinals. Even if Andy Dalton and the offense are better against Washington, it remains tough to bet on the Cowboys defense. Through Week 6, Dallas is surrendering a league-high 36.3 points per game, over 4 points more than the 31st ranked scoring defense.
The Football Team hasn’t done much to inspire confidence in recent games either. After a 1-0 start to the season, Washington has lost five straight, including a game they really should’ve had last week against the Giants. Even so, they remain only a game out of first place in the horrendous NFC East. Kyle Allen will need to reduce his turnovers, but I could certainly see the Washington offense scoring on this Cowboys defense. Everyone else sure has thus far. Football Team brings a talented defensive front to the table that has the ability to make an opposing QB’s life miserable. Given the injuries along the Dallas offensive front, Chase Young, Montez Sweat, and the rest figure to be licking their chops this week.
49ers at Patriots
|
SF
|
+2.5
-110
|
o43.5
-118
|
+105
|
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NE
|
-2.5
-110
|
u43.5
100
|
-125
|
It sure would be interesting to see what the line on this game might’ve been if not for the most recent performances by both the 49ers and Patriots in Week 6. As it is, New England opened as 3.5-point home favorites. The 49ers have taken the sharp money thus far, causing the line to drop a full point at FOXBet and even more than that at other shops.
Left for dead but a week ago, the 49ers were featured in last week’s line movement column on the wrong end of a massive line movement against them. It felt like a buy-low spot and, sure enough, Jimmy Garoppolo returned to competent form and San Fran dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball in their win over the Rams. The secondary remains a vulnerability, but how capable are these 2020 Patriots of exposing it? With Raheem Mostert going on IR, the rushing duties will again be put on Jerick McKinnon and Jeff Wilson. But if the 49ers are able to find rushing success and wear down the New England defense, this game is a total pick for me.
The Patriots offense sputtered mightily against the Broncos last week. One could argue whether or not Denver’s defense is better than the injury-marred version of the 49ers unit that New England will face Sunday. Regardless, Cam Newton and the Pats’ offense need to show up better than in Week 6. In what shapes up to be a brutal matchup for running (49ers allow just 108.3 yards per game), the pressure will be on Newton, Julian Edelman, and the rest of the Patriots’ unproven receiving corps to perform.
Jaguars at Chargers
|
JAC
|
+7.5
-110
|
o49
-110
|
+280
|
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LAC
|
-7.5
-110
|
u49
-105
|
-350
|
A pair of teams who haven’t won since the first week of the season will meet in SoCal on Sunday when the Jaguars take on the Chargers. Jacksonville has been a common sharp side throughout the season and Week 7 is no different. The Chargers opened as -10.5 favorites and now see themselves only laying -7.5 at FOXBet.
Lately, Jacksonville has looked to be more like the team most experts thought they were entering the season than the first two weeks. The young defense has struggled to get off the field and the Jaguars offensive line play just hasn’t been good enough to put up points consistently against tougher competition. Of course, MinshewMania can strike at any moment, but the Chargers are the 12th ranked defense in terms of adjusted efficiency (Football Outsiders), a stat the common NFL bettor might not know given the team’s tendency to blow big leads this season.
Los Angeles is still trying to land Justin Herbert his first win as a starting NFL quarterback. It hasn’t exactly been an easy schedule for the rookie to begin his career with. Other than the Bengals whom L.A. beat back in Week 1, no team the Chargers have played since is below the .500 mark on the season. Sunday presents a must-have game if the Chargers hope to make good on the preseason playoff aspirations that surrounded the team. Herbert has a terrific matchup against a vulnerable Jaguars secondary, and Los Angeles should be able to get after it defensively in this one. On paper, it looks like a mismatch. In actuality, the Chargers’ propensity to blow leads may have led many sharp bettors to find the double-digit opening line too high.
Week 7 Totals Movement Analysis
Chiefs at Broncos
|
KC
|
-9.5
-110
|
o45.5
-110
|
-450
|
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DEN
|
+9.5
-110
|
u45.5
-105
|
+350
|
It’s rare to see a total drop below 47 points for a Chiefs game, but that is exactly where the over/under for Sunday’s game against the Broncos has gone. After opening at 48.5, the total has dipped down to 45.5 points at FOXBet.
The Chiefs managed to get back to their winning ways last week against the Bills. They may have only scored 26 points, but you can’t look at that game and not notice the Buffalo rainstorm acting as an extra defender that the offense had to contend with. 45.5 seems low for a total in a game that involves Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs defense has been sneaky good (21.1 points allowed per game), but the Broncos are much more behind the line move in my eyes than Kansas City.
Despite losing Von Miller before the season and Jurrell Casey a few weeks in, the Broncos continue to look impressive defensively. Denver ranks 6th in overall adjusted efficiency (top-10 against both the run and pass) and is 12th in points allowed at 22.0 per game. On top of such sound defensive numbers, the Broncos offense has struggled mightily. Even with Drew Lock returning last week, Denver failed to find the end zone and instead rode 6 Brandon McManus field goals to victory. Add in the altitude potentially slowing the Chiefs high-powered offense down somewhat and the move is perfectly justifiable. How much further the total for the game will drop, if any, will be interesting to note.
Bears at Rams
|
CHI
|
+6
-105
|
o44.5
-110
|
+225
|
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LAR
|
-6
-110
|
u44.5
-110
|
-275
|
Unlike the Chiefs, line movement to the under for a Bears game is a rather common occurrence. Chicago’s Monday night contest with the Rams this week is no exception. The over/under has been bet down a full two points from the opening 47 to the current line of 44.5 at FOXBet.
On the surface, I completely understand why the under is taking smart money in this matchup. The Bears defense, led by Khalil Mack, has proven fierce once again this season, consistently generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks and forcing mistakes. With four of their next five matchups coming against offense listed in the PFF tweet below, we will find out soon enough just what this Bears D is capable of.
Chicago’s offense, while improving since switching to Nick Foles at quarterback, is also not spectacular. The Rams defense has been exposed in a couple of games, but with playmakers like Aaron Donald capable of shutting down drives, it’s not a unit to be taken lightly. To that end, the Rams offense struggled greatly last week against the 49ers. Add in Jared Goff’s tendency to make mistakes, and it’s no wonder why the opening line of 47 was deemed too high.
Now we get to the part where I’m a little conflicted on the line moves we’ve seen up to this point. The total has fallen a full two points, yet the Rams have been bet up a half-point to be laying 6. Larger point spreads are less likely to be covered in a game that projects to be low scoring given the fewer total points with which the favorite has to work with. I know that some of Chicago’s wins were of the ugly variety, but it’s also worth noting that Los Angeles is yet to beat a team not in the NFC East this season. Of the two moves, I’m very much inclined to think the 6-point spread will see sharp action on the Bears sooner than we get a total buyback ahead of Monday’s kickoff.
Find consensus odds from all major sportsbooks for Week 7 of the NFL >>
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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.