NFL Line Movement Analysis for Week 9 (2020)
The second half of the 2020 NFL season begins in earnest with Week 9 action this weekend. Thanks to various COVID-19 positives, exactly how many games are played, and which key players will officially be deemed unavailable for this week’s matchups remains to be seen. While there is often a tremendous advantage for bettors who are able to get the best of the number after opening, with so many unknowns and changing dynamics, that sentiment is a bit different this year. Despite the chaos, a few Week 9 games have experienced some significant line movement worth analyzing.
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Line Movement Analysis for Week 9
Refer to the side by side comparison of consensus opening lines and current odds for all Week 9 games in the table below. For games that have experienced especially significant or interesting movement, analysis of and reasoning for the changes are included in the sections below.
| Game | Opening Lines | Current Odds |
| Packers at 49ers | 49ers -1; O/U 51 | Packers -7.5; O/U 48 |
| Bears at Titans | Titans -6.5; O/U 46.5 | Titans -6; O/U 46.5 |
| Seahawks at Bills | Seahawks -1.5; O/U 55.5 | Seahawks -3; O/U 55 |
| Texans at Jaguars | Texans -4; O/U 51 | Texans -7; O/U 50.5 |
| Ravens at Colts | Ravens -4; O/U 44 | Ravens -2.5; O/U 47 |
| Broncos at Falcons | Falcons -3.5; O/U 47 | Falcons -3.5; O/U 50 |
| Panthers at Chiefs | Chiefs -10; O/U 50.5 | Chiefs -10.5; O/U 52.5 |
| Giants at Washington | Washington -3.5; O/U 43 | Washington -2.5; O/U 42 |
| Lions at Vikings | Vikings -2.5; O/U 55 | Vikings -4; O/U 52.5 |
| Raiders at Chargers | Chargers -2.5; O/U 52.5 | Pick’em; O/U 52 |
| Dolphins at Cardinals | Cardinals -6; O/U 47.5 | Cardinals -4.5; O/U 48 |
| Steelers at Cowboys | Steelers -13.5; O/U 41.5 | Steelers -13.5; O/U 41.5 |
| Saints at Buccaneers | Buccaneers -4.5; O/U 55 | Buccaneers -4.5; O/U 51.5 |
| Patriots at Jets | Patriots -7.5; O/U 41 | Patriots -7.5; O/U 42.5 |
Week 9 Point Spread Movement Analysis
Odds courtesy of FOXBet
Texans at Jaguars
|
HOU
|
-7
EVEN
|
o50.5
-118
|
-300
|
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JAC
|
+7
-118
|
u50.5
100
|
+245
|
The Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars each come into their Week 9 matchup with one win apiece. It’s the second meeting between the teams this season, with Houston claiming the first by a 16-point margin four weeks ago. After opening as 4-point road favorites in the rematch, the betting market has inflated point spread to Texans -7 at FOXBet.
Houston found themselves amongst many trade rumors prior to Tuesday’s league deadline. Many expected the Texans to sell off one or more high-priced assets as the franchise looks to recover from the disastrous management of Bill O’Brien and build for the future. No moves came, and Will Fuller, Zach Cunningham, and everyone else remains in place as a result. The Texans have the 28th-ranked defensive per Football Outsiders adjusted DVOA metrics. That’s bad, but the Jaguars are worse at 32nd (dead last). Deshaun Watson and the Houston offense are too talented to not feast in this matchup.
The biggest factor behind the line move on the game likely resides on the Jacksonville side of the equation. With Gardner Minshew set to miss the game due to a broken thumb, rookie Jake Luton will be under center. As previously noted, the Texans’ defense is bad, but no sharp bettor will be rushing to back a Luton-led offense. The current 7-point spread probably isn’t big enough.
Seahawks at Bills
|
SEA
|
-3
-118
|
o55
-110
|
-163
|
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BUF
|
+3
EVEN
|
u55
-110
|
+135
|
A pair of six-win teams will do battle in Western New York on Sunday when the Seattle Seahawks make the long trip east to take on the Buffalo Bills. Oddsmakers opened the Seahawks as 1.5-point favorites, and the betting market has since moved the needle up to the key number of -3 at FOXBet.
The Seahawks were able to rebound from their first loss of the season in Week 8 with an impressive win over the injury-plagued San Francisco 49ers. The Russell Wilson-D.K. Metcalf connection is a thing of beauty, and Seattle figures to benefit this week from a pair of impactful defensive reinforcements. Safety Jamal Adams is set to return from injury, and pass rusher Carlos Dunlap will be playing his first game as a Seahawk after being acquired in a trade last week. Seattle’s stock is rising, and the line move in their favor reflects this.
The Bills are a very fortunate six-win team, to say the least. Buffalo barely knocked off an undermanned New England Patriots squad last week and has looked far from impressive in recent weeks. Josh Allen should be able to do some damage against the Seahawks defense, but expecting the Bills to slow down Wilson and the high-powered offense is a whole different story. If we’re projecting a high-scoring game, a larger point spread makes sense from a variance standpoint as well.
Ravens at Colts
|
BAL
|
+1.5
-110
|
o48.5
-110
|
EVEN
|
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IND
|
-1.5
-110
|
u48.5
-110
|
-118
|
Despite vastly different public perceptions of the two teams, both the Baltimore Ravens and Indianapolis Colts enter their head-to-head showdown on Sunday with identical 5-2 records. The Ravens opened as 4-point road favorites, but the Colts have taken money as a home underdog in this instance. The line is now Ravens -2.5 at FOXBet.
Baltimore has been favored both times they’ve taken on an AFC contender thus far. Those games were both at home, and the Ravens lost both outright to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 3 and to the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers last week. Lamar Jackson’s struggles have continued, and the Ravens suffered a devastating loss in the form of offensive lineman Ronnie Stanley who broke his ankle last week.
One can debate as to whether the Colts are in the same class as the Chiefs and Steelers, but there’s no denying Frank Reich’s team has been playing well of late. The team trounced the Detroit Lions coming out of a bye last week, and Phillip Rivers has actually looked impressive of late. Indianapolis poses a defense on par with Kansas City and Pittsburgh. Darius Leonard and Co. are plenty capable of both confusing and slowing down Jackson on Sunday. The line movement here adequately reflects the direction each team is trending coming in.
Week 9 Totals Movement Analysis
Odds courtesy of FOXBet
Broncos at Falcons
|
DEN
|
+4.5
-110
|
o50
-110
|
+175
|
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ATL
|
-4.5
-110
|
u50
-110
|
-213
|
Both the Denver Broncos and Atlanta Falcons were able to secure outright wins as underdogs last week ahead of their clash this Sunday. While the point spread for the game has seen limited market movement, the total has surged upward. The over/under opened at 47 and has been bet up to an even 50 at FOXBet.
Drew Lock and the Broncos pulled a rabbit out of the hat in their comeback win over the Los Angeles Chargers last week. Even after scoring 31 points, it’s interesting to see the total on a Denver game rise so rapidly given that they only average 21.0 points per game on the season. Defensively, the Broncos aren’t what they’ve been in recent years thanks to injuries, but still are among the league’s best.
The Falcons are averaging 26.1 points per game on the season. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones have been on point in recent weeks after a sluggish start to the season. Will they find similar success against a Broncos pass defense that ranks 10th in adjusted efficiency (Football Outsiders)? Another factor that makes me question this heavy line move to the Over is the fact that Atlanta’s defense has been playing much better in recent weeks, allowing 23 points or less in each of their last four outings. The pass rush was phenomenal against the Panthers last Thursday night. I could easily see the defensive front causing Drew Lock problems.
Saints at Buccaneers
|
NO
|
+5
-110
|
o51
100
|
+188
|
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TB
|
-5
-110
|
u51
-118
|
-225
|
Nothing major on the line in this week’s Sunday Night Football game. Just NFC South supremacy as Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints clash with Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Heavy betting action has been on the Under for this divisional showdown. A total that opened 55 has been bet all the way down to 51 at FOXBet.
Where I disagreed with the movement on the Denver-Atlanta total, the line move for this game makes much more sense. The Saints rank 23rd in scoring defense (28.1 points allowed per game) but are top-10 in adjusted efficiency and rank strong individually against both the run and pass. This would tend to suggest that a regression to the mean in terms of points is coming in the second half of the season. The Saints thoroughly confused Tom Brady throughout the first meeting between the teams in Week 1. How much of that was the defense versus Brady’s first game in a new offensive system is unclear.
The Buccaneers have gone on a 6-1 tear since losing to New Orleans in Week 1. The defense has been a big component of Tampa Bay’s success. The Bucs are the best-adjusted defense in the NFL, with playmakers at all three levels who are capable of shutting down any part of an opposing offense. Personally, the opening total of 55 was failing to give either defense enough credit. With rain in the Tampa Bay forecast for Sunday as well, conditions may not be in favor of tons of points either.
Find consensus odds from all major sportsbooks for Week 9 of the NFL >>
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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.