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NFL London Betting Primer: Picks & Predictions (Jaguars vs. Rams)

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We're back across the pond for another London kickoff. The Jaguars are practically locals at this point, but the Rams bring a strong passing attack led by Davante Adams, capable of testing any secondary. These early windows have created strong prop opportunities in yardage markets - particularly for receiving and passing totals that are routinely mispriced due to the unique travel schedule.

5-Star Yardage Props on the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

  • Through six weeks, our yardage-based markets are crushing:
      • 70.89% win rate
      • 35.61% ROI
      • +28.13 units (over 79 bets)

Don't miss your edge before kickoff - passing, rushing, and receiving props continue to lead all categories this season.

International Series (London)

Los Angeles Rams @ Jacksonville Jaguars - Sunday, 9:30 AM ET (NFL Network, London)

BettingPros consensus odds:

Erickson’s pick: Rams -3

Confidence: ★★★ (3 out of 5)

Why:

  • LA under Matthew Stafford/ Sean McVay thrives ATS on the road.
  • The Rams have the best record since 2023 as a road favorite (8-1 ATS)
  • The Rams have covered the spread in 10 of their last 11 games as road favorites.
  • Favorites tend to dominate international games both ATS and SU.

Trends

Sides:

  • The Rams have won each of their last seven games against AFC opponents.
  • The Rams have won 16 of their last 18 games as favorites.
  • Jacksonville is 3-1 straight up and ATS in London in the last two seasons.
  • The Jaguars have lost 13 of their last 14 games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Jaguars have covered the spread in 17 of their last 24 road games (not in Jacksonville).
  • The Jags are just 5-18 as underdogs since the start of last season.

Totals:

  • Five of the last seven international games have gone OVER the total.
  • Seven of the last 12 international games have gone UNDER the total.
  • Both of the London Jaguars’ games last season went over the projected game total.
  • Four of the Jaguars’ last five games as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Jaguars have scored the first touchdown in five of their last six games.
  • The Rams have covered the spread in each of their six previous games against the Jaguars.
  • 9 of the Rams' last 12 games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.

Overall:

Really intriguing matchup across the pond this week. For the sake of the locals in London, I really hope they get to see more points scored than last week's Jets-Broncos debacle.

This is a true master versus apprentice matchup. Liam Coen spent his early coaching years on Sean McVay's staff (2018-2020) and again during the 2022 season.

Have to imagine that between these two offensive minds...they are going to want to put on a show for the international crowd.

Both offenses are coming off poor performances, which has created some value on the total (especially with international games trending toward unders).

However, I'll go back to the Rams in this spot, laying 2.5 points/3 points. Even without Puka Nacua, I think Matthew Stafford can still do damage through the air.

Per Next Gen Stats....Stafford has accumulated 1,181 passing yards against zone coverage this season (3rd-most in NFL), averaging 8.1 yards per attempt (11th-most).

He has completed 29 passes of 10+ air yards against zone, the 3rd-most in the NFL.

Now, Stafford has thrown 38 of his 98 completions against zone coverage to Puka Nacua, who will not play in Week 7, and has thrown just 4 of his 12 touchdown passes and both of his interceptions this season against zone.  The Jaguars have played zone coverage on 81.6% of snaps this season, the 7th-highest rate in the NFL. They have intercepted a league-high nine passes when doing so, while allowing four touchdowns and a 63.4% completion percentage (5th-lowest).

The Jaguars have been great vs slot WRs...but they have allowed the most FPGG to perimeter WRs.

Davante Adams’ nuclear game is incoming. The best way to attack it is to bet on his TD props. More to come.

The new Rams WR has a chance to really explode with Nacua sidelined.  Obviously, he and Stafford have been building chemistry on the fly as Adams is 5th in points scored BELOW expectation this season. He and the Rams QB have not been connecting as much as they should be, considering Adams is second in XPPG.

But Adams leads the NFL in red-zone targets (13). He has caught two of them. Eventually, the production is going to follow – especially when it comes to TDs.

The Jaguars are ALSO the second-most penalized team in the NFL...and we saw last week their turnover luck run dry in a loss to the Seahawks.

If the Rams’ pass rush can get after Trevor Lawrence like the Seahawks did last week...could be another tough day for the Jags QB (tied for 6th in turnover-worthy plays this season).

Stafford has his fair share of turnover-worthy throws (7) - but his 15 big-time throws lead all QBs this season.

When in doubt, expect a gutsy effort from the Rams QB to get the win.

Prop Angles:

Without Puka Nacua last season, Kyren Williams rushed at least 18 times in four of five games. With Blake Corum also banged up, I expect the Rams to lean heavily on the ground with Kyren. Conversely, there should be fewer pass attempts from Stafford. Without Nacua, Stafford went 4/5 toward the under on 34.5 pass attempts.

Brian Thomas Jr. has been heating up. 80-plus yards in back-to-back games since tight end Brenton Strange got hurt. The Rams are weakest defensively in their secondary, so BTJ should be able to accrue yardage when T-Law has time.

Erickson’s Props:

Full London Card:

  • Rams -3

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