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NFL London Betting Primer: Picks & Predictions (Jets vs. Broncos)

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We head across the pond for Sunday morning football as the Jets and Broncos clash in London. Neutral-site games often come with travel fatigue, strange momentum shifts, and unique scoring patterns - a perfect setup for live-betting value. Can Denver's offense handle the early start, or will the Jets' ground attack control the tempo overseas? Is leaving the country all the Jets need to finally get a win in 2025? Tune into the 9:30 AM ET kick off to find out!

I'll dig into the situational angles, overseas totals trends, and prop markets that usually cash in London.

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Denver Broncos @ New York Jets – (London, England) - Sunday, 9:30 AM ET (NFL Network)

BettingPros Consensus Odds: 

Erickson’s Pick:  Broncos -7

Confidence: ★★★★ (4 out of 5)
Why:

  • Favorites tend to dominate international games both ATS and SU.
  • Broncos play better as favorites - they feast on the weak.
  • Sean Payton's teams tend to hit their stride after the first few games
    • 2-0 ATS last two weeks after 0-3 ATS to start.

Trends

Sides:

  • The Broncos have been the first to 15 points in each of their last 12 games as favorites.
  • The Broncos have covered the spread in five of their last six games against teams that held a losing record.
  • The Jets have lost each of their last 10 games as underdogs.

Totals:

  • Five of the last six international games have gone OVER the total.
  • Six of the last 11 international games have gone UNDER the total.
  • 10 of the Jets' last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Six of the Broncos' last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • Denver is 4-1 toward the under this season.

Overall:

Wish I could have more confidence in the New York Jets this week. Alas... I do not. The Broncos’ defense matches up well with what the New York offense wants to do. They have above-average run defense and have a lockdown CB who can take Garrett Wilson out of the game.

Denver has one of the best pass rushes in the league, and that is going to make life difficult for Justin Fields. Fields is 0-26 when his defense allows at least 21 points. The Broncos have a 25.5-point implied team total.

Fields beat Denver last year as a starter for the Steelers as a 2.5-point road favorite. I don't think he will have the same luck two years in a row.

The Broncos will be ready when he looks to run. Quarterbacks have scrambled to run on a league-low 3.0% of their dropbacks against the Broncos’ defense this season. On six scramble rush attempts, the Broncos have allowed 17 yards (tied for the fewest in the NFL) according to Next Gen Stats.

Please give me the Broncos laying the 6.5 points in London. The Jets have entered the fourth quarter in their last four games down by at least two touchdowns before scoring late. Denver has allowed the second-fewest points in the fourth quarter this season (and second half). The garbage time points might run dry in this spot for Gang Green.

Prop Angles:

From the Jets offense, there's not much going for them. Breece Hall should have some explosive runs but there's not much to get excited about from a passing perspective. One of the only advantages the Jets have is in the short/quick passing game.

Insert Jets rookie TE Mason Taylor and RB Breece Hall.

Hall has gone over 27.5 yards in four of his five games played this season. The Broncos are allowing the 6th-most receiving yards to RBs this season (46.2/game). Worth noting that vs. Denver last season, Hall fell short of this number.

Mason Taylor has at least four catches in three straight games.

Bo Nix as an underdog? Rushing yards over. Hit it last week. But as a favorite...we slam the UNDER.

Last three games as a favorite this season? Under 20.5 rushing yards. Under in eight of his last 11 games as a favorite.

The Jets’ starting slot CB is likely out another week with a concussion. Cowboys backup WR Ryan Flournoy COOKED this defense from the slot last week.

Broncos No. 2 WR Troy Franklin runs the majority of his routes from the slot. He's been quiet since a Week 2 breakout game, but I think this matchup calls for him to see an increase in production. He also has four red-zone targets in the last three games. Franklin is second only to J.K. Dobbins in red-zone opportunities this season. The second-year WR also caught a two-point conversion last week to go with 73 air yards.

Evan Engram also runs 10-plus routes from the slot, so he could also be in line for some decent volume. The Jets have been smoked by TEs recently (Darren Waller, Jake Ferguson). 3-plus catches in three of four games this season, with four in back-to-back.

Erickson’s Props:


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