NFL Monday Night Betting Primer Picks & Player Prop Bets (Wild Card Weekend)
Under the lights on Monday Night Football, the NFL is giving us exactly what it wants to close Super Wildcard Weekend: Another Pittsburgh Steelers home game with Mike Tomlin as an underdog. The final Wild Card matchup closes the weekend with a tone shift: lowest total on the slate, colder environment, and an emphasis on physicality. These games often come down to field position, turnovers, and which team can stay composed when the game tightens late.
Keep this in mind from an overarching standpoint/angle when betting sides this weekend (especially after the results on Sat/Sun): In the last four years of the six-game Wild Card weekend format, home teams are 19-5 straight up (SU) and 17-7 against the spread (ATS) in the first round of the playoffs. The majority of these home teams are favored, given the higher seeding.
As always, this is where the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet really shines.
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Houston Texans @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Erickson's Pick: Texans -2.5
Confidence: ★★★★
Trends:
- The Texans have won each of their last nine games (won 7 straight first halves).
- The Steelers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six postseason games.
- The Texans have scored first in each of their last six games.
- Each of the Texans’ last four road games has gone UNDER the total points line (2-6 O/U on the road this season)
- Five of the Texans’ last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Twenty-three of the Texans’ last 35 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Nineteen of the Texans' last 32 wins have been by seven or fewer points (59%).
- The Steelers are 9-7-1 toward the OVER this season.
- Since 2024, the Steelers are 6-2 ATS at home (as a favorite) and 11-5 ATS overall at home.
- The Steelers are 23-0 at home on Monday Night Football.
- CJ Stroud is 0-2 on the road in the playoffs.
- Houston is 6-1 SU as a road favorite since 2024 (3-3-1 ATS). Scored first TD in five straight as road favorites.
Overall:
Houston is the better team, Houston's defense is real, and Pittsburgh's offense is predictable enough to get squeezed.
They want to get the ball out quickly with Aaron Rodgers under center, and I think the Texans can stop that approach. Per Next Gen Stats, the Texans allowed a league-low 5.0 yards per attempt on passes below 10 air yards and were one of two defenses with more interceptions (8) than touchdowns allowed (6) on such passes. They allowed a 39.8% success rate on underneath throws, one of just three defenses in the last ten seasons to hold opponents below 40%.
And if/when the Steelers look to take downfield shots with DK Metcalf back, the Texans’ pass rush will be ready. Per Next Gen Stats, Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. combined for 153 pressures this season, the most by any duo in the NFL.
They earned 52.4% of the Texans’ 292 total pressures by individual defenders this season, the 2nd-highest share owned by two players on any team since 2018, trailing only Maxx Crosby and Yannick Ngakoue on the 2021 Raiders (52.9%). No other duo this season produced more than 46.8% of their team’s pressures.
Nico Collins rested in Week 18 to ensure that he would be 100% ready to go for the postseason. I think there’s an argument to be made that he is the best offensive player in this contest.
He’s gone over 69.5 receiving yards in 6-of-9 games. Usually, he is clearing 75 receiving yards PLUS, but he has been held in check the last two games versus the Raiders/Chargers. Still, since Week 9, no game with fewer than 55 receiving yards (67.4 per game allowed to opposing No. 1s).
Back in 2023, Collins went for 7-168-2 versus the Steelers defense. His four postseason game numbers are also bonkers: 6-96-1, 5-68, 7-122-1 and 5-81.
I think for the Texans to win this game, it will take a big game from Collins against a defense that finished 6th in yards allowed to WRs (5th most YAC allowed).
Collins is listed at longer than 10-1 odds to lead all WRs in yardage this weekend.
Per Next Gen Stats, C.J. Stroud was successful against man coverage this season, recording a 116.2 passer rating (5th-highest) and averaging 7.1 yards per attempt, the 9th-most among quarterbacks. Stroud also threw for 14 touchdowns (tied for 9th-most) and recorded +0.18 EPA per dropback (5th-most) against man. The Steelers played man coverage on 37.2% of dropbacks this season (5th-highest) and allowed a first down conversion on 32.4% of such dropbacks (6th-lowest).
I ultimately side with the Texans laying the points on the road (especially considering I like all the home teams on Wildcard Weekend playing before Monday night). Doubt we see a 6-0 sweep of every home team winning, so I think it looks like a game where the home team comes up short.
Still, I think the best way to attack this game is through structure rather than sweating a side at potentially -3 (I got it -2.5).
Houston doesn't typically blow teams out, and Pittsburgh is exactly the kind of opponent that can keep a game in the mud for 58 minutes... and still lose.
That's why I LOVE the tease concept: Texans teased up through key numbers + game total teased down, because everything about this game screams low scoring. Defense travels. If Houston can deliver an elite defensive performance, it can win this game without needing a perfect offensive performance.
Per Next Gen Stats: The Texans played in nine games with fewer than 40 combined points in 2025, tied for the second most such games in the NFL (only CLE had more with 11).
71% of the Texans’ games have gone under 45.5 points and only once this season have they failed to cover a spread of +6.5 (one loss by 8 points). At +3.5, they have covered at an 82% clip.
The Texans +3.5 combined with the 45.5 Under gives you -120 odds (DraftKings Sportsbook). Add in the Jaylen Warren prop (keep reading) and you get a highly correlated 3-leg same game parlay at close to +150 odds (note this comes from the sportsbook, not the BP tool – which displays the implied odds).
Steelers can win ugly games - but they can also lose them the same way. Houston’s defense is the kind that can dictate a low-total game. The low total (39.5) tells you the book expects sludge.
As for props – teased above – take the layup on Warren’s receptions prop. We bet it last Sunday night, on success as Warren was targeted on the first two plays from scrimmage (finished with five receptions). Warren has over 1.5 receptions in all but two games this season (88%).
If the Steelers stick to their quick-passing game approach, these RBs should feast in the passing game. In his last matchup with the Texans in Week 9, 2024, Rodgers averaged a 2.22-second time to throw, his 3rd-quickest in a game since 2016 (Next Gen Stats).
5-star bet on the Prop Bet Cheat Sheet: C.J. Stroud UNDER 33.5 pass attempts. Under in 4-of-5 games. In the year 2025, he averaged just 30.2 pass attempts per game. And only in 4-of-12 games has he exceeded 33.5 pass attempts with Nico Collins in the lineup.
I also think that Stroud might opt to run more if possible in the postseason. Stroud has recorded 42 rushing yards in each of the Texans’ last two postseason games.
Props: