NFL Monday Night Football Betting Primer (49ers vs. Colts)
Monday Night Football closes Week 16 with a matchup that's all about perception versus reality. Philip Rivers – putting to bed the narrative that football is a young man’s game. Or is it?
The market tends to overcorrect based on what we just watched - and MNF is where those mistakes get exposed.
This is a perfect setup for props tied to game script, volume, and efficiency rather than headline narratives. Late-season MNF games often produce some of the most reliable prop angles of the week, especially when one team has a clear identity and the other is dealing with uncertainty.
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Monday Night Football
San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts - Monday Night Football
Erickson's Pick: 49ers -4.5
Confidence: ★★★★
Trends:
- The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in 15 of their last 18 games following a win.
- The 49ers have covered the spread in each of their last five games as road favorites.
- Five of the 49ers' last seven road games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Four of the Colts’ last five games at home as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
- Twelve of the Colts' last 19 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Seven of the Colts’ last 10 games following a loss have gone OVER the total points line.
- The Colts are 9-5 ATS at home since 2024 (3-2 ATS as a home underdog).
Overall:
I'm on the 49ers. This number feels short to me. People are going to look at the Colts hanging around last week and think the offense is "back," but that game was really about the Colts’ defense playing lights out - not the QB. The 49ers are still the 49ers: Brock Purdy, elite weapons, Shanahan, and they are in a controlled environment indoors where their offense can operate. I don't think the Colts can replicate that same defensive performance, and I don't think San Francisco should only be laying five here. Give me the Niners with some value based on their ATS road performance. That’s typically where they have performed better against the number.
Note that the 49ers’ defense is expected to get back some defensive depth this week between DT Sam Okuayinonu, DE Yetur Gross-Matos, LB Tatum Bethune, and DT Jordan Elliott.
Meanwhile, the Colts will be without CB Sauce Gardner another week, and LT Bernhard Raimann is out.
Rivers peppered his RBs for a combined nine targets in his return to football - with Ameer Abdullah hauling in five for 32 yards (lead team in catches/yards).
Jonathan Taylor also had 25 carries for 87 yards, but just didn't rip off any big plays or score. Still, he got fed 28 touches (3 receptions).
JT has gone over 2.5 receptions in 9-of-14 games this season. With his QB looking to heavily pepper his underneath targets, this is a low bar to pass for Taylor.
George Kittle caught eight of his nine targets for 88 yards and a touchdown in the 49ers' Week 15 win over the Titans. He recorded 78 yards after the catch, his most in a game this season. Without Ricky Pearsall, Kittle should remain Purdy’s top target. Also, Kittle needs 10 more receptions to pass HOF Terrell Owens for the 2nd most in 49ers history. Kittle (7,864) needs 136 more receiving yards to join Jerry Rice (19,247) and Owens (8,572) as the only players with 8,000+ career receiving yards in 49ers history (Next Gen Stats). Perfect time to start betting on Kittle receiving props (S/O to Welsh for listing this one on the Week 16 player props show).
Five straight Overs (67-plus yards) and the Colts are top-5 in allowing yards/receptions to TEs this season.
The Colts’ run defense might get a boost with DT DeForest Buckner returning from IR. They blanked the Seattle rushing attack in Week 15, and could have similar success versus Christian McCaffrey. CMC, as a rusher, has been most effective between the tackles, averaging 4.6 yards per carry and 3.1 yards after contact, compared to 2.7 per carry (2.9 after contact, -0.1 before contact) on outside runs. The Colts’ defense has missed 12.6% of their tackles against running backs, the 6th-lowest rate in the NFL. On inside runs, they have allowed RBs 3.4 yards per carry, including 2.6 yards after contact, both the lowest marks in the league.
His impact has been even more evident against the run. With Buckner on the field, the Colts have allowed 3.8 yards per carry and a 24.8% stuff rate, compared to 4.6 yards per carry and a 16.7% stuff rate without him. Before getting injured in Week 9, Buckner recorded 33 run tackles, the most among defensive tackles and 20 run stops (T-5th-most) according to Next Gen Stats.
CMC has gone over 63.5 rushing yards in 3-of-4, but he is only over this number in 43% of games this season. Given the matchup, I think he falls short on Monday Night. Projections have him with sub-60 yards.
Props:
- George Kittle Over 66.5 Receiving Yards
- Christian McCaffery Under 63.5 Rushing Yards
- Jonathan Taylor Over 2.5 Receptions