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NFL Monday Night Football Betting Primer (Cowboys vs. Cardinals)

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We wrap up Week 9 in prime time with another spot for disciplined bankroll management and selective exposure. By Monday, the edge shifts toward props and team totals, where BettingPros Premium continues to shine:

  • 5-Star Props Overall: 59.22% win rate | +13.74% ROI | +105 units
  • Yardage Props: 70.3% win rate | +36% ROI | +32.8 units

If you've been tailing the system, you know the drill - the data-driven prop sheet stays green. From expert insights on the spread/total, live betting opportunities, and can't-miss player props, I'll help you craft the perfect same-game parlay (SGP) to close out a profitable (hopefully) betting week.

Get ready, folks-it's time to place those bets. Let's dive into my top picks and player prop bets for Monday Night Football.

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Monday Night Football Betting Primer

Dallas Cowboys vs Arizona Cardinals - Monday, 8:15 PM ET (ESPN)
Erickson's Pick: Cowboys ML (tease with total over 43.5)
Confidence: ★★★★

Trends:

  • The Cowboys have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as favorites when playing with a rest disadvantage.
  • Dallas has won 14 straight games after a loss
  • The Cardinals have been the first to 15 points in seven of their last eight games. They have also allowed the first TD on the road in five straight.
  • The Cardinals have lost each of their last five games.
  • Every game Arizona played has been within one score (2-5 record in close games).
  • The road team has covered the spread in each of the Cardinals' last 7 games.
  • The Cardinals have covered the spread in 12 of their last 15 road games.
  • Each of the Cowboys’ last five games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • 18 of the Cowboys’ last 25 games have gone OVER the total points line.

Overall:

I much preferred Dallas laying the points at home when it seemed that Kyler Murray would play. And I'm into points overall - Dallas game totals at home have been 30+ friendly (averaging over 70 PPG combined at Jerry World in 2025). With Jacoby Brissett starting, I like the full-game over even more; otherwise, I'll lean toward Dallas on the money line.

They have been exceptional in bouncing back after losses, and historically have been a better team at home.

Arizona has also been great covering spreads on the road, but they have underwhelmed in the game totals in Kyler Murray's last five games.

Each of the Cardinals' last five games as underdogs with Murray under center the game gone UNDER the total points line.

Arizona is also 0-2 ATS after a bye under HC Jonathan Gannon. 2-4 ATS with just rest advantage overall.

If anything, this is a game to bet player props on because there should be at least plenty of yardage.

Bam Knight is expected to see the bulk of carries for the Cardinals, but he still is a candidate to lose pass-down work to a combination of Michael Carter and Emari Demercado. In the last three games, Knight has never led the Arizona backfield in routes run, going under 2.5 catches in both games that Demercado played.

He went over vs GB with two catches on the 2-minute drill - a role he usually doesn't see when Demercado is healthy.

5-star bet per the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.

Marvin Harrison Jr. has recorded 55+ receiving yards in three of his last four games, including a season-high 98 yards against the Titans.

In Week 7, Harrison Jr. only gained 58 receiving yards against the Packers but did so on just two receptions. The Cowboys defense is allowing 258.6 passing yards per game this season, ranking 2nd-most in the NFL (via Next Gen Stats).

Dak Prescott has passed for at least 260 yards four times this season, twice in his last three games, while averaging 258.6 passing yards per game (5th-most in 2025).

However, Prescott tied his season low with 188 passing yards against the Broncos in Week 8. The Cardinals have allowed 234.9 passing yards per game, the 8th-most in the NFL this season (Next Gen Stats).

CeeDee Lamb was the focal point of the passing attack last week, drawing 10 targets and catching seven for 74 yards. He also saw three red-zone looks (two in the end zone) and had three additional targets wiped out by penalties, continuing to dominate opportunity even in a poor offensive showing. He will bounce back.

Lamb has averaged a 27% target share the last two weeks. He also is seeing more downfield targets (21% deep target share).

Last 10 home games...Lamb has hit 88-plus yards seven times.

Kyler Murray has thrown for 2-plus TDs twice this season. Those also were the two games which Marvin Harrison Jr. scored. The matchup is too good to overthink. MHJ is hitting paydirt on Monday Night.

Worth noting that with with Kyler Murray at quarterback (Weeks 1-5), 46.4% of the Cardinals' total targets to wide receivers and 58.1% of their WR air yards went to Marvin Harrison Jr.

In Weeks 6-7 with Jacoby Brissett running the offense, Harrison earned just 25.0% of the team's WR targets (fewer than Zay Jones or Michael Wilson) and 36.9% of the air yards. Harrison caught 20 of 32 targets for 306 yards and 2 touchdowns with Murray at QB compared to 4 of 8 targets for 90 yards with Brissett (Next Gen Stats).

Not to say that the bet feels too different with Brissett instead of Kyler just because of how bad this Cowboys defense. Harrison barely played in the first game with Brissett (concussion).

With Brissett starting, tease Cowboys ML with the game total OVER 43.5 (-105 DK).

No game Dallas has played this season has gone UNDER 45 total points.

Props:

Full MNF Card:

  • Cowboys ML with line teased to over 43.5.


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