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NFL Monday Night Football Betting Primer: Eagles vs. Bears Picks

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Week 3 closes with the Philadelphia Eagles traveling to Soldier Field, where they will face third-string Chicago Bears QB Case Keenum due to injuries to Caleb Williams (hamstring) and Tyson Bagent (concussion). Bears HC Ben Johnson has never coached a game with a backup QB (Jared Goff stayed healthy during his entire tenure in Detroit).

Philadelphia is 2-0 to start 2026 but hasn’t been covered as a favorite in either game (a 2-point win over Washington, a 4-point win at Tennessee); teams that narrowly win these games can sometimes be overrated. That’s clearly baked into the 4.5-point line (along with the Eagles playing on the road).

Meanwhile, Chicago was upset at home by Minnesota (Brian Flores blitz blender) as a favorite in Week 2 (3-9) after opening the season with a wild shootout win over Carolina.

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NFL Monday Night Football Betting Primer: Eagles vs. Bears Picks

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Under 41.5

Trends

  • PHI current streaks (heading into Week 3): SU win streak now 2 games, but ATS non-cover streak now 4 games dating back to last season (failed to cover -7, won by 4 on a late TD); has gone OVER in both 2026 games so far.
  • CHI current streaks (heading into Week 3): fresh SU win/ATS cover/Over streak SNAPPED - lost outright at home to Minnesota (3-9) as 4.5-pt favorites in Week 2, one of the week’s biggest upsets.
  • PHI as a road favorite has been 12-6 ATS (66.7%) since 2024 - down from 12-5 (70.6%) after failing to cover as a road favorite at Tennessee in Week 2.
  • The road team has covered in 5 of the Eagles’ last 6 games - worth weighing since it pointed toward Philadelphia covering again this week.
  • CHI’s home ATS number just took a hit: 12-7-1 full-season ATS (Home 7-3-1) after losing ATS as a home favorite to Minnesota in Week 2 - down from 12-6-1/7-2-1. Specifically, as a home favorite since 2024, Chicago is now 6-2 ATS, down from a much stronger 6-1 (85%) before that loss.
  • CHI’s home total split also flipped: 7-9 O/U at home since 2024 (down from 7-8) after the MIN game closed 48.5 and finished 12, a big Under.
  • Eight of the Eagles' last 12 games have gone UNDER the total points line (the three overs coming versus NFC East division rival Washington and the OVER last week versus TEN).
  • The Eagles are 22-5-2 ATS when their defense has allowed fewer than 20 points since the start of 2024 (75%). The Bears’ implied team total is 18.5 points (-120).

Injuries

 

Overall

The market seems to overwhelmingly favor Philadelphia, given Chicago’s quarterback situation. 66% of the bets are on Philly (58% of the money).

But I’ll admit the Ben Johnson’s run game makes me a little nervous, since Chicago’s offense ran ALL over the Eagles’ defense on the road last season (more than 250 rushing yards).

Per Next Gen Stats: The Bears offense rushed for 268 yards on designed runs in their victory over the Eagles on Black Friday, their most in a game this season. Across those 42 designed carries, the Bears recorded 91 yards before contact and 177 yards after contact, both season highs. Their ball carriers forced 9 missed tackles combined, tied for their season-high on such runs, with D'Andre Swift forcing five and Kyle Monangai four. Swift recorded 95 yards after contact and 45 yards after missed tackles, both his season highs. Swift and Kyle each ran for over 125 yards.

With a backup QB, it seems more likely than not that Chicago’s path to victory will be through their ground game.

Eagles’ run defense has been a bit shaky through two games against some lackluster offenses like the Commanders/Titans.

Versus those teams, the Eagles now rank:

  • 9th most rushing yards allowed.
  • 5th-highest run rate faced.
  • 8th-highest EPA/rush allowed.

And Philly (as alluded to the top) hasn’t exactly dominated inferior teams to open the year. They let Washington hang around, and arguably should have lost last week on the road versus the Titans. I find it interesting that Philly was laying a TD versus the Titans on the road last week…and it’s just 4.5 points this week versus a third-string QB on the road.

Obviously, it’s tough to trust the Eagles’ offense that ranks 25th in first downs and has been up-and-down through two games. The run-RB rushing attack has mostly been non-existent, with only one massive run through two games by Saquon Barkley. 22nd overall in rushing success rate.

All in all, the Eagles’ rushing game has seen its collective rushing efficiency decrease from 4.3 yards per designed run in 2025 to 3.5 in 2026 (NGS).

“Trust” doesn’t easily come to mind with either team, with the Eagles’ defense probably being the most trustworthy of the bunch. Therefore, I am leaning heavily into the UNDER here even after Philly has squeaked two overs by game totals of 44 and 46 points thus far in 2026.

Eight of the Eagles' last 12 games have gone UNDER the total points line (the three overs coming versus NFC East division rival Washington and the OVER last week versus TEN).

As for props, be on the hunt for looking UNDERs on the Bears’ pass-catchers. Kalif Raymond is my target. We have a brand new QB under center that might not favor Raymond as much as Caleb Williams did through the first 2 games. So although Raymond has 13 catches through two games, this number seems destined to regress (as it already started declining from Week 1 to Week 2). Raymond is seeing all underneath stuff, recording the second-most receptions (11 on 12 targets) and third-most receiving yards (84) among wide receivers on targets short of 10 air yards. His 61 yards after catch on those targets are one shy of Jaxon-Smith Njigba for the position lead. Regression is likely to come crashing down versus a top Eagles’ secondary that has allowed the 5th-fewest yards to WRs this season.

You couldn’t pay him to take an over on a Zach Ertz receiving yards prop. Fresh off a December 2025 ACL injury, he re-signed with the Eagles after the injury to Dallas Goedert. No idea what shape he is in, or what role he will play in Week 3 (if any at all). Process says UNDER all the way. Remember this is NOT the same Eagles offense he is coming back to.

As for TDs…you want to be on Philly’s side here in case the Bears offense goes belly up with a 3rd-string QB.

I think we should see plenty of rookie WR Makai Lemon in this game. He missed a lot of training camp with an injury, and the Goedert injury has just opened up targets over the middle of the field. Lemon was second on the team in routes last week (33) and has averaged 2 catches/game thus far. Also don’t think it’s nothing that Lemon was the tackler on Jalen Hurts’ almost pick-six. Coaches like that hustle from young players, so I think Lemon could be rewarded as such with some additional schemed looks his way.

Props

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