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NFL Monday Night Football Betting Primer: Giants vs. Rams Picks

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The bright lights of Monday Night Football come to Hollywood. The New York Giants - fresh off a big home win over the Dallas Cowboys - are riding high. Meanwhile, the Rams are licking their wounds (and adjusting their clocks) after a big defeat in Australia. And to add insult to injury, they also lost star EDGE rusher Myles Garrett. Keep reading this week’s NFL Monday Night Football betting primer for the best ways to tackle this game from a betting perspective.

The market is expecting the Rams to bounce back versus Big Blue as touchdown “home” favorites. But we all know the Rams don’t “have” a real home-field advantage.

And the Giants have been in this spot before. Just last season, we saw New York counted out as underdogs just to cover on the road. But they haven’t won much, going just 1-5 on the road under quarterback Jaxson Dart. That said, this is a homecoming of sorts for the Giants’ second-year quarterback. Per NFL Next Gen Stats (NGS), Sunday’s game in Los Angeles will be Dart’s first appearance in the city since his freshman year at USC, prior to transferring to Ole Miss.

While road games haven’t worked out well for Dart, he has shined brightest under the big lights. Dart has a 114.5 passer rating in three career primetime starts, the highest primetime passer rating by any quarterback in NFL history (minimum three games). Dart has thrown six touchdowns with zero turnovers across those primetime appearances (vs. DAL, vs. PHI, @ NE). And last Sunday night, he looked like he was in full command of the Giants’ offense.

Either way, this matchup is primed to create an environment for scoring.

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NFL Monday Night Football Betting Primer: Giants vs. Rams Picks

New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Over 48 Points (-110)

Trends

  • Rams ATS as home favorite since 2023: 10-8.
  • Rams O/U 2025-26 combined: 12-9 (slight OVER lean).
  • Giants ATS as road underdog since 2023: 9-14.
  • Giants O/U 2025-26 combined: 12-6 - a strong OVER trend against the 48-point total.
  • The Giants are on a clean three-game streak across all three markets - straight up (SU) wins, ATS covers, and OVERS - dating back to 12/28/25 and extended by the Week 1 upset of Dallas.
  • The Rams have failed to cover in four straight games and are on a two-game SU losing streak (NFC Conference Championship loss + Week 1).
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, the Giants have lost each of their last 12 games as road underdogs.
  • Per DraftKings Sportsbook, eight of the Rams’ last 10 games have gone OVER the total, including six of the last seven games.
  • New York went 6-3 to the over/under on the road last season.
  • Jaxson Dart’s only road win in his NFL career came in the Pacific Time Zone (34-10 at the Raiders), going 0-5 in road games in all other time zones, per NGS.

Injuries

 

Overall

Los Angeles has the talent and the true bounce-back setup after an embarrassing Week 1 loss under adverse circumstances. But I think the “bounce back” will come more in the form of offensive production, not necessarily defensive. Now they don’t have Myles Garrett or Jared Verse to bolster their pass rush. I guess they will be getting Aaron Donald back, but it remains to be seen how effective he will be after coming out of retirement.

Therefore, I lean toward the total here in the dome. One of the Giants’ starting cornerbacks, Deonte Banks, might not play.

In Week 1, these two defenses combined for bottom-five marks in third-down conversion rate. The Dallas offense converted 73% of its third downs versus New York. The Giants just happened to be better against Dallas’ defense, converting 82% of their third downs. And had it not been for a Javonte Williams taunting penalty, the game would have gone OVER the 48.5-point total.

Given that both teams are already coming off primetime UNDERS, regression to the mean seems inevitable. New York allowed Dallas to score touchdowns on all of their red-zone possessions, and allowed the seventh-highest expected points added (EPA)/pass attempt.

And I’m still not completely sold on either run defense.

The Rams’ defense finished 29th in rushing EPA and 28th in pressure rate in Week 1. Expect a full workload for Cam Skattebo, who earned 18 carries in the Giants’ first game. He has seen no fewer than 15 carries in any game that he has started and finished dating back to Dart’s first start (Week 4, 2025).

Skattebo will see a lot of fullback Patrick Ricard’s backside in this matchup.

Per NGS, the Giants used multiple running backs on just 0.8% of plays last season, but after Ricard, they did so on 48.5% of plays in Week 1. They called run plays on 47.1% of offensive snaps, including 69.4% with two backs.

In Week 1 against the 49ers, the Rams faced two or more running backs on 51.6% of plays and allowed 115 rushing yards, their most in a game since Week 17, 2017. They conceded 5.5 yards per carry, their most in a game since Week 14 of 2023 (minimum five carries) against Ricard and the Ravens.

There are clear pathways through which both offenses can succeed.

Blake Corum generated both of the Rams’ explosive runs in Week 1 against the 49ers, rushing for 54 yards on 10 carries, while Kyren Williams rushed 11 times for 41 yards and a touchdown.

Since the start of last season, Corum has averaged more yards per carry than Williams while generating one fewer explosive run on 115 fewer carries. Corum’s 16.1% explosive run rate trails only De’Von Achane (16.5%) among running backs with at least 100 carries since last season.

We bet the OVER on Corum’s rushing prop in Week 1, and he knocked it out of the park. Let’s run it back. Again, I’m still not convinced this is an elite Giants run defense. Corum has exceeded 45.5 rushing yards in seven of his last 10 games.

Both of these running back bets are 5-star plays on the prop bet cheat sheet for Week 2.

Considering the Rams project to be a split backfield, Williams' rushing attempts prop is always very juicy at 13.5 carries. The Rams’ No. 1 RB has surpassed 13.5 carries only three times in his last 12 games in 2025 (25%).

Puka Nacua fell just short of a red-zone touchdown in Week 1, being tackled at the 1-yard line. Think he’ll find a way to score in Week 2 at home. Odds are Matthew Stafford won’t have two games in a row without a passing score after the Giants allowed two to Dak Prescott.

Props

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