NFL Monday Night Football Betting Primer Picks & Player Prop Bets: Falcons vs. Eagles
Welcome to the final NFL betting article for Week 2 from BettingPros! I'm Andrew Erickson, your guide to Week 2’s final game. In this special MNF edition, we're laser-focused on the highly anticipated Falcons vs. Eagles showdown as the second week of the NFL comes to a close with Monday Night Football. From expert insights on the spread and total to can't-miss player props, I'll help you craft the perfect single-game parlay to get your season started with a bang.
This is just a taste of what's coming when the FULL BettingPros Week 3 Primer drops later this week.
Get ready, folks-it's time to place those BETS. Let’s dive into my top picks and player prop bets for Monday Night Football: Falcons vs. Eagles.
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Monday Night Football Betting Primer
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Atlanta Falcons
Sides:
- The Falcons are 5-11-2 ATS since the start of 2023.
- Better at home, finishing at 5-4 straight up.
- However, the underdogs have won nine of the Falcons' last 13 games.
- The Eagles are 45% ATS as a favorite since the start of 2023.
- 1-7 ATS overall in their last eight games played.
- But at home in their last 19 games - 12-7 ATS as home favorites.
- The Eagles are 4-9-2 ATS when their defense allowed 20 or more points since the start of last season.
- In 2023, they covered just three spreads when they allowed 20 points on defense.
- The Falcons have lost each of their last six road openers.
- In each of the Eagles’ last four games, their opponents have scored first.
Totals:
- Each of the last six games between the Falcons and Eagles has gone UNDER the total points line.
- The Eagles are 10-9 toward since the start of 2023. But they went 3-8 toward the over on the road. The majority of their shootouts and OVERs came at home.
- Both teams were great in the red zone in their Week 1 matchups. Atlanta allowed zero red-zone TDs, while Philly allowed just one on a combined six red-zone drives.
Overall:
Last week, I preached caution about being too high on the Falcons. Remember, the starters did not play together at all during the preseason. It's a brand-new quarterback under center in Kirk Cousins (coming off the Achilles injury), with all new receivers and a new play-caller.
My reservations about Atlanta turned out to be the right call, as the Falcons' offense looked far from a finished product. Cousins was not attacking downfield whatsoever, and the passing game lacked any type of creativity (play action, motion, etc.). It was pistol formation to mitigate Cousins' lack of mobility in the pocket.
But I also didn't think it was all bad. The first drive was pretty promising-a 12-play drive that resulted in a field goal.
And every offensive performance is relative. Again, a work-in-progress Falcons offense may have just played the best defense they will face all season. Even if this offense doesn't turn into the Greatest Show on Turf, I don't think Week 1 indicates how they will play for the entire 2024 season. Again, the biggest issue with Cousins (aside from the lack of mobility and deep ball attempts) was the interceptions.
This matchup is interesting (aside from it being a prime-time Cousins game) because, for the second straight season, Cousins will play the Eagles on the road in an island Week 2 contest.
The Vikings were also 6.5-point road underdogs with a game total of 49 points, which is eerily similar to the spread and total of this 2024 Week 2 matchup.
Minnesota covered, and the game went over. Consider me skeptical that Cousins, in his second game as the Falcons quarterback, will do this again.
The Eagles’ defense was ripped by the Green Bay Packers’ explosive plays in Week 1. The poor field conditions played a role, but nothing about Atlanta's Week 1 performance suggests they will be able to attack downfield.
Given the strengths of the Eagles DL, I think it's an 0-2 start for Atlanta straight up and ATS. The Eagles' offense has too many weapons for them to stop, and it will take more than one week for the Falcons offense to start clicking.
Take the Eagles at home -5.5. Again, this is the same line as last season (when Cousins was 100% healthy playing in the Vikings offense littered with playmakers) after an embarrassing Week 1 loss.
Cousins covered last year because "their offense is good enough to keep this game close versus an overrated Eagles defense." I'm not sure either of those aspects are true this time around.
Props:
- In Raheem Morris' post-game presser, he spoke about how the offense didn't get the ball to Drake London enough. He drew coverage from Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr. and was a non-factor.
- DeVonta Smith has scored a touchdown in four of the Eagles’ last five games at Lincoln Financial Field.
- Jalen Hurts has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Eagles’ last six Monday regular season games.
- Darnell Mooney is the Falcons' deep threat. With targets likely being forced to Bijan Robinson and London, Mooney might be entirely left out of the game plan. Under 3.5 catches. He's on a 7-game streak of going under 3.5 receptions.
- Kirk Cousins can’t throw downfield. RB Checkdowns will be plenty, just like we saw in Week 1. Bijan Robinson can get 30 yards on one catch.
- DeVonta Smith has gone over 71.5 receiving yards in 70 percent of his last 10 games. With him taking a full-time role in the slot, he should avoid the Falcons' top CB, A.J. Terrell. Not to mention, A.J. Brown’s absence should open up the target floodgates for Smitty to FEAST.
My Picks: