NFL Monday Night Football Primer: Picks & Player Prop Bets (Week 5)
Welcome to the final NFL betting article for Week 5 from BettingPros! I'm Andrew Erickson, your guide to Week 5's Monday Night Football matchup between the Saints and Chiefs. In this special “island” MNF edition, we're laser-focused on the highly anticipated showdown as the fifth week of the NFL comes to a close. From expert insights on the spread and total to can't-miss player props, I'll help you craft the perfect single-game parlay to cap off your week.
Get ready, folks-it's time to place those BETS. Let's dive into my top picks and player prop bets for Monday Night Football. Upset special? You bet!
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Monday Night Football Primer
New Orleans Saints @ Kansas City Chiefs
Sides:
- The Chiefs have covered the spread in eight of their last 10 games.
- The Chiefs have won each of their last 10 games.
- The underdogs have covered the spread in 12 of the Chiefs' last 17 games.
- The Saints have covered the spread in five of their last six games.
- The Saints have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as road underdogs.
- Derek Carr as an underdog ATS (57%).
Totals:
- Eight of the Chiefs' last 11 games have gone UNDER the total points line (10 of the last 13).
- Since the start of 2023, the Chiefs have not allowed a team to score 27 points against them.
- They are undefeated when they hold teams to 17 points or less.
- KC is 2-0 toward the over at home this season, with games averaging 49 points.
- Seven of the Chiefs’ last eight Monday games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Five of the Saints' last seven games have gone OVER the total points line
- New Orleans has the No. 1 red-zone defense this season. The Chiefs rank 7th in red zone defense.
Overall:
How will the Chiefs offense adjust after losing their best offensive weapon in WR Rashee Rice? Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy are slated to take on bigger roles, but the remaining WRs on the depth chart (Justin Watson, JuJu Smith-Schuster) do not inspire confidence that KC will get back on track offensively quickly. They've got a bye week coming to figure out a season-long plan, but I imagine there will be growing pains fully on display Monday night.
Also, the 2024 Chiefs have been sun-running–covering spreads and winning games by the slimmest of margins all four weeks this season.
Come to think, this Chiefs team has won by the slightest margins the last four weeks - by a toe in Week 1, by a Harrison Butker field goal in Week 2, by a pass interference call in Week 3 and in a comeback victory against the Chargers who were without starting tackles a week ago.
Now, great teams find a way to win. KC deserves the credit for finding ways to win even when they aren't at their best. That's been the Chiefs mantra since last season. But for how long can they keep winning by these slim margins?
I was very much open to the idea the Chargers could pull the upset last week, but their offensive injuries pulled me away.
But this week, I'm calling the upset special with the Saints winning on the road Monday night. Derek Carr has played in KC more than enough times-to some success-that the intimidation factor of playing the Super Bowl champions won't phase New Orleans.
Keep in mind that Carr played at KC in 2022. He lost by one point. The former Raiders quarterback is 2-2 ATS in the last four matchups at KC.
He's gone into KC before and won. I think he can do it again with this new, exciting offense in New Orleans. Do you know which team playing Monday night ranks first in points per game this season? Spoiler ... not the Chiefs.
The safest pick is just to take Saints +5.5. The Saints have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as road underdogs. The underdogs have covered the spread in 12 of the Chiefs' last 17 games.
But given how the Chiefs have won their first four games up to this point, I think an upset is brewing. The best bang for your buck is the Saints on the moneyline.
As for the total, under for me at 43 points. The Chiefs have been an "under" team dating back to last season as their offense has gone through a transition phase. Patrick Mahomes has the lowest average air yard per attempt (5.1) in the NFL per Next Gen Stats. Not a ringing endorsement for points galore.
Conversely, in this matchup, I don't love Derek Carr's big-play threat, Rashid Shaheed. Even though his role as a one-trick pony has changed in 2024, his zone/man splits remain undefeated, projecting his spiked weeks. Against KC, it's not a Shaheed smash spot, given that they rank 28th in zone coverage.
Player Props:
I'd look for the over on Chris Olave's number based on Shaheed's projection for a quieter game. He has gone over 59.5 receiving yards in three straight games and seven of his last 11 (63%).
JuJu Smith-Schuster is projected to take on Rice's role in the Chiefs offense in the short term. Therefore, Justin Watson's role shouldn't change too drastically. He may see more targets, but he hasn't been much of a target-earner while being a member of the Chiefs. All of last season, he had more than 2.5 catches in just four of 20 games played (20%). This season, he is 100% UNDER 2.5 receptions.
For long-shot TD props, I am looking at tight end Juwan Johnson. Taysom Hill likely will miss this game with fractured ribs, opening the opportunity for Johnson to seize a larger role in the red zone. The Chiefs have struggled against tight ends this season, allowing the most yards, targets, and catches to the position.
Johnson had three targets last week but had another long 29-yard catch wiped off the board because of a penalty. He led the Saints TE room in routes run.
My Picks: