NFL Monday Night Football Primer & Picks: Week 4

For the second time this season, we get a double dose of Monday Night Football. First up, the Miami Dolphins take on the New York Jets in an AFC East clash where explosive speed meets defensive grit. Then, the nightcap brings us the Denver Broncos vs. the Cincinnati Bengals. Two games, two sets of betting markets, and endless ways to build Same Game Parlays to finish Week 4 strong.

Get ready, folks – it’s time to place those bets. And like Joey P always says...don't be a tool. Use the tools (like the BettingPros prop bet cheat sheet).

Let’s dive into my top picks, best bets, and player props for Monday Night Football.

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Monday Night Football Betting Primer (Week 4 Doubleheader)

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets - Monday, 7:15 PM ET (ESPN)

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Jets +2.5

Confidence:  ★★★ (3 out of 5)

Why:

• The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 10 home games (3-5 ATS at home last season, 2-6 ATS as home favorite since start of 2024).
• Aaron Glenn > Mike McDaniel

Trends

Sides:

• The Dolphins have lost 15 of their last 23 games.
• The Dolphins have lost 18 of their last 20 games as underdogs.
• The Dolphins have won each of their last nine home games against the Jets.
• Miami is sub-25% ATS as an underdog dating back to last season and has gone 3-13 overall since 2023. They are 5-14  as an underdog in their last 19 applicable games.
• The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 13 games as road underdogs.
• The Dolphins have covered the spread in 16 of their last 20 games against teams with a losing record.
• The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 10 home games (3-5 ATS at home last season, 2-6 ATS as home favorite since start of 2024).

Totals:

• Eight of the Jets' last 10 games have gone OVER the total points line.
• Miami's defense has allowed 31 points in back-to-back-back weeks to start the 2025 season (Colts/Patriots/Bills).
• Each of the Dolphins' last seven home games has gone OVER the total points line.

Overall

If Miami is ever going to win a game this season, you think it would be against the 0-3 Jets. We know the Dolphins don’t beat good teams or beat teams after the calendar turns to November. But I like what I am seeing from Aaron Glenn’s team. They play hard for their coach, and that is reflected in their 2-1 ATS record so far through three weeks. They have lost two close games but have scored more PPG (23) than the Dolphins (18.7).

Justin Fields will return as QB1 after missing last week with a concussion (practiced in full). This Miami team is worse than past versions, as they have already shown they cannot beat bad teams at home (Patriots in Week 2). Given their recent track record at home, I like the Jets on the road. The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 10 home games (3-5 ATS at home last season, 2-6 ATS as home favorite since start of 2024).

We saw what the Jets could do against a bad Steelers defense in Week 1. I think they can duplicate similar efforts in Week 4 against an even worse Dolphins defense that rolls out of bed, allowing 30-plus points.

Prop Angles

Garrett Wilson has eight consecutive games with 50+ receiving yards entering Week 4.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Dolphins’ defense allowed the 8th-most yards before contact per carry to running backs (1.1 yards). This comes after the Dolphins were successful in getting push against the run game last season, limiting running backs to just 0.5 yards before contact per carry (2nd-fewest). The Jets running backs have averaged 1.2 yards before contact per carry this season, the 7th-highest mark in the league. Last season, the Jets struggled to get push up front in the run game, as their running backs averaged 0.8 yards before contact per carry, the 9th-lowest mark in the league.

Breece Hall’s rushing prop this week is too low. 56.5 rushing yards. Every RB that Miami has faced has gone for at least 54 yards. His projection is north of 55 yards across multiple sources. Take the over.

Erickson’s Props:

• Breece Hall: OVER 56.5 rushing yards

Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals - Monday, 8:15 PM ET (ABC/ESPN2)

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Broncos -7.5 (lean over 44.5)

Confidence: ★★★★ (4 out of 5)

Why:

• Sean Payton is 12-4-1 ATS in Week 4.
• The Broncos are 9-2 ATS as a favorite at home.

Trends

Sides:

Totals:

Overall

A battle of two trends. The Close Your Eyes Special…that dates back 25 years. Teams coming off 30-point losses are 60% ATS. But who is the one HC that could potentially throw a wrench in those plans? Sean Payton. The Broncos HC tends to be lights out in Weeks 3-4. Last week was a push versus the Chargers. This week, we finally see the Broncos cover the spread. They tend to cover as favorites anyway, and nothing I saw from the Zac Taylor/Jake Browning in Minnesota suggests they will have more success here in Week 4 back on the road in a hostile environment.

Give me Denver -7.5. Week 4 Sean Payton and Broncos as heavy favorites (after a loss) are lethal combination ATS.

As for the total, I sneakily like the over here. I expect Denver to score at will. And the Broncos defense…I think Cincy can generate some offensive production (a lot more than last week). According to Next Gen Stats…Jake Browning has completed 6 of 8 passes for 67 yards (8.4 per attempt) and three touchdowns against man coverage this season, bringing his career TD-INT ratio against man to 10-0. This season, Browning has faced man coverage at the lowest rate in the NFL (15.9%); against zone, he has completed 34 of 51 passes for 314 yards, 0 TD, and 5 INT. The Broncos have played man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL (51.2%). When doing so, they have not allowed a touchdown pass on 64 dropbacks, also recording nine sacks (3 more than any other team).

CB Patrick Surtain can’t cover both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

If you don’t want the hook with the touchdown for Denver…bring it down to Denver -2.5 and tease the total to over 41.5 for -105 odds. Or alternatively, Broncos -6.5 (if you think it’s a TD win) with a gimme over of 34.5 points (-105).

Prop Angles

Bo Nix has thrown three or more touchdowns in three of the Broncos’ last four games as favorites. In 7 of his last 10 games as a favorite, he has thrown for at least two passing TDs.

I also mentioned this last week, that Nix does not run nearly as much when he is favored compared to being an underdog.

Marvin Mims had nearly 100 air yards last week, but he and Nix just didn’t connect. But the one catch for 4 yards doesn’t tell the full story.

Per Next Gen Stats…Mims’ deep target percentage (20+ yards downfield) has increased from 19.2% last season to 40.0% this season through three games. Despite this shift, Mims has caught just 1 of his four deep targets for 23 yards and a touchdown in 2025. Last season against the Bengals, Mims was targeted deep twice, catching both targets for 76 yards and 2 touchdowns, including the last-second score to force overtime.

I like the over on his yardage and his anytime TD odds at 3-1.

Tee Higgins will see a lot more targets in Week 4 than last week. Noah Fant will probably miss this game with a concussion. He led the team in targets in the first half last week. Surtain will cover Chase a lot.

Higgins went NUCLEAR vs Denver last year (11 catches for 131 yards and 3 TDs), so consider the overs on his props this week as layups.

Erickson’s Props:

• Bo Nix: Over 1.5 passing TDs
• Marvin Mims: Over 28.5 receiving yards
• Marvin Mims: Anytime TD (+390)
• Tee Higgins: Over 51.5 receiving yards

Full MNF Card:

• Jets +2.5
• Broncos -7.5
• CIN/DEN over 44.5