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NFL Monday Night Football Primer & Picks: Week 6

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A double dose of Monday-night action closes Week 6. In Atlanta, Josh Allen and the 4-1 Bills look to keep rolling against a well-rested Falcons team trying to prove it can hang with elite competition. Meanwhile, in Washington, Caleb Williams brings his playmaking in a rematch of last year’s Hail Mary against the Commanders. From expert insights on spreads and totals to can't-miss prop values, I'll break down both games so you can finish your betting week strong.

Get ready, folks - it's time to place those bets. And like Joey P always says…don’t be a tool. Use the tools (like the BettingPros prop bet cheat sheet).

Let's dive into my top picks, best bets, and player props for Monday Night Football.

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Monday Night Football Betting Primer (Week 6 Doubleheader)

Buffalo Bills @ Atlanta Falcons

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Bills’ Team Total over 27.5

Confidence: ★★★★ (4 out of 5)

Why:

  • Falcons play better at home than on the road
  • Buffalo has scored 30-plus points in 78% of their last 18 contests.
  • The Falcons/Bills defenses rank 1st/2nd, respectively, in fewest pass completions/attempts allowed this season
    • More indicative of teams attacking these defenses on the ground.

Trends

Sides:

  • Bills have scored 30+ points in 14 of their previous 18 games with their starters playing.
  • The Bills have won seven of their last eight games following a loss (3-1 ATS).
  • The Bills have covered the spread in 13 of their last 16 games.
  • The Bills have won 25 of their last 32 games.
  • The Buffalo Bills are 26-9 as a favorite since the start of last season, but just 17-18 against the spread (ATS).
  • The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
  • The Falcons have won the first quarter in six of their last seven games as home underdogs.
  • The Falcons are 3-1 ATS with a rest advantage since 2024.
  • The Falcons are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 home games as underdogs and 11-7 as home favorites on the ML.
    • They are underdogs at home for just the second time since 2024. (0-1 ATS).

Totals:

  • Each of the Falcons’ last nine home games against AFC opponents has gone UNDER the total points line.
  • Five of the Falcons' last seven home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • The Bills are 10-4 O/U since the start of 2024 (50+ points per game).

Overall:

The Bills will play on the road for the first time since Week 2 (Jets) on MNF. And it will be against the Falcons, who are allowing the fewest yards per game this season (3rd-lowest yards per play allowed). Atlanta is also coming off a bye week, but that trend doesn’t hold as much weight with Buffalo coming off a loss. Essentially a wash.

And I think the Falcons’ “perceived” top-tier defense is being vastly over-inflated. They have faced Baker Mayfield, J.J. McCarthy, Bryce Young, and Marcus Mariota. Aside from Mayfield…it’s hardly been a Murderer’s Row of QBs. Give me the over on Buffalo’s team total at 27.5 points.

Prop Angles:

Bijan Robinson has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Falcons’ last five home games.

The Bills have allowed the most rushing attempts of 10-plus yards this season. Take the over on Robinson’s longest rush attempt (15.5 yards).

Drake London has gone over 5.5 receptions in both home games this season for Atlanta. With Darnell Mooney out, London should remain the focal point in the Falcons’ passing game.

Per Next Gen Stats…London has averaged 8.7 air yards per target, 2.3 air yards below his previous career average (11.0 air yards per target) and the 11th-lowest among wide receivers with at least 25 targets. London has been targeted deep on just 5.4% of his routes, the lowest mark of his career. Consequently, London has averaged 3.3 yards after the catch per reception, the 2nd-highest mark of his career.

James Cook has rushed for 347 yards after contact, the 3rd-highest mark in the league. Cook has forced 28 total missed tackles this season, tied for the 5th-most in the league. His 192 yards after forcing a missed tackle is the 3rd-highest total in the NFL. Entering Week 6, the Falcons have the 2nd-lowest missed tackle rate in the league (10.0%), a 4.0% decrease from their missed tackle rate last season (14.0%, 6th-highest). Atlanta has also been great vs RBs in the passing game (<10 receiving yards per game). Cook is under 16.5 receiving yards in 10 of his last 15 games (under in 3/5 this season). His season-long average is boosted by his 58 yards in Week 1. His median receiving yards this season are 10 yards.

Erickson’s Props:

Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders

BettingPros Consensus Odds:

Erickson’s Pick: Bears Team Total over 22.5 points

(Lean Commanders/full game total over)

Confidence:

Why:

  • Bears don't perform well as underdogs
    • Caleb Williams is 7-7 ATS as an underdog.
    • 3-6-1 ATS as road underdog (and road in general).
  • Commanders are great at home – 8-2 ATS since the start of last season.

Trends

Sides:

  • The Commanders have scored the first touchdown in each of their last seven games as favorites.
  • The Commanders have won each of their last five home games.
  • The Commanders have covered the spread in each of their last five home games.
  • The Commanders have covered the spread as favorites in 9 of their last 14 games.
  • The Bears have lost the first half in 10 of their last 11 road games.
  • The Bears have lost 12 of their last 15 games.
  • The Bears are 15-13-1 ATS and 13-16 straight up in their last 29 games.
  • The home team has covered the spread in 17 of the Bears' last 25 games.
  • The Bears have lost 10 of their last 11 road games following a win.

Totals:

  • Six of the Commanders’ last seven home games have gone OVER the total points line.
  • When Washington allows 20 points or fewer on defense since the start of last season, they are 10-4 toward the under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 23-5 toward the OVER.
  • The Bears are 15-11-1 under the point total in their last 27 games.
  • The Bears are 6-4 O/U at home since 2024, and those games averaged under 42 points per game (PPG).

Overall:

Even coming off a bye week, I’m not sure the Chicago Bears’ defense has been totally fixed. They have been gashed by the run…and now face the league’s top rushing unit. I’d presume Ben Johnson spent the majority of the bye week looking to improve the offensive side of the ball. It’s also a revenge spot for Johnson, who got cooked by Jayden Daniels last season in the postseason.

Both offenses should score in this spot, but that’s not going unnoticed by the game total overall. The Bears’ team total is sitting at 22.5 points – a number they have hit in 3 of 4 games this year (25.2 average PPG).

And let’s not forget that Chicago HAD Washington last season on the road…before losing on that Hail Mary play. The game didn’t finish with a ton of points…but both teams had well over 300 yards of total offense.

I cited in my Sunday Night Football breakdown how well the Lions have performed with a rest advantage (12-0 O/U). Johnson played a role in that. I lean the game total over more than choosing sides. But my most confident bet is on the Bears’ team total.

Prop Angles:

Rome Odunze has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Bears’ last four games.

The post-bye rookie season bump. We see rookies with expanded roles after their team’s bye weeks. Ergo, I’d expect a bigger role for players like Luther Burden, Colston Loveland (if he plays), and Kyle Monangai. Take advantage of the prop markets anticipating role changes. Burden specifically should have a favorable matchup this week. Commanders are a slot-funnel defense, and Burden could/should take over starting slot duties at some point from veteran Olamide Zaccheaus.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt has been one of the league’s most efficient rushers this season. He has 80-plus rushing yards in both of Jayden Daniels’ two full starts this season. Bears have allowed all but one of the RBs they’ve faced to hit the OVER at lines north of 69.5 rushing yards. Rinse and repeat for Bill on Monday Night.

Erickson’s Props:

Full MNF Card:

  • Bills TT over 27.5 points
  • Bears TT over 22.5 points


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