NFL Monday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Saints vs. Buccaneers (Week 13)
On Monday night, the Saints and Buccaneers will square off in Tampa Bay. This game has major implications for the NFC South race. If New Orleans can pull off the road upset, they'll be within half a game of the division lead. If Tampa Bay wins, they'll open up a 1.5-game lead in the division.
With a spread of Tampa Bay -3.5 and a total in the game of 40.5, this should be a competitive and low-scoring game. This three-leg parlay offered on Draftkings has great value.
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Leg 1: Buccaneers ML (-185)
After coming into the season with high expectations, Tampa Bay has struggled this season. They sit at 5-6 – first place in their division, but well below where they thought they'd be. They're coming off a tough OT loss in Cleveland, and they'll be looking for a bounce back this week.
Despite their struggles this year, I think they get a much-needed win against the Saints this week. New Orleans has lost three of its last four games, with its only win coming against the shorthanded Rams at home. Tampa Bay's struggles this year create a great opportunity for a ML bet here, in a game where they're better on both sides of the ball.
I expect the Bucs to play a sound defensive game and play mistake-free offense. They should be coming in on a three-game win streak, and I think their poor record this year means the market is undervaluing the difference between them and the Saints.
Leg 2: Chris Olave 65+ Receiving Yards (+105)
While the Saints' passing offense has struggled at times this year, Chris Olave is posting an exceptional rookie season. Olave has posted at least 4 catches and at least 50 yards in nine of the Saints' last 10 games. He gets consistent target volume and has been able to turn it into production all year.
Against the Bucs, I expect Olave to post another big game. The Tampa Bay pass defense has struggled against their opponent’s top WR in recent weeks. Over their last three games, the top WR for their opponents (Cooper Kupp, DK Metcalf, and Amari Cooper) have combined for 21 catches, 292 yards, and a TD. Olave is talented enough to fit right in with these stat lines.
Given the correlation with the Buccaneers ML play – if the Bucs are up, the Saints will have to throw – this is an excellent leg to add in, given the price.
Leg 3: Both Teams U14.5 Points First Half (-200)
Both of these teams are in the bottom quarter of the NFL in first half points scored. The Saints average 9.0 points per first half while the Bucs average just 8.5. The Buccaneers also own a top-five first half defense – they allow just 7.7 points per first half this year. New Orleans' defense isn't quite as good in the first half, allowing 12.6 points per game, but given these teams' track record in the first half of games this year, I expect a low-scoring match at halftime.
With a total on the game of 40.5, it would be a surprise to see either team break 14.5 points in the first half. Both offenses have struggled at times this year, and both teams play conservatively in the first half. I expect this leg to hit with no problem.
Parlay Odds: +400
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