NFL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Commanders vs. Dolphins (Week 11)
The NFL heads to Santiago Bernabeu in Madrid, Spain for this week’s International Series game between the Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins.
There are a ton of ways for bettors to get in on the action for this contest. Here's a look at three NFL Week 11 best bets that stick out to me on Sunday morning.
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NFL Week 11 Best Bets: Commanders vs. Dolphins
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Dolphins Moneyline (-155)
One week in the NFL is sometimes enough to change one's perspective on a team, and arguably no team had a more impressive win in Week 10 than Miami's 30-13 victory over Buffalo.
The Dolphins shut the Bills out through three quarters for the first time since 2003. They now face a Commanders team that is amid the longest active losing streak in the league (five games).
Not only has Washington lost five straight, but each of the last four losses have been by 21+ points. The Commanders are 0-3 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) this year with Marcus Mariota under center. He has lost seven straight starts outright when listed as an underdog.
De’Von Achane 130+ Rushing + Receiving Yards (-101)
While this game takes place in Madrid, De'Von Achane could not have hand-picked a better defense to face this week than the Commanders.
Achane's 5.5 yards per rush are third-most among running backs, and he faces a Washington defense that has allowed the fourth-most yards per rush to the position since Week 6 (and the third-most yards overall this season).
I am backing Achane's rushing and receiving yards total with one of my best NFL player props this week, as he leads all Dolphins with 49 receptions. Meanwhile, the Commanders have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game to running backs since Week 4.
Achane is coming off a monster game against the Bills, where he totaled 195 yards after contact and forced a career-high 11 missed tackles. He is the only player with 700+ rushing and 300+ receiving yards this season. The Dolphins are 3-0 when he has more than 20 touches in a game.
Jacoby Croskey-Merritt Over 32.5 Rushing Yards (-109)
Jacory Croskey-Merritt has averaged three yards per rush since Week 6, which is the second-fewest among running backs. That is shocking since he led the league in that metric from Weeks 1-5.
There is no doubt that the game script has had something to do with Croskey-Merritt’s downturn, as the Commanders have lost four straight games by 21+ points.
Miami just held a fantastic Bills rushing offense to 87 yards and four yards per carry. But I am looking at the season-long view that says the Dolphins also have allowed the fourth-most yards per carry after contact (2.2), while Washington’s 2.5 yards per carry after contact average is the second-highest in the league. In addition, Washington’s 4.9 yards per rush average (sixth-highest) is a bad matchup for Miami’s 4.9 yards per rush average allowed (fifth-worst).
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01