NFL Parlay & Best Bets for Thanksgiving Day (Week 12)
Good food, time off, and family â what else could you want on Thanksgiving? Oh, right, football. If youâre planning to watch the games, hereâs a three-leg parlay to get you some exposure to all of Thursdayâs action. Hopefully, I can help you make a bit of extra dough right before Black Friday.
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#1. Bears at Lions: Cairo Santos o1.5 Field Goals | +110 at DK Sportsbook
Straight Bet Size: .5u
Thatâs right, weâre starting Thursday off with a kicker prop. Cairo Santos has knocked in at least two field goals in exactly half of his games this season, so heâs batting .500 against a line with implied odds of 47.6%. That isnât much value, but it is some.
But Iâm not picking Santos because of the math. Iâm picking him because the Lions donât play good defense and the Bears donât play good offense. Chicago will generate plenty of yards and drives against Detroitâs vulnerable defense, but they will also struggle to finish things off. While itâs true that no Andy Dalton-led drive has ended in a field goal this season (crazy, right?), that streak has to end eventually. Through Daltonâs nine starts for the Cowboys last year, Greg Zuerlein hit 19 field goals (2.1 per game).
The Bears scored three touchdowns against the Lions earlier this year, but they still needed Santos to bail them out with a field goal once. The Lions allow a league-high number of field goals per game (2.1), too. As a result, I expect Chicago to call Santosâ number at least twice in the rematch.
#2. Raiders at Cowboys: Dalton Schultz o47.5 Receiving Yards | -115 at DK Sportsbook
Straight Bet Size: .5u
Lots of Dalton discourse today. Schultz, the Cowboysâ starting tight end, has gone for at least 48 receiving yards in six of his 10 starts this season. Thatâs already a solid hit rate, but Schultz has a couple of other factors working in his favor here.
First, the Cowboys wonât have at least one of their starting wide receivers, Amari Cooper. The veteran wideout will have to miss this game due to the health and safety protocols. There is also a chance that CeeDee Lamb wonât clear the concussion protocol in time, although the recent news out of Dallas suggests that he has a good chance to do so.
Second, the Raiders have fared considerably worse against opposing tight ends than wideouts. They have allowed the third-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers (1,277) but the sixth-most to tight ends (667). They have also given up the third-most receptions (63) to the position.
#3. Bills at Saints: TreâQuan Smith o37.5 Receiving Yards | -115 at DK Sportsbook
Straight Bet Size: .5u
Our Thanksgiving slate will come to an end with a battle between the beleaguered Bills and the banged-up Saints. Both squads need a win to turn their seasons back in the right direction. While the books expect Buffalo to win this one handily, as the Bills are six-point favorites, I believe more betting value lies in the hands of New Orleansâ receiving corps.
TreâQuan Smith, a third-round pick in 2018, made a quiet return to New Orleansâ offense in Week 7. He caught just one of his three targets for 11 yards. But since then, Smith has caught at least three passes per game. He is averaging 48.5 receiving yards per game through that stretch. Notably, all four of those games came with Trevor Siemian under center. The journeyman quarterback appears to trust Smith.
Although Buffaloâs defense has been stingy against opposing wideouts, as they permit the fewest receiving yards per game to the position, they havenât been unbeatable lately. Corey Davis notched 93 receiving yards against them in Week 10. DeVante Parker went for 85 yards in Week 8, too. Smith doesnât need to have that big of a game to hit the over, and I have faith heâll do just enough to cash our parlay on Thursday night.
Total Odds: +634 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Parlay Bet Size: .5u
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.