NFL Player Prop Bets: Christmas (2021)
Once again, I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook for props because of the volume they have to choose from. Still, I suggest that you do some line shopping for more favorable player totals across multiple sportsbooks if you have time. For instance, finding a lower yardage number for a player prop you like enhances your odds of cashing the over. Conversely, if you want an under and find a higher yardage total, the same idea applies.
Let’s take a look at a few player props for Christmas that caught my attention.
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Jonathan Taylor Over 19.5-yard Longest Rush (-120)
First, allow me to address the elephant in the room. Unfortunately, the Colts will be without three starting linemen if right guard Mark Glowinski can’t test out of the reserve/COVID-19 list. Regardless, Jonathan Taylor is an explosive runner in an offense that runs at an above-average rate facing a defense prone to coughing up explosive runs.
According to Sharp Football Stats, when the offensive scoring margin is trailing by seven points to leading by seven points, the Colts run at the 13th-highest rate (44% versus 43% for the league average). The second-year back is a home-run carry waiting to happen. According to Pro Football Focus, Taylor has had the most 10-plus yard runs (42) and the most 15-plus yard runs (18). Conversely, according to Sharp Football Stats, the Cardinals allow the highest average explosive run rate (16%).
So, this match is made in heaven for Taylor gashing the Cardinals. Thus, I like his odds of having a run over 19.5 yards.
Zach Ertz Over 4.5 Receptions (+105)
Zach Ertz has a drool-inducing matchup as well. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Colts yield the most receiving yards (947), and the second-most targets (123), and receptions (89) to tight ends. Indy’s struggles defending tight ends were on full display last Saturday, coughing up six receptions on eight targets to Hunter Henry.
Meanwhile, Ertz is an ascending weapon in Arizona’s offense, catching five passes or more in three of his last four games, including the previous two weeks with Kyler Murray at quarterback. In addition, he’s a more significant part of the offense in the wake of DeAndre Hopkins’ knee injury knocking him out for the rest of the regular season.
According to Pro Football Focus, in Week 15, Ertz was second on the Cardinals in routes (48), targets (11), receptions (six), and receiving yards (74). Additionally, his targets amounted to a 26.8% target share. Putting that mark in perspective, according to Sports Info Solutions, Ertz’s target share last week would be the seventh-highest mark among qualified players this year. So, it’s a gaudy mark, suffice to say.
Now, facing a Colts’ defense getting torched by tight ends, he should ball out again. As a result, I like getting plus money to wager on Ertz hauling in more than 4.5 receptions.
Allen Lazard Anytime Touchdown/Green Bay to Win (+260)
According to our consensus line, the Packers are -7.5-point favorites and a -360 moneyline favorite. So, first, I expect them to win outright, covering one leg of this pick. Second, the Packers have an implied total of 27.0 points. Thus, they’re a good bet to score a few touchdowns.
Therefore, I’m looking across their offense for options that make sense to reach pay dirt. Big-bodied wideout Allen Lazard is a reasonable consideration to score a touchdown. The Packers pass at the eighth-highest rate (57% compared to a 52% league average) in the red zone, according to Sharp Football Stats.
Unfortunately, Green Bay is without two of their integral passing-game options in the red zone, Randall Cobb and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. According to the FantasyPros red zone stats, Cobb has had the second-most red-zone targets (14) for the Packers, and MVS vacates seven. However, Lazard is already a frequently-targeted option, netting 11 red-zone targets. As a result, it’s reasonable to speculate he’ll soak up some of the vacated red-zone targets. Moreover, Lazard has caught four touchdowns in the red zone. I think there are enough reasons here to sprinkle a small wager on a tantalizing +260 line.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.