NFL Player Prop Bets: Divisional Round Sunday (2021)
Once again, I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook for props because of the volume they have to choose from. Still, I suggest that you do some line shopping for more favorable player totals across multiple sportsbooks if you have time. For instance, finding a lower yardage number for a player prop you like enhances your odds of cashing the over. Conversely, if you want an under and find a higher yardage total, the same idea applies.
Let’s take a look at a few player props for Divisional Round Sunday that caught my attention.
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Matthew Stafford Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-220)
Matthew Stafford wasn’t flawless in 2021. However, he was second with 41 passing touchdowns. Additionally, he passed for more than 1.5 touchdowns in 14 of 18 games. Stafford also shredded the Buccaneers in Week 3, passing for four touchdowns.
However, I’m not hanging my hat on Stafford’s one excellent showing against the Bucs earlier this year. Instead, I’m excited about the matchup. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Tampa Bay blitzed at the highest rate this season. Thankfully, Stafford was an assassin against the blitz. According to Pro Football Focus, Stafford completed 74.6% of his passes, averaging 9.4 yards per pass attempt, twirling 12 touchdowns, and throwing only one interception when blitzed.
The play calling is ideal for Stafford throwing for multiple touchdowns, too. According to Sharp Football Stats, from 10 yards to scoring or closer, the Rams passed at the second-highest rate (57%). In addition, the Bucs have been easier to score on through the air than on the ground, yielding 26 passing touchdowns and only 11 rushing touchdowns. Finally, the pace should be conducive to scoring. According to Football Outsiders, the Rams played at the fourth-fastest situation neutral pace, and the Bucs played at the second-fastest pace. Admittedly, I’m not crazy about the short odds, but I love Stafford’s chances of tossing multiple touchdowns. Further, I’m intrigued by using it in a same-game parlay with a forthcoming suggested wager.
Devin Singletary Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
The Bills and Chiefs are also likely to play at a blistering pace, enhancing the odds of the skill players going over their props. The Bills played at the ninth-fastest situation neutral pace, and the Chiefs played at the third-fastest pace.
Devin Singletary emerged as Buffalo’s bell-cow back down the stretch, making him an integral figure in Sunday night’s AFC Divisional Round contest. According to Pro Football Focus, since Week 14, Singletary has been fourth on the Bills in routes run (174), turning his usage into 17 receptions for 123 yards on 19 targets. Unfortunately, Singletary had more than 20.5 receiving yards in only half of those games.
Nonetheless, a matchup with the Chiefs turns this from a coin flip to a good move to bet on Singletary’s over. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Kansas City coughed up the fourth-most receptions (109) and third-most receiving yards (887) to running backs, amounting to per-game averages of 6.41 receptions and 52.18 receiving yards. Finally, while Singletary was held to negative-two yards on his only reception against the Chiefs in Week 5, Zack Moss reeled in three of four targets for 55 yards. Thus, now that Singletary has taken the backfield primarily for himself, I expect him to enjoy more success through the air in the rematch.
Tyler Higbee to Score Anytime Touchdown (+250)
Tyler Higbee scoring a touchdown is the wager I alluded to parlaying with Stafford’s touchdown prop. However, I also love it as a standalone play. His odds of scoring are enhanced by the Rams’ pass-happy tendency inside the 10-yard line as Stafford’s odds of tossing touchdowns are boosted.
In addition, Higbee is a popular target in the red zone. According to FantasyPros, Higbee’s 20 targets in the red zone in 15 games were tied for the second-most among tight ends in the regular season.
Additionally, Higbee has climbed to the second option in the passing attack for the Rams. In his previous five games, he has been second on the Rams in routes (147), targets (30), receptions (25), and receiving yards (259), scoring two touchdowns. Finally, Higbee scored a touchdown against the Bucs in the first meeting. So, he’s not a stranger to pay dirt in this matchup. But is he a shoo-in to score a touchdown? Unfortunately, he’s not. Still, his +250 odds are enticing for a prominent pass-catching option in a game that might shoot out. Also, if you’re bullish on the Rams’ odds of winning this game as an underdog, you can bet a Higbee anytime touchdown with the Rams winning at +550 odds.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.