NFL Player Prop Bets: Picks & Predictions (Week 3)
The PROPS PROPHET HAS RETURNED as the UNDERTAKER.
Welcome to Andrew Erickson's (AKA the Props Prophet/Undertaker) Week 3 NFL player prop bets, where we dissect matchups, statistics, and trends to unearth the best player props to target. In this guide, we'll navigate the intricate landscape of player props, exploring enticing wagers, insightful predictions, and strategies to help you gain the upper hand in your Week 3 betting. Let's go!
Erickson's Week 3 NFL Player Prop Bets
De’Von Achane OVER 25.5 receiving yards
There’s not a single receiving yards prop I love more than the OVER on De’Von Achane. No Raheem Mostert (trending in that direction as he is listed as doubtful) means a full workload for Achane. And Skylar Thompson at QB projects for plenty of short quick passes to Achane. The Dolphins RB has 14 targets in the last two games, averaging nearly 73 receiving yards per game. Slam the OVER and bet the alternate up to 70 receiving yards.
Jalen Hurts OVER 40.5 rushing yards
Considering I haven't been profitable handicapping New Orleans Saints games, I am likely going to allocate the majority of my funds toward the props market in their Week 3 contest. Specifically, Jalen Hurts' rushing yards. Dennis Allen's defense has always been vulnerable against mobile QBs. In 2023, they ranked 3rd in QB rushing yards allowed. In two of Hurts' prior games against Allen's Saints defenses, he's rushed for two of the HIGHEST rushing yardage totals of his NFL career (106,69) including 18 carries in each contest. Hurts - fresh off an 85-yard rushing performance and 13 carries - should continue to terrorize Allen's defense with his legs.
Chris Olave OVER 4.5 receptions
Chris Olave had one of the highest target rates per route run during the NFL preseason. In Week 2, he had 53% percent air yards share and 38% target rate per route run.
But he's been relatively uninvolved with his counting stats due to the Saints' lack of total pass attempts. In a more back-and-forth contest, Olave should fly over 4.5 receptions. He had 4 catches on the Saints' first drive in the second half of Week 2.
George Pickens OVER 47.5 receiving yards
George Pickens only caught two of four targets (20% target share) for 29 yards in Week 2. At a quick glance, it's easy to write this stat line as "Pat Surtain treatment." Not quite. Pickens had a 51-yard catch (with Surtain in coverage) wiped away due to a holding penalty away from the play.
He has another TD call nullified because of OPI on Van Jefferson. Fields also missed him deep twice. Essentially, he had one the best games I've seen from a WR that resulted in a stat line of 2 catches for 29 yards. If you go back and consider the penalties etc., Pickens was closer to a monster game with 135 yards.
The current receiving line doesn't accurately portray his abilities and upside weekly. He has a 26% target share this season along with the 4th-highest air yards share in the NFL (53%). The Chargers defense also runs zone coverage at the third-highest rate in the NFL. Pickens ranks 12th in the NFL in yards per route run against zone coverage per Fantasy Points data.
Aaron Jones UNDER 48.5 rushing yards
The Houston Texans are a no-joke run defense. Per Next Gen Stats, Houston allowed Bears running backs in Week 2 to gain more yards than expected on just one of 16 rushes (6.3%), their lowest rate of runs over expected since 2018. In 2023, the Texans allowed -270 RYOE to opposing running backs, the fewest in the NFL and the 3rd-fewest over the last six seasons. With Aaron Jones in a committee with Ty Chandler, the under on his rushing yardage is the clear play here.
Stefon Diggs OVER 4.5 receptions
Stefon Diggs had six targets (17% target share), catching 4 passes for 37 yards in Week 2. Diggs has gone under 49.5 receiving yards in four straight games.
Dell failed to go over 3.5 receptions for just the second time since Week 9 of last season in Week 2. Both Diggs and Tank Dell disappointed versus the Bears and have posted modest target rates (bottom 50) through two games.
However, given a matchup against the blitz-heavy Minnesota Vikings in Week 3, I'd expect both guys to be more involved as C.J. Stroud's quick outlet. I project Diggs to have a busy day given his low average depth of target. His receptions prop line is set at 4.5, with plus money toward the over.
Javonte Williams UNDER 45.5 rushing yards
Javonte Williams has finished under 45.5 rushing yards in 6 straight games. He has 40 rushing yards COMBINED in the last two weeks.
Zamir White OVER 14.5 rushing attempts
Head coach Antonio Pierce has been disappointed by a lack of rushing and a new zone-blocking scheme. The Raiders head coach has pointed more blame on the blocking upfront, but Zamir White just looks like a poor fit in this scheme. They brought in Alexander Mattison for a reason, and he's looked like a much better rusher.
But Pierce is doubling down on his commitment to White. As noted in the Week 3 BettingPros Primer…”Our goal is to get 20+ touches with him [White].”
It's Pierce's goal (if not mission) to get White over this number. The BettingPros Projections agree, with White slated for 16 rushing attempts.
Jaylen Waddle OVER 3.5 receptions
I fully expected the Dolphins to implement a quick passing game with Thompson at QB. Before Tagovailoa's injury, he had the quickest time to throw in the NFL. Jaylen Waddle should remain a staple in that strategy. Since the start of 2023, Waddle has finished with under 3.5 catches in just three games. Two were against the Chiefs.
Sam LaPorta UNDER 4.5 receptions
Sam LaPorta has taken a backseat in the Lions' offense due to the emergence of Jameson Williams. He's been under 4.5 catches in both games this season. And last year when Williams played he went over 4.5 catches in just 53% of his games. Given that Arizona has allowed a combined just 2 catches to opposing No. 1 TEs this season, the UNDER on LaPorta is the move.
Ezekiel Elliott UNDER 32.5 rushing yards
Rico Dowdle led the ground attack for Dallas in Week 2 with seven carries for 30 yards, averaging 4.3 yards per carry. He started and had the first carry. Ezekiel Elliott carried the ball six times for 16 yards. Deuce Vaughn had four rushes for 11 yards. Dowdle contributed to the passing game, too, catching four of five targets for 29 yards.
The snaps were 43 percent for Dowdle, 40 percent for Elliott, and 14 percent for Vaughn. Elliott ran the most routes.
It's an ugly 3-way committee that nobody can confidently project the usage. As a result, I'll take the under on Elliott's rushing prop. Both RBs to face Baltimore this season went UNDER their rushing totals by more than 13 yards.
Kirk Cousins UNDER 32.5 pass attempts
If Saquon Barkley catches that pass from Jalen Hurts on Monday night, Kirk Cousins would have attempted just 23 passes. The final 2-minute drive boosted his final numbers. He's finished under his pass attempts prop line of 33.5 twice already this season, as the Falcons have been more run-heavy the most projected this offseason. Through two games, they rank 27th in pass rate over expectation (-11%). It's possible this increases as Cousins gets more comfortable in the offense, but it's so clear that this offense wants to run through Bijan Robinson. Even at 32.5 pass attempts, I love the under.
Anytime TD/1st TD Bets
Check out our Anytime TD and First TD reports to help guide your touchdown betting for Week 3.
Josh Jacobs anytime TD (-130)
Josh Jacobs leads the NFL in red-zone carries without a touchdown score (7). This backfield had similar issues scoring last season in the red zone, so eventually, the regression is going to kick in.
Diontae Johnson anytime TD (+310)
Diontae Johnson had six targets in Week 2 but only caught three for 15 yards. Johnson has three red-zone targets this season and zero touchdowns. With Andy Dalton leading the charge, DJ’s TD odds change dramatically.
Brandon Aiyuk anytime TD (+130)
Brandon Aiyuk has four red-zone targets so far this season but zero TDs. With so many 49ers hurt, he will be the primary read in the red zone. +700 for the first TD.
Jameson Williams anytime TD (+190)
Jared Goff leads the NFL in red-zone pass attempts without a red-zone TD thrown (19). Williams was targeted four times in the red zone in Week 2. He is tied with Courtland Sutton for the red-zone targets this season without a red-zone TD score. +1300 for the first TD.
Khalil Herbert anytime TD (+380)
The Colts boast the NFL’s worst run defense. Khalil Herbert scored from the red zone (as the Bears' preferred short-yardage back) in Week 2. Even if D’Andre Swift rushes for more yards, Herbert might be the one that cashes in the red zone. +1400 for the first TD.
Travis Kelce anytime TD (+135)
Without Isiah Pacheco, I expect the Chiefs to rev up their pass rate in the red zone. Travis Kelce has come close to scoring in back-to-back weeks but has fallen just short of paydirt. The cold spell ends on Sunday Night versus the Falcons. +850 for the first TD.
Julian Hill anytime TD (+1300)
Julian Hill saw two red-zone targets but did not score in Week 2. This is the most galaxy-brained play among the bunch.