NFL Player Prop Bets: Super Bowl LVI (2022)
Once again, I'm using DraftKings Sportsbook for props because of the volume they have to choose from. Still, I suggest that you do some line shopping for more favorable player totals across multiple sportsbooks if you have time. For instance, finding a lower yardage number for a player prop you like enhances your odds of cashing the over. Conversely, if you want an under and find a higher yardage total, the same idea applies.
Let's take a look at a few player props for the Super Bowl that caught my attention.
Check out all of our Super Bowl LVI coverage >>
Jersey Number of First Touchdown Scorer Under 23.5 (-140)
One of the joys of the Super Bowl is the vast menu of prop bets. The things you can wager on are seemingly limitless. In that vein, a jersey number prop for the first touchdown scorer caught my attention. I love the under for 23.5 for the jersey number of the first touchdown scorer in the Super Bowl.
First, you’re getting the biggest betting favorite to be the first touchdown scorer. Cooper Kupp has the shortest odds to score the first touchdown at +500. Second, you’re getting three more players from the top-five shortest odds to score the first touchdown, with Cam Akers (+750) tied for second, Ja’Marr Chase (+800) third, and Odell Beckham Jr. (+900) fifth. As a result, you’re getting four of the five players that have odds to be the first touchdown scorer under +1000 by wagering on this prop.
Additionally, Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford are candidates to score on sneaks, the six cornerbacks that play the most snaps for both teams have a jersey number under 23.5, Rams’ kickoff and punt returner Brandon Powell’s jersey number is 19, and Cincinnati’s postseason punt returner Trent Taylor’s jersey number is 11. Frankly, -140 doesn’t feel like short enough odds for covering so many bases. Sure, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, a tight end, or a big-guy touchdown to open the touchdown scoring is possible. However, I’ll gladly take the heavy hitters who sport a jersey under 23.5 as the horses I’m backing for the first touchdown.
Pick: Under 23.5 (-140)
Joe Mixon Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Much of the talk leading up to the Super Bowl from analysts has revolved around Cincinnati’s offensive line being massively outgunned by the Rams’ loaded defensive front — spoiler alert, there’s more on that to come. One way the Bengals can avoid getting Burrow killed is to get the ball out quick, including chucking it to Mixon out of the backfield.
Mixon has played a sizable role in the passing game down the stretch. According to Pro Football Focus, in his last five games (Week 16, Week 17, and the postseason), Mixon has run 129 routes versus only 48 for Samaje Perine. In addition, Mixon has parlayed his newfound role in the passing game into 29 targets, 26 receptions, and 216 receiving yards. Moreover, you have to go back to Week 15 for the last time Mixon had fewer than 25.5 receiving yards in a game.
The matchup is suitable for Mixon amassing more than 25.5 receiving yards, too. The Rams have mostly put the clamps on explosive passes. According to Sharp Football Stats, they have allowed the 10th-lowest average explosive pass rate (eight percent).
In addition, running back have done moderately well against them as pass-catchers. According to Pro-Football-Reference, running backs averaged 37.12 receiving yards per game against the Rams in the regular season. In the postseason, the running backs they have faced have had 31 receiving yards in the Wild Card Round, 56 receiving yards in the Divisional Round, and 56 yards in the Conference Championship Round. Finally, the projections at FantasyPros are calling for 27.8 receiving yards from Mixon, putting him over his yardage prop.
Pick: Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Los Angeles Rams Over 3.5 Sacks (+105)
As I promised, the Rams’ matchup advantage against Cincinnati’s offensive line is making another appearance in this piece. The Bengals have struggled mightily in pass protection this year.
First, according to Pro Football Focus’s pass-blocking grade, the Bengals have been the eight-worst team protecting their quarterback. However, Football Outsiders has been even more critical of their work, saddling them with the second-highest Adjusted Sack Rate (9.1%).
In addition, the Bengals’ pass-protection woes show up in their traditional sack numbers as well. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Bengals allowed the third-most sacks (55) in the regular season. Further, Burrow had the fifth-highest sack rate (8.9%) among qualified quarterbacks.
The Rams are equipped to exploit Cincinnati’s pass-protection shortcomings, evidenced by the regular season’s third-most sacks (50). Additionally, Pro Football Focus has graded the Rams as the best pass-rushing team this year.
Finally, according to our consensus line, the Rams are 4.0-point favorites, setting the stage for Los Angeles to pin their ears back and get after Burrow if the game goes as the betting market suggests. Further, Burrow was sacked more than 3.5 times in only six of 19 games this year. However, he was sacked more than 3.5 times in four of his six losses this year. Thus, this is an even more attractive bet if you think the Rams are winning the Super Bowl.
Pick: Over 3.5 Sacks (+105)
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.