NFL Player Prop Bets: Week 10 (2021)
Once again, I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook for props because of the volume they have to choose from. Still, I suggest that you do some line shopping for more favorable player totals across multiple sportsbooks if you have time. For instance, finding a lower yardage number for a player prop you like enhances your odds of cashing the over. Conversely, if you want an under and find a higher yardage total, the same idea applies.
Let’s take a look at a few player props for Week 10 that caught my attention.
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Mike Evans over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The Buccaneers are down at least two key pass-catchers, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski. In addition, Chris Godwin is a game-time decision. Nevertheless, I like Mike Evans’ outlook for clearing 76.5 receiving yards against the Football Team this week.
Tampa Bay deploys a pass-happy, up-tempo offense. According to Sharp Football Stats, when the offensive scoring margin is between trailing by seven points and leading by seven points, the Bucs pass at the second-highest rate (67%). As for their pace of play, according to Football Outsiders, the Bucs are playing at the sixth-fastest situation neutral pace of play. The combo of a pass-happy attack and speedy offense is ideal for Evans eclipsing his yardage prop.
Further, he has a dreamy matchup. The Football Team is 31st in pass defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Finally, Evans is mostly excelling in games without Brown. He’s totaled 106 receiving yards, 76 receiving yards, and 48 receiving yards in the three games without Brown this season. Sure, he’s only gone over 76.5 receiving yards in one of those three games. However, he fell just a half-yard short in a blowout win in one of those games, and Godwin wasn’t entering the contest a game-time decision.
Thus, I love Evans’ odds of tearing the Football Team up this week. As an added boost of confidence, FantasyPros is projecting Evans for 82.6 receiving yards this week.
Courtland Sutton under 3.5 Receptions (+115)
Courtland Sutton is a volatile receiver. He has produced boom-or-bust weeks this year. Unfortunately for him, his production has been lean when sharing the lineup with Jerry Jeudy.
The dynamic receiving duo has played three games together this year. In those games, Sutton has catch totals of one, two, and one. Further, he’s been targeted three times, four times, and two times in those contests. Yikes. He’s virtually non-existent when Jeudy is on the gridiron with him.
The matchup isn’t likely to do Sutton any favors this week, either. According to Sports Info Solutions, among players targeted at least 25 times this year, Sutton’s average depth of target of 16.0 yards downfield is the fifth-deepest mark. Moreover, his opponent, the Eagles, is putting the clamps on big passing plays this season. According to Sharp Football Stats, Philadelphia allows the fourth-lowest average explosive pass rate (six percent).
So, this isn’t a favorable matchup for Sutton turning his production around. Therefore, I love the under for 3.5 receptions by Sutton this week.
Taysom Hill Anytime Scorer (+350)
Sean Payton has announced Trevor Siemian is starting at quarterback again for the Saints this week. However, he’s also revealed the Saints have a “number of packages†for Hill this week.
Alvin Kamara is out in Week 10. Therefore, it isn’t outrageous to think Payton will call Hill’s number in scoring territory. Even playing with Kamara this year, Hill has carved out a role in the red zone. According to FantasyPros, Hills has carried the ball six times, scoring three touchdowns inside the 10-yard line this season.
Last year, Hill scored eight rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown. In 2019, Payton used Hill more frequently as a receiver, resulting in six touchdown receptions. Hill’s a versatile weapon that Payton clearly values in that area of the field. When factoring in Kamara’s absence this week, getting +350 odds for Hill reaching paydirt feels like a gift.
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including How to Bet on Sports — or head to more advanced strategy — like 10 Tips to Become a Sharper Sports Bettor — to learn more.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.