NFL Player Prop Bets: Week 11 (2021)
Once again, I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook for props because of the volume they have to choose from. Still, I suggest that you do some line shopping for more favorable player totals across multiple sportsbooks if you have time. For instance, finding a lower yardage number for a player prop you like enhances your odds of cashing the over. Conversely, if you want an under and find a higher yardage total, the same idea applies.
Let’s take a look at a few player props for Week 11 that caught my attention.
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Derek Carr Under 295.5 Passing Yards (-115)
The Raiders have dealt with adversity due to notable coaching and personnel changes. After Jon Gruden resigned, Derek Carr initially played well, passing for 341 yards and 323 yards in Week 6 and Week 7. However, he’s notably stumbling without field-stretcher Henry Ruggs III.
In two games without his former teammate, Carr passed for 296 yards and 261 yards. Further, according to Stat Head, Carr’s Adjusted Yards per Pass Attempt (AY/A) took a nosedive from 8.59 AY/A in Week 1 through Week 7 to 5.95 AY/A in Week 9 and Week 10 (the Raiders had their bye in Week 8).
Thus, he barely surpassed his Week 11 yardage prop of 295.5 passing yards in Week 9 before coming up well in Week 10. Additionally, hitting his under is aided by the likely pace this game will be played at. According to Football Outsiders, the Raiders are playing at the 13th-fastest situation neutral pace. However, the Bengals are playing at the second-slowest situation neutral pace. Therefore, I expect the Bengals to drag Las Vegas’ play total down, depressing Carr’s passing yardage potential. So, I like the odds of Carr continuing to find the sledding tough without Ruggs and pass for fewer than 295.5 yards.
Cedrick Wilson Under 2.5 Receptions (+125)
The Cowboys were dealt a blow on Friday afternoon. Amari Cooper reportedly tested positive for COVID-19, so he’ll miss this week’s expected shootout against the Chiefs. Cooper’s absence paves the way to others stepping up in his stead in the passing attack. However, I still expect Cedrick Wilson to go under 2.5 receptions.
Wilson carved out a modest role as the team’s third receiver when Michael Gallup was out from Week 2 through Week 9. During that timeframe, Wilson also played six games with Dak Prescott (the Cowboys were on bye in Week 7, and Prescott was out in Week 8). In Week 2 through Week 6 and Week 9 with Gallup out and Prescott starting, Wilson was fourth on the Cowboys in routes (153), per Pro Football Focus. He also bested 2.5 receptions only one time in those six games.
Even if I expect Wilson to play the same role he did without Gallup, I will select his under. However, I don’t think he’s going to play as prominent a role with Cooper out. Wilson aligned in the slot on 88.1% of his passing snaps and wide only 11.9% of the time. However, CeeDee Lamb ripped the Falcons last week after regularly moving back into the slot with Cooper and Gallup operating on the perimeter.
Given the late-week addition of Cooper to the reserve/COVID-19 list and Lamb’s excellence from the slot last week, I think they might opt to use him there regularly again this week. So, that might mean more of Noah Brown and Malik Turner if they prefer to use them on the perimeter. Interestingly, Brown and Turner ran nine routes and eight routes, respectively, in Week 10 compared to only one for Wilson. Obviously, the game was a blowout, which might be the more significant contributing factor to the route discrepancy. Nevertheless, the potential for a rotation of wideouts behind Lamb and Gallup provides me added confidence in touting this under. Further, the projections at FantasyPros are aboard this under, too, projecting him for only 1.4 receptions.
Byron Pringle Anytime Touchdown (+380)
Let’s look at the same game and another muddied receiver situation. Actually, maybe Kansas City’s receiver situation isn’t muddied at all. Byron Pringle set a season-high playing time percentage at 61% in Week 10, per the snap counts at FantasyPros. Meanwhile, Mecole Hardman played a season-low 32% of the team’s offensive snaps.
In addition, Hardman ran a season-low 17 routes, and Pringle ran a season-high 34 routes last week. As a result, it looks like Pringle might have overtaken Hardman on the depth chart. Also, he aided his cause to continue to run ahead of Hardman by reeling in four of five targets for 46 yards and a touchdown. The touchdown was Pringle’s third this year.
Kansas City’s pass-heavy tendencies near the end zone enhance Pringle’s odds of scoring a touchdown. According to the red zone stats at FantasyPros, the Chiefs have attempted 34 passes and only 20 runs inside the 10-yard line. Pringle hauled in one of those targets for a touchdown.
Can Pringle find paydirt this week? I like the long odds he offers in a projected shootout. The Chiefs are 2.5-point favorites in a game with an over/under of 56.5 points. Thus, the Chiefs have a gaudy implied total of 29.5 points. Making a small wager on Pringle scoring a touchdown at +380 is attractive.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.