NFL Player Prop Bets: Week 12 (2021)
Once again, I’m using DraftKings Sportsbook for props because of the volume they have to choose from. Still, I suggest that you do some line shopping for more favorable player totals across multiple sportsbooks if you have time. For instance, finding a lower yardage number for a player prop you like enhances your odds of cashing the over. Conversely, if you want an under and find a higher yardage total, the same idea applies.
Let’s take a look at a few player props for Week 11 that caught my attention.
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
James Washington Under 2.5 Receptions (-175)
Even with prominent pass-catchers in Pittsburgh’s offense missing time this year, James Washington hasn’t been able to carve out a significant role in the passing attack. According to Pro Football Focus, in the Steelers’ previous three games, Washington has run the second-most routes on the Steelers (110). However, even with tight end Eric Ebron and wide receiver Chase Claypool missing a game in that stretch, Washington garnered only 11 targets, resulting in just five receptions.
Last week, Washington ran the third-most routes (37) in a shootout, and he totaled three targets, netting two receptions. Pittsburgh’s frantic comeback in a high-scoring affair led to Ben Roethlisberger attempting 44 passes. Nevertheless, Washington couldn’t make waves in the passing game.
The fourth-year pro has gone under 2.5 receptions in seven of nine games. And, despite an opportunity to earn more usage lately, he’s struggled to do so. Thus, the under looks like a solid wager to me. Further, the FantasyPros projections agree, projecting him for 2.2 receptions this week.
D’Onta Foreman Under 45.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
D’Onta Foreman outlasted Adrian Peterson in Tennessee’s backfield. So, he has that going for him, and that’s good. Nonetheless, outlasting Peterson is probably the most positive thing you can say about Foreman’s 2021 campaign.
In a golden opportunity for success against a soft Texans’ run defense, Foreman toted the rock only seven times for 25 yards. More alarmingly, according to FantasyPros snap counts, he played only 19% of the Titans’ offensive snaps. Foreman’s season-highs in three games are 11 rush attempts and 30 rushing yards. He’s operated in two positive game scripts, totaling only 59 rushing yards on 16 attempts, despite the ideal situation.
According to our consensus line, the Titans are 7.0-point underdogs. Further, the sledding will be tough on the ground even if the Titans are in a neutral or positive game script. According to Football Outsiders, the Patriots are eighth in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Additionally, the Titans are 25th in Adjusted Line Yards, per Football Outsiders. Finally, after Dontrell Hilliard outplayed Foreman last week, Hilliard may be ahead of him in the pecking order for carries. As a result, I love the under for 45.5 rushing yards for Foreman.
Mo Alie-Cox Anytime Touchdown (+380)
I love touchdown props. They offer recreational gamblers who want to dabble, like me, the best bang for your buck. And, they’re treating me well in this space this year. So, let’s go back to the well after hitting on DeSean Jackson +500 for a touchdown on Thursday.
This time, my attention is on a game projected to shoot out. The Colts are 3.0-point underdogs in a game with an over/under of 53.0 points, leaving Indy with a rock-solid implied total of 25.0 points. Of course, when the Colts are in scoring territory, they’ll likely want to feed their superstar running back, Jonathan Taylor. The second-year back scored five touchdowns last week. He leads the league in rushing and receiving touchdowns combined (15).
However, the Bucs will make it challenging for Taylor to scamper into the end zone. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Tampa Bay is tied for the third-fewest rushing touchdowns (four) allowed to running backs. So instead, it might behoove the Colts to attack them through the air in scoring territory.
If they attempt the path of least resistance against the Bucs in scoring territory, that bodes well for Mo Alie-Cox. According to FantasyPros’ red zone stats, Alie-Cox has been targeted five times inside the 15-yard line, scoring three touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Bucs have allowed four receiving touchdowns in 10 games to tight ends this year. The 6-foot-5 monster tight end has scored four touchdowns this year, and I believe he’s worth sprinkling something on to reach paydirt in a likely shootout.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.